Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 4 (Dunkerque – Calais, 171.5k)

[Extinction]

That's what you saw? I saw Vingo purposely sitting on the lone Ineos guy and Primoz parked on GT. That puts a momentary damper on Ineos chasing and they had the most guys present.
Tadej wasn't in the area code when Wout and Vingo topped the hill so he must have x-ray eyes on top of Superman legs. No serious GC guys stayed involved in chasing him after he had 15 seconds. If they had their DS would be screaming into their headpiece to "let the fu*king sprinters teams work!" The GC contenders stuck with Vingo and Primoz as they should.
The odd part was MvP should have been there....

No, I saw a Vingegaard on the limit with Adam blowing, Thomas dropped and no teams capable of organizing an effective chase. Whereas with Adam and Johanas in with Wout, Ineos doesn't chase and the sprinter teams are just as inefective at bringing them back. That leaves Pogacar and UAE to work, with the result that Wout still wins and Vingegaard and Yates put time on Pogacar. Makes more sense for teams riding for GC, than merely having Van Aert win a stage. Why did Jumbo not take advantage of gaining some time on Tadej? They had him on the ropes, before a very dangerous stage today, yet they declined (or Wout declined, I don't know) to capitalize on it. As I've said, from the strategic perspective, as regards GC, it makes no sense. And why would you make the team work so hard if not to put time on rivals for a rider who is legitimately trying to win the Tour? This is not the classics. When attempting to win the Tour, you only work the team like that to gain time on GC. Again, this is not the classics.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Winning GC though would give them 10 times the return. So either they don't think they can actually do it and settle for a stage in yellow or else they are incredibly stupid.

Jumbo-Visma might have a shot at the GC in the end, or they might not. The Tour is long and full of terrors. Whichever is the case, there was at least a huge return on investment today.

The deed is done, and the caravan moves on.

 

[Extinction]

You may be right, but I do not think it's impossible that WVA could be a GC contender after Ventoux last year. The man can climb. The problem for him is whether he can sustain this level over several mountain stages, and that seems not likely. But impossible?

That is the million dollar question. Unless he changes his physiology, no. I think he is too fast to ever become a GC climbing contender. And if he were to become a GC type of climber whilst maintaining his top end speed and his world class tting, then we would be in that Extraterrestrial realm of 90s Équipe headliners, with the clinical consequences it presupposes.

 

[red_flanders]

...

Winning GC though would give them 10 times the return. So either they don't think they can actually do it and settle for a stage in yellow or else they are incredibly stupid.

Obviously they're not doing that and obviously they're not stupid. Clearly they think they can achieve both. Not sure why people think today's 1k effort is going to hurt their GC guys' chances. They attacked to see what kind of difference they could make on the GC and the stage. Every rider chasing put out at least as much effort as JV did. No impact on their GC chances, and they got a spectacular stage win, more green points, saw if they could put pressure on Pogi, and got to see who was able to follow. If they got separation on GC they'd have taken that. It's not black and white.

With Wout doing Wout things early and the GC battle later, they get incredible exposure the whole Tour. At the end of the race they'll either be stronger than Pogi or not. All this team stuff is so overplayed. The strongest wins, period.

 

[Extinction]

Jumbo-Visma might have a shot at the GC in the end, or they might not. The Tour is long and full of terrors. Whichever is the case, there was at least a huge return on investment today.

The deed is done, and the caravan moves on.

Surely, but they came to the Tour to try to win it. One might thus expect them to implement a strategy most conducive towards that end or at least not throw away an opportunity to put time on the most dangerous rival for a team member actually going for the overall win.

 

[Extinction]

...

Obviously they're not doing that and obviously they're not stupid. Clearly they think they can achieve both. Not sure why people think today's 1k effort is going to hurt their GC guys' chances. They attacked to see what kind of difference they could make on the GC and the stage. Every rider chasing put out at least as much effort as JV did. No impact on their GC chances, and they got a spectacular stage win, more green points, saw if they could put pressure on Pogi, and got to see who was able to follow. If they got separation on GC they'd have taken that. It's not black and white.

With Wout doing Wout things early and the GC battle later, they get incredible exposure the whole Tour. At the end of the race they'll either be stronger than Pogi or not. All this team stuff is so overplayed. The strongest wins, period.

I'd completely agree with you had Pogacar not actually been gapped, with no chance of getting back on terms with Vingegaard had Wout made sure he was latched on for the ride to the finish. Jumbo still gets their spectacular win and puts time on their most dangerous GC rival with it. To me that's either stupidity or hubris or both, probably the latter.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Surely, but they came to the Tour to try to win it. One might thus expect them to implement a strategy most conducive towards that end or at least not throw away an opportunity to put time on the most dangerous rival for a team member actually going for the overall win.

You believe they could have put 30 seconds into Pog. I think it would be 10 or less. I understand the saying that "every second counts in the TdF," especially after the Greg LeMond victory.

However, the TdF since Miguel Indurain is won or lost in the mountains. In the Alps or the Pyrenees, Pog is going to lift off like a rocket ship. The winner of the TdF will be determined by whether Rog, JV, or other GC contenders can go with him and beat him.

 

[Extinction]

You believe they could have put 30 seconds into Pog. I think it would be 10 or less. I understand the saying that "every second counts in the TdF," especially after the Greg LeMond victory.

However, the TdF since Miguel Indurain is won or lost in the mountains. In the Alps or the Pyrenees, Pog is going to lift off like a rocket ship. The winner of the TdF will be determined by whether Rog, JV, or other GC contenders can go with him and beat him.

Surely the Tour will be won in the mountains, but every second counts from a purely strategic point of view, both time wise and psychologically. You never throw away an opportunity to put time on rivals. Pog could crash, we don't know, or he could have a bad day, in which case perhaps a Fignon-Lemond down to the wire type of climax isn't impossible. Same for all rivals. The point is, in a strategic long-game, war of attrition, such as the Tour is, you play your cards when situations deal a winning hand. Like boxing, you strike your opponent with enough jabs to then go for the knock out punch. Yesterday could have been a nice jab in the face of Tadej for Jumbo and Vingegaard, instead the punch did not land.

 

[red_flanders]

I'd completely agree with you had Pogacar not actually been gapped, with no chance of getting back on terms with Vingegaard had Wout made sure he was latched on for the ride to the finish. Jumbo still gets their spectacular win and puts time on their most dangerous GC rival with it. To me that's either stupidity or hubris or both, probably the latter.

GC rider from JV gets away and the whole peloton chases and it's a sprint finish. They all shut it down when the GC riders came together and only sprint teams where chasing. WVA won by a few seconds. It would have been a much bigger effort for naught. Totally disagree there was "no chance" of him getting back on terms. He crested a few seconds after WVA. But the GC teams didn't chase because it was just WVA. Seems obvious.

Surely the Tour will be won in the mountains, but every second counts from a purely strategic point of view, both time wise and psychologically. You never throw away an opportunity to put time on rivals. Pog could crash, we don't know, or he could have a bad day, in which case perhaps a Fignon-Lemond down to the wire type of climax isn't impossible. Same for all rivals. The point is, in a strategic long-game, war of attrition, such as the Tour is, you play your cards when situations deal a winning hand. Like boxing, you strike your opponent with enough jabs to then go for the knock out punch. Yesterday could have been a nice jab in the face of Tadej for Jumbo and Vingegaard, instead the punch did not land.

If they had a gap they thought they could exploit, they would have, that was the point of the GC riders pushing on the climb. They didn't.

 

[Oldermanish]

No, I saw a Vingegaard on the limit with Adam blowing, Thomas dropped and no teams capable of organizing an effective chase. Whereas with Adam and Johanas in with Wout, Ineos doesn't chase and the sprinter teams are just as inefective at bringing them back. That leaves Pogacar and UAE to work, with the result that Wout still wins and Vingegaard and Yates put time on Pogacar. Makes more sense for teams riding for GC, than merely having Van Aert win a stage. Why did Jumbo not take advantage of gaining some time on Tadej? They had him on the ropes, before a very dangerous stage today, yet they declined (or Wout declined, I don't know) to capitalize on it. As I've said, from the strategic perspective, as regards GC, it makes no sense. And why would you make the team work so hard if not to put time on rivals for a rider who is legitimately trying to win the Tour? This is not the classics. When attempting to win the Tour, you only work the team like that to gain time on GC. Again, this is not the classics.

So we saw the same thing. Jonas or Primoz attempting to get to Wout only riles up the opposition and that would include all GC teams. As it was they could force somebody to chase Wout in a disorganized way to assure the win; which they did. Wout was more than capable of making it to the finish and it's questionable how much help he'd need or get from a teammate. They made that decision in a heartbeat and it worked. Having the whole field chase them would have brought everyone back and the few seconds Wout had in hand is not going to dent Tadej's prospects one bit.
By the way....JV didn't work hard at all until they approached the hill. Ineos did. Unless there were different camera angles than what was broadcast here. Your last line only makes sense if you have the hands away winner of the Tour and know he'll never crash.
Which team has that rider? None of them.

 

[Oldermanish]

Surely the Tour will be won in the mountains, but every second counts from a purely strategic point of view, both time wise and psychologically. You never throw away an opportunity to put time on rivals. Pog could crash, we don't know, or he could have a bad day, in which case perhaps a Fignon-Lemond down to the wire type of climax isn't impossible. Same for all rivals. The point is, in a strategic long-game, war of attrition, such as the Tour is, you play your cards when situations deal a winning hand. Like boxing, you strike your opponent with enough jabs to then go for the knock out punch. Yesterday could have been a nice jab in the face of Tadej for Jumbo and Vingegaard, instead the punch did not land.

Trying to tire out your GC rival in the first week when everyone fresh likely will pay less dividends than the pack splits coming tomorrow. JV has a better hand to play on the cobbles and that makes strategic sense. The psychology of it all plays out when it plays out; there's no pressure on UAE yet. Tomorrow may be a different deal and I like JV's odds with a fresh team.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Shut up, Chris would still drop you like a sack of potatoes.

Dude, my mother would drop me like a sack of potatoes. Chill, it was a joke, I'm rooting for him to do well (yes, I have had a midweek drink).

 

[Extinction]

GC rider from JV gets away and the whole peloton chases and it's a sprint finish. They all shut it down when the GC riders came together and only sprint teams where chasing. WVA won by a few seconds. It would have been a much bigger effort for naught. Totally disagree there was "no chance" of him getting back on terms. He crested a few seconds after WVA. But the GC teams didn't chase because it was just WVA. Seems obvious.

If they had a gap they thought they could exploit, they would have, that was the point of the GC riders pushing on the climb. They didn't.

I don't know, with three rotating and the two strongest teams not chasing behind, I think they could have made it.

 

[Extinction]

You

So we saw the same thing. Jonas or Primoz attempting to get to Wout only riles up the opposition and that would include all GC teams. As it was they could force somebody to chase Wout in a disorganized way to assure the win; which they did. Wout was more than capable of making it to the finish and it's questionable how much help he'd need or get from a teammate. They made that decision in a heartbeat and it worked. Having the whole field chase them would have brought everyone back and the few seconds Wout had in hand is not going to dent Tadej's prospects one bit.
By the way....JV didn't work hard at all until they approached the hill. Ineos did. Unless there were different camera angles than what was broadcast here. Your last line only makes sense if you have the hands away winner of the Tour and know he'll never crash.
Which team has that rider? None of them.

Ok, you and Red Flanders make good points. Perhaps I'm underestimating the effectiveness of the field to pull back the break had Vingegaard been ahead too. Still, Wout on his own at one point had quasi half a minute I think, thus it seemed to me that with a bit more horsepower, a trio could have arrived with time in hand and this would have psychologically benefited Jumbo going into today's stage more than having Wout just win alone.

Anyway, the stage was entertaining so hopefully today's will be even more so.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That is the million dollar question. Unless he changes his physiology, no. I think he is too fast to ever become a GC climbing contender. And if he were to become a GC type of climber whilst maintaining his top end speed and his world class tting, then we would be in that Extraterrestrial realm of 90s Équipe headliners, with the clinical consequences it presupposes.

I'd agree with you, other than that four years ago we had GERAINT THOMAS win the Tour de France. While van Aert's sprint speed may make Jalabert the more tempting comparison, the starting presupposition that any transformation is inherently more crazy than Geraint Thomas winning back to back MTFs en route to the maillot jaune is not one I can get behind.

 

[Animal]

Well, that was boring all the way to the last climb. Thank god for edited highlights, though they had problems filling the whole hour!

 

[Extinction]

I'd agree with you, other than that four years ago we had GERAINT THOMAS win the Tour de France. While van Aert's sprint speed may make Jalabert the more tempting comparison, the starting presupposition that any transformation is inherently more crazy than Geraint Thomas winning back to back MTFs en route to the maillot jaune is not one I can get behind.

Indeed and like Thomas, Wout has done stellar domestique work in the mountains, without though changing his physiology much. He'd still have to do that to be GC competitive. And that's where the million dollar question still has validity.

 

[Rackham]

You

Ok, you and Red Flanders make good points. Perhaps I'm underestimating the effectiveness of the field to pull back the break had Vingegaard been ahead too. Still, Wout on his own at one point had quasi half a minute I think, thus it seemed to me that with a bit more horsepower, a trio could have arrived with time in hand and this would have psychologically benefited Jumbo going into today's stage more than having Wout just win alone.

Anyway, the stage was entertaining so hopefully today's will be even more so.

These conversations are heavily biased by the names of the riders in question.

Replace Wout van Aert with Rafal Majka & Jonas Vingegaard with Tadej Pogacar & the entire internet burns down with WTF lololz if the same scenario happens with UAE.

The only reason the argument is made against waiting for Jonas is because WvA is a bigger star. That's it. Every other team fighting for GC would be expected to play the GC card if the same opportunity presents itself.

 

[tobydawq]

Thinking a guy with a lone Sanremo win is the biggest rider on Jumbo-Visma just shows you how much the debate is swayed by propaganda.

"A guy with a lone Sanremo", lol.

Yeah, there's no way to split Van Aert, Ciolek and Colombo in terms of greatness

 

[Valv.Piti]

I'd agree with you, other than that four years ago we had GERAINT THOMAS win the Tour de France. While van Aert's sprint speed may make Jalabert the more tempting comparison, the starting presupposition that any transformation is inherently more crazy than Geraint Thomas winning back to back MTFs en route to the maillot jaune is not one I can get behind.

Why do you constantly bring up Thomas and not Wiggo? I think Thomas was much less out-of-the-blue compared to the absolutely ridiculous transformation Wiggins made in 2008-2009. Thomas came along rather slowly, doing some good results here and there while mainly being on domestique-duty and seemed to me like a much better all-round rider than Wiggo ever was. And more talented also - just a better rider, really.

Dont get me wrong, Im not a big fan of what the brits refer to as 'G', but...

 

[Boes]

He should've waited for Vingegaard, because he can win the Tour.

A Tour stage isn't in the top 10 biggest wins in cycling. The Tour is the biggest one.

But we can always bet on Van Aert to take home the secondary wins.

Really harsh view.
If we follow your point of view why would anyone bring a sprinter to the tour? Lotto Soudal, QS, Bike exchange -> all silly teams going for secondary wins, right?

 

[Extinction]

These conversations are heavily biased by the names of the riders in question.

Replace Wout van Aert with Rafal Majka & Jonas Vingegaard with Tadej Pogacar & the entire internet burns down with WTF lololz if the same scenario happens with UAE.

The only reason the argument is made against waiting for Jonas is because WvA is a bigger star. That's it. Every other team fighting for GC would be expected to play the GC card if the same opportunity presents itself.

Agreed, although perhaps a Tadej-Majka combo had little chance with Jumbo chasing hard. And this was also my point, namely UAE is too collectively weak, which is why I still think Wout should have brought Vingegaard and Yates with him to the line.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Why do you constantly bring up Thomas and not Wiggo? I think Thomas was much less out-of-the-blue compared to the absolutely ridiculous transformation Wiggins made in 2008-2009. Thomas came along rather slowly, doing some good results here and there while mainly being on domestique-duty and seemed to me like a much better all-round rider than Wiggo ever was. And more talented also - just a better rider, really.

Dont get me wrong, Im not a big fan of what the brits refer to as 'G', but...

Wiggins was ludicrous in 2009, sure, but at least you could wave things away slightly by accepting he never focused on the road (he rode it but was always a track specialist), and that it wasn't too far removed from an era when the GC guys were bigger, TT-focused machines than they tend to be nowadays, until the ridiculous transformation, whereas Thomas was a road rider all along, with a decade of us knowing what his skillset was, and then he changed it completely at 29. Yes, he was no mug uphill, winning the Bayern Rundfahrt on one of its only half-decent routes, but he was also never even remotely a 'climber' until 2015. Geraint Thomas' rider type pre-transformation was more like van Aert's than Wiggins making him a more viable comparison, and Geraint Thomas was like what happens if George Hincapie had actually gone on to lead Discovery Channel after Armstrong's retirement... and won the Tour de France.

Geraint Thomas IS George Hincapie, their trajectories and rider types are strikingly similar, only he didn't just win one ridiculous mountain stage, he won two ridiculous mountain stages back to back while looking physiologically like he'd eaten most of the climbers he was dropping. And then he won the Tour de France.

 

[gavia88]

normally,

Really harsh view.
If we follow your point of view why would anyone bring a sprinter to the tour? Lotto Soudal, QS, Bike exchange -> all silly teams going for secondary wins, right?

well, sprinters are normally plan B. If a team has a serieous GC leader, normally no sprinter is in the team. Even for Cavendish at a certain moment was no place anymore at Sky. If the GC teamleader is decent (but not a certainty to podium), and the team has a really good sprinter, sometimes they bring the sprinter, but with a limited support. Only teams like Lotto, Quickstep, without a GC rider, bring a full sprint train. So yes, sprint wins over GC indead are secondary wins.

 

[Netserk]

Thought it was ridiculous btw that the camera was on Perez at the start of the climb, at that point all eyes should be on the peloton. But I suppose the French breakaway hero was more important.

Yes, it would have been great if the helicopter showed the first 20 riders of the bunch approach and start the climb.