Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

[Monsi]

I can't see this. I think (hope) you are underestimating Pogacar's level and form. I am not very concerned about his wrist now, he seems very sharp for a guy nursing a painful wrist? If Vingegaard can't put any time into Pog on this stage then he needs to try on Cauterets but that is a less suitable climb. Realistically, I think only Loze suits Vingegaard more.

I think Puy de Dome and Joux Plane are also climbs that suit Vingegaard more than Pogacar

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think Puy de Dome and Joux Plane are also climbs that suit Vingegaard more than Pogacar

Loze and Joux Plane are places where Vinge can win this Tour. I'm not sure about Puy de Dome due to lack of hard climbs before. It's more like a unipuerto stage with moderately long final climb so Vinge's advantage over Pog is questionable there. But as always, form on a given day will be decisive, we can only point to most likely scenarios.

 

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi5rK3_rTw8

 

[Pantani_lives]

Where is the time when Cipollini had to win four stages before the Tour could actually start? Now they're doing Pyrenees in the first week. The organizers have avoided a tough MTF because they don't want the GC to be decided too early.

Prediction: Van Aert takes five minutes in the break, and goes on to win the Tour.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Really does feel like there's a bit cooking under the surface with UAE and Jumbo. We should overreact to any old perceived slight on public forums and social media to try and make things worse, because it would be incredibly entertaining.

This was my favourite stage in 2020, loved watching Mythical Mark Hirschi in top form that year, he almost had it in insane fashion.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Will Adam Yates lose yellow to a Jumbo rider on this stage again or will Pogi win the stage again? Only one of those things can repeat from three years ago. I don‘t think Bernal and Landa will finish Top 5 on the stage again.

 

[saunaking]

role reversal of granon stage last year. Jonas, Pog & Yates bros all over the top of Marie Blanc alone. Simon plays G Thomas and watches the fireworks.
Adam and Pog attack Jonas until he decides to let Adam go

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I see three scenarios:
- UAE actually using Yates to attack and have Pogacar sit on. No idea how that would play out but I don't think it's too likely (sadly).
- UAE using Yates to hard pace, dropping everyone but Vingegaard, Pog and S.Yates, they go over the top together and Pog wins bonus seconds sprint plus stage.
- Same scenario as above but Vingegaard actually responds with a Watt bomb and drops everyone. I agree with @Red Rick, I don't think that's too unlikely. If he feels good why wait for Joux Plane or Loze, even if Pogacar sticks on or gets back on the flat it's still a good opportunity to get rid of Yates for the time being.

 

[Reynard]

The stage is a very good chance for Pogi to get at least a few seconds, even if he cant distance Jonas. But it should be really hard to control for UAE even more so than the PdBF stage where it was really crazy breakaway building action and in the end UAE had to go completely all out to catch Kämna on the line.

Also with the 70 kms of flat there is almost no way they prevent Jumbo from joining the break without burning through their domestiques... also you have Tourmalet tomorrow. I know Pogi is not known for holding back but maybe he learned from last year and his main goal should be to be still ahead of Jonas after Thursday. In my eyes this stage could be also better suited to win for Pogi as it will be much harder for a significant break to stay away if UAE means business, but that's always a gamble because maybe the field isn't interested on Thursday.

Nevertheless...teams like Movistar, Israel, EF, Uno-X, Total and Intermarche should try to go with numbers in the group and let all their climbers taking turns in trying to get in. Also Alaphilippe, Geschke, Martinez, van Gils or Lutsenko have to try here in my opinion. It's for me not reasonable that there is a 5 men break go away quickly and without an insane fight.

For UAE the best tactic would be to get the right rider in the break maybe through shadowing van Aert. I think Großschartner or Soler would be the best choice. Also other Teams of the Top4-10 riders will think about defensive satelites/stage win options. So aKonrad/Jungels for Bora, a Geniets/madouas for fdj, a Craddock for Jayco or a Gall/berthet for O'Conner. Depending on how is upfront I would also gift the yellow jersey away... chances are it's only for a day, but you never know. When I look at the standings van Aert seems like a obvious one, but as the last days went maybe he isn't even trying too hard for the break and we see Benoot there. Also someone really unexpected like a Steff Cras or Harold Tejada would be cool. Teuns or madouas would be other options.


Tomorrow will be again exciting racing I think. Maybe the end result is only a few second Tier guys totally blowing up like O'Connor or Bardet who didn't look to good up until now but we will see some action.

 

[Gratemans]

They are a bit nervous at Jumbo. Like today, with Vingegaard being in second wheel during most of the final.

Sure, it is good to stay out of trouble but it is still a big effort for everyone involved and in some ways... it is asking for trouble by fighting that hard for it.

Anyway, some difficult stages coming up for the remainder of the first week. Hopefully some exciting racing and entertainment.

I think he just feels like he has really great legs.

I see three scenarios:
- UAE actually using Yates to attack and have Pogacar sit on. No idea how that would play out but I don't think it's too likely (sadly).
- UAE using Yates to hard pace, dropping everyone but Vingegaard, Pog and S.Yates, they go over the top together and Pog wins bonus seconds sprint plus stage.
- Same scenario as above but Vingegaard actually responds with a Watt bomb and drops everyone. I agree with @Red Rick, I don't think that's too unlikely. If he feels good why wait for Joux Plane or Loze, even if Pogacar sticks on or gets back on the flat it's still a good opportunity to get rid of Yates for the time being.

Completely speculating here of course, I couldn't shake this line of thought : it looks like Jonas really does feel good and wants to lay down those watts while he can. A bit like Pogacar. Last year, he was co-leader and didn't seem as confident as he is now, which I believe actually helped him conserve energy to be able to peak all through the ever-so-important third week. We might just see a reversal of last year's scenario play out.

But again, this is purely speculative. I haven't got the faintest idea of how he's feeling of course.

 

[hayneplane]

If UAE do want to loan out the Maillot Jaune then personally I think Pidcock would be ideal as he is a strong rider but has yet to give any indication he can stay the course for top 5 GC over 3 weeks so not a huge threat but they would also gain the services of a strong team whose DNA has slaving on the front ingrained in them in Ineos.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Pidcock is an impossible candidate to give away the jersey. He won't be allowed into a break and wouldn't gain the time needed if he won from the favorites group.

 

[DenisMenchov]

View: https://youtu.be/GyNW-C6FBoM

 

[The Barb]

Hey all,

I'm more of a lurker than a poster nowadays but can't resist adding something here ...

While I think it is slightly more likely to be a GC Day than breakaway (maybe 60-40 or something like that) it's still a very big day for breakaway riders, particularly anyone with KOTM aspirations.

I just think this stage is tailor-made for Ruben Guerreiro.

The flat start makes the break difficult to predict but he has more power on the flat than most climbers and could therefore find himself in an otherwise weakish break. He's good on the really steep stuff (see that nuts climb in the Saudi Tour earlier this year) so I think he can cope better than most with the final 4km of the Marie Blanc. Plus, by winning the Mont Ventoux challenge (admittedly against modest opposition, like in Saudi Tour) he is more than just a puncheur, but he retains the kick necessary to pick up mountains points or win the stage from a small group. He's 12 minutes down on GC and with Mas out of the race he will have free rein.

If he isn't going all out to get into the break I would be very surprised.

A really good bet for both the stage and for KOTM in my opinion.

 

[Boehmand]

The start tomorrow is going to be craaaazy

Every single team wants to hit the break:
GC teams want guys out front, both as a safeguard and as a possible help in an attack.
Stage hunting teams want to be there, as it's an obvious chance at a stage win.
Sprinters want to be there, to make a steal on the intermediate sprint 48,8 K into the stage.

However:
GC teams want to deny other GC teams getting out in front.
Stage hunting teams will hunt down any break they missed.
Sprinters teams will shut down breaks without their sprinter, until the sprint 48,8 K into the stage.

We are bound to see insane speeds the first hour, random crashes as people jostle for position, and the break probably won't go until the early slopes of Soudet, consisting of only the strongest breakaway artists and Doms because every team is already completely gassed by then - just as they hit the first HC climb of the Tour.

Fun times ahead!

As for the GC battle, if UAE takes control and drills it up Soudet (as I expect) to keep the break within 2-3 minutes, Pogacar has designs on the last climb. Thus I expect Pog to give it a go on Marie Blanque, with Vingo glued to his wheel the entire way up, with 4 maybe 5 guys being able to stay with them (Emirates Yates, Lafay, Hindley, Skjelmose, Woods), and then halfway up the climb Lafay gets tired of the two patrons playing games with each other, and puts in a dig to take the KOM, the stage and yellow, because nobody wants to chase him until it's too late.

I don't see other GC teams than UAE or Jumbo with an aggressive strategy for the last climb - but Cofidis is not a GC team

God I love the Tour!

 

[ashhutch1997]

I think Puy de Dome and Joux Plane are also climbs that suit Vingegaard more than Pogacar

I'm not so sure, Puy de Dome I can see Pog winning a reduced MTF sprint (like LSPDBF last year), and the Col de Joux Plaine is very simular to the Col de Romme, where he destroyed everyone two years ago.
Col de la Loze yes, that suits Vingegaard more imo.

 

[Boehmand]

I'm not so sure, Puy de Dome I can see Pog winning a reduced MTF sprint (like LSPDBF last year), and the Col de Joux Plaine is very simular to the Col de Romme, where he destroyed everyone two years ago.
Col de la Loze yes, that suits Vingegaard more imo.

I think the climbs tomorrow favour Pog too.

If they had been 1.000 meters higher up in the air, or in week 3, I might feel differently, but at this stage of the race, at that height, I think Pog rules all in terms of ability.

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm not so sure, Puy de Dome I can see Pog winning a reduced MTF sprint (like LSPDBF last year), and the Col de Joux Plaine is very simular to the Col de Romme, where he destroyed everyone two years ago.
Col de la Loze yes, that suits Vingegaard more imo.

Col de joux plane is longer than col de romme.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Hey all,

I'm more of a lurker than a poster nowadays but can't resist adding something here ...

While I think it is slightly more likely to be a GC Day than breakaway (maybe 60-40 or something like that) it's still a very big day for breakaway riders, particularly anyone with KOTM aspirations.

I just think this stage is tailor-made for Ruben Guerreiro.

The flat start makes the break difficult to predict but he has more power on the flat than most climbers and could therefore find himself in an otherwise weakish break. He's good on the really steep stuff (see that nuts climb in the Saudi Tour earlier this year) so I think he can cope better than most with the final 4km of the Marie Blanc. Plus, by winning the Mont Ventoux challenge (admittedly against modest opposition, like in Saudi Tour) he is more than just a puncheur, but he retains the kick necessary to pick up mountains points or win the stage from a small group. He's 12 minutes down on GC and with Mas out of the race he will have free rein.

If he isn't going all out to get into the break I would be very surprised.

A really good bet for both the stage and for KOTM in my opinion.

Foreshadowing from the Saudi Tour?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621430505945337857

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Col de joux plane is longer than col de romme.

Only by a quarter, and the gradients - in terms of both average and consistency - are very similar - and Romme had Colombière after it with like 5 minutes of descent in between. As a stand-alone climb, definitely a better comparison than Ventoux, Granon and probably also Hautacam.

Joux Plane versus everywhere one has dropped the other in this race:

Romme - 9.0k at 9.0%, cyclingcols difficulty of 727
Tignes - 20.0k at 5.9% (excluding preceding false flat and flat final kilometre), cyclingcols difficulty of 781 (including both)
Joux Plane - 11.6k at 8.5%, cyclingcols difficulty of 858
Hautacam - 15.9k at 7.6%, cyclingcols difficulty of 960
Granon - 10.5k at 9.4%, cyclingcols difficulty of 1017 (including false flat beforehand which they didn’t do so marginally lower in practice)
Ventoux - 21.4k at 7.5%, cyclingcols difficulty of 1324

 

[Devil's Elbow]

A little more detailed analysis on this matter. Here's a graph of APM difficulty (which overrates steeper climbs, but I don't have the Cyclingcols value for the upper section of Colombière, or for this year's side of Loze) versus time gained by Pogacar on Vingegaard on the final climb of each mountain stage in the 2021 and 2022 Tours, counting Colombière as a separate climb. Bonus seconds excluded here, obviously.

And this is counting Romme and Colombière as one climb.

And this is how this year's climbs stack up (with Granon clearly underrated compared to Puy de Dôme and Grand Colombier, but whatever...):

(asterisked climbs: data from 39x28 rather than APM)

 

[Nick2413]

Vingegaard will be stronger on Marie Blanque. Bonus seconds will cancel out if Pog stays close enough to get back on for the finish, assuming the break doesn’t take them.

 

[Miha81]

I see three scenarios:
- UAE actually using Yates to attack and have Pogacar sit on. No idea how that would play out but I don't think it's too likely (sadly).
- UAE using Yates to hard pace, dropping everyone but Vingegaard, Pog and S.Yates, they go over the top together and Pog wins bonus seconds sprint plus stage.
- Same scenario as above but Vingegaard actually responds with a Watt bomb and drops everyone. I agree with @Red Rick, I don't think that's too unlikely. If he feels good why wait for Joux Plane or Loze, even if Pogacar sticks on or gets back on the flat it's still a good opportunity to get rid of Yates for the time being.

Everything can happen. I just hope for some GC action.

We will see pretty soon how things stand. For last scenario Jumbo would probably have to put some rider in breakaway to assist Vinge to the finish.

 

[Berniece]

I don’t expect much of today. Breakaway will win and the peloton will finish with a group of 20 riders

 

[SHAD0W93]

What are the odds of the forum not crashing if Vinge gets dropped?