Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 6: Tarbes - Cauterets-Cambasque, 144.9k

[Divergence]

I think the benefit of hindsight is overstated here, i.e. considering we're talking about literally the most basic tactics in cycling. Those tactics are to sit on the rival's wheel & counter. Or try to gap him & when it fails, quickly revert to a defensive position. Jumbo just went all in & never quit pulling. It was nuts.

It's okay for people to find yesterday's Jumbo assault on Pog "entertaining" but the risk far outweighed the reward. They had nearly a minute lead over their main rival in GC & blew half of it, i.e. just for the sake of pursuing the imagery of another demolition job after Granon last year. I doubt many people woke up yesterday morning after Vingegaard dropped Pog on Marie Blanque & thought "it totally makes sense to attack on the Tourmalet & go all in today!". What's the rush? If Vingegaard is a better climber, just wait & counter.

It worked last year (on Hautacam in particular).

It was a fine strategy until Jonas could not drop Pog on Tourmalet. At that point the team should have told Jonas to stop riding (much to the chagrin of many members on the forum). But, Jumbo were subsumed by all this talk about how great Vingo is and did not adapt to the situation. No surprise there as it has become typical for Jumbo to be tactically inept.

 

[Salvarani]

In hindsight, Vingegaard should have done a more uneven pace on Tourmalet. With Kelderman and Kuss pulling them clear and Van Aert ahead, he was invulnerable to any counters there and could also wait for Kuss to get back up without any UAE riders. One big attack after Kuss had pulled, then when he couldn't shake Pogi, he shouldn't have pulled him, but waited for Kuss. Then have Kuss pace a bit and launch him again. He only needed a gap of 10'' to go clear. If he couldn't drop him then, that should be a clear sign to wait for Kuss again and defend the lead he had.

He must have felt really good to try to win the most difficult way, but if it had worked it would have been brilliant. But the difference between a 25'' and 53'' lead in GC is significant. With the latter, he could afford to defend like last year the rest of the Tour. Not now.

Kelderman maybe went a little bit too fast with his pull. It went from +30 riders down to like 5 in a matter of a minute or so. Hindley even dropped before Kuss took over.

Kuss didnt pull for very long after that, because I think Kelderman put everybody close to the limit. Hence why Vingegaard was forced to attack at around 3k. Maybe would have been better for him to attack at 2-1,5k to go to the top. If he didnt drop Pog, Kuss would still have been closer and able to join on the descent. Instead he just paced the last 3k after his attack blowing up the gap to those behind.

In hindsight Kelderman should have upped the pace, but not by that much I think, and pulled for longer. It is like they were a bit too excited in a way. The whole team. Like they were trying to humiliate Pog, thinking he was really weak. Not that they were wrong for their tactics, because of the day before, but maybe a bit naive. That Vingegaard had made a big effort the day before as well and maybe wasnt gonna be as great again.

 

[Trofonios]

In hindsight, the stage wasn't perfect to break Pog. The last climb wasn't that hard so it was difficult to create a big time gap on it. And the top of Tourmalet was reached already after 98k, meaning that the riders didn't have that many meters of climbing in their legs before it.

When Vingegaard dropped Pog in the tour 2022 it was both times on the last climb after a tough stage.

If the last climb yesterday would have been a climb of the same toughness as say Hautacam the tactics of TJV would have been different of course. Tourmalet would then have been ridden with a hard pace to drain the legs but the attack would have come on the last climb after a hard lead-out by Kuss or Wout.

Of course we will never know but would Pog have managed to follow Vingegaard then? I think Pog was too fresh on Tourmalet for an attack to really bite.

 

[Nick2413]

In hindsight, the stage wasn't perfect to break Pog. The last climb wasn't that hard so it was difficult to create a big time gap on it. And the top of Tourmalet was reached already after 98k, meaning that the riders didn't have that many meters of climbing in their legs before it.

When Vingegaard dropped Pog in the tour 2022 it was both times on the last climb after a tough stage.

If the last climb yesterday would have been a climb of the same toughness as say Hautacam the tactics of TJV would have been different of course. Tourmalet would then have been ridden with a hard pace to drain the legs but the attack would have come on the last climb after a hard lead-out by Kuss or Wout.

Of course we will never know but would Pog have managed to follow Vingegaard then? I think Pog was too fresh on Tourmalet for an attack to really bite.

What about stage 5 though?

 

[Trofonios]

What about stage 5 though?

First stage in the mountains and first real test for Pog in over two months. Stage was ridden pretty hard thanks to Hindley being the break, and a tough HC-climb before Marie Blanque which was the last climb. The risk of an attack backfiring on Marie Blanque was less I think.

Also believe that Pog is a little bit more vunerable on double-digit gradients (last 4.5 on Blanque averages 10,5 %) where drafting plays a lesser role and weight a bigger one, some disagree with this, but I think it's logcial given that Vingegaard is several kilos lighter than Pog. My impression is also that Kuss did a stronger lead-out on Blanque than on Tourmalet, he pushed the pace way longer on Blanque. Maybe the hope yesterday was that Kuss would pull longer and for Vingegaard to attack with just 1-1.5k to the top, trying to get 10-15s on Pog which would have been enough with van Aert ahead.

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm starting to think that the gradients of 10/11 % or more, can suit better vingegaard to drop pogacar. Pogacar conserved some good energy, drafting in the last kms of tourmalet according to ammattipyoraily and naichaca.

 

[Nick2413]

First stage in the mountains and first real test for Pog in over two months. Stage was ridden pretty hard thanks to Hindley being the break, and a tough HC-climb before Marie Blanque which was the last climb. The risk of an attack backfiring on Marie Blanque was less I think.

Also believe that Pog is a little bit more vunerable on double-digit gradients (last 4.5 on Blanque averages 10,5 %) where drafting plays a lesser role and weight a bigger one, some disagree with this, but I think it's logcial given that Vingegaard is several kilos lighter than Pog. My impression is also that Kuss did a stronger lead-out on Blanque than on Tourmalet, he pushed the pace way longer on Blanque. Maybe the hope yesterday was that Kuss would pull longer and for Vingegaard to attack with just 1-1.5k to the top, trying to get 10-15s on Pog which would have been enough with van Aert ahead.

I think the steepness of Blanque played a part, but not buying it was any harder of a stage than yesterday. Especially after seeing the final climb, Vingegaard getting dropped so heavily on relatively shallow gradients.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It was a fine strategy until Jonas could not drop Pog on Tourmalet. At that point the team should have told Jonas to stop riding (much to the chagrin of many members on the forum). But, Jumbo were subsumed by all this talk about how great Vingo is and did not adapt to the situation. No surprise there as it has become typical for Jumbo to be tactically inept.

to be honest i'd done exactly the same after seeing Pog the day before. As would many after two days ago.

 

[Andy schleck]

I guess we all agree now that TJV f**ked up yesterday. Tactics were probably right to begin with. Vingegaard dropped Pog the day before and there was a bit of a question mark if Pog was in top shape after a non-optimal build up to the tour. Given this there was a reason to believe that Vingegaard with a strong attack could drop Pog on the Tourmalet. And if he drops him the situation was perfect with van Aert up there and no UAE doms ahead that could help Pog in the chase. Vingegaard could have gained at least 90s, the tour would have been more or less over.

The first mistake was on Tourmalet when Vingegaard continued his attack after it was clear that Pog was on a better day. It was right to go hard for about 1k to see where Pog is at, but after that Vingegaard should have backed off and let Kuss come back and pull up to the top. Second mistake was of course on the last climb where Vingegaard pulled way too long on the steeper section more or less setting up Pog for an attack. TJV sort of forgot in the end how good the situation was for Vingegaard, he had distanced Hindley by 2 minutes and was up 53s on Pog, that's great after six stages. Instead they got greedy and wanted more in a situation where Vingegaard went deep the day before and had pulled hard on Tourmalet for 3k without dropping Pog and Pog had followed wheel all day.

Grischa definitely deserves some critcism.

I subscribe your post.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Are you like, a crazy person?

i'm discussig cyclists because i like cycling, not because they are famous. And where I come from they aren't. I doubt a know a single person who could identify the current leader of the TdF.

Not content with involving yourself with cyclists drama, you are now creating it with multiple other people in this thread.
Leave me alone and out of your petty drama you weirdo.

You referred to my post, and continue to respond. Again, that introspection thing.

Also, these other posters that I am evidently in a fight to death with, all quoted or referred to my post...and I responded. Again, it's the intertubes man, arguments happen.

I'm not "involving" myself with cyclists drama...they couldn't care less what I think. I just pointed out the reasons I do not cheer for a couple of popular riders. Since you're on a crusade to deride and vanquish anyone who has an opinion about the personal traits of riders, you'd better get to addressing the multiple other posters who make those statements. I mean, there are a plethora of people who see arrogance around every corner, as it relates to a certain rider and his team. Onward Keyboard Warrior, you've got work to do!

 

[nightowl]

It’s really easy to say in hindsight that Jumbo were stupid yesterday, but I don’t think you can blame them for trying to ram home their advantage after Pogacar looked significantly below Jonas’ level the day before. Even after he held on on Tourmalet, based on Marie Blanque the day before why wouldn’t they think Pog would get smoked on the steep section of Cautarets after a hard stage?

Imagine if they had rode conservatively instead, waited for the alps to try and get a bit more time, and suddenly Pog’s shape has improved and is undroppable. And then he produces another Vosges magic trick on stage 20. The whole cycling world would be laughing at them for being cowards on stage 6 and doing a 2020 Tour repeat.

 

[Trofonios]

It’s really easy to say in hindsight that Jumbo were stupid yesterday, but I don’t think you can blame them for trying to ram home their advantage after Pogacar looked significantly below Jonas’ level the day before. Even after he held on on Tourmalet, based on Marie Blanque the day before why wouldn’t they think Pog would get smoked on the steep section of Cautarets after a hard stage?

Imagine if they had rode conservatively instead, waited for the alps to try and get a bit more time, and suddenly Pog’s shape has improved and is undroppable. And then he produces another Vosges magic trick on stage 20. The whole cycling world would be laughing at them for being cowards on stage 6 and doing a 2020 Tour repeat.

Well, Pog followed a 3k hard pull by Vingegaard on Tourmalet and didn't seem to be in major problem.
Then there is the fact that the drafting on the last climb was significant before the steep section, Pog wasn't close to the limit when Vingegaard attacked like he was the day before. Vingegaard's attack was also much weaker indicating that he was a bit laboured after the hard attack on Tourmalet and going deep the day before. Kwia even came back. At that moment Vingegaard should have backed off, realizing there was a risk he could be attacked, and instead force Pog to pull. Remember that in that moment he was 53s up on Pog in GC, a good gap.
Sure, hindsight hindsight.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Well, Pog followed a 3k hard pull by Vingegaard on Tourmalet and didn't seem to be in major problem.
Then there is the fact that the drafting on the last climb was significant before the steep section, Pog wasn't close to the limit when Vingegaard attacked like he was the day before. Vingegaard's attack was also much weaker indicating that he was a bit laboured after the hard attack on Tourmalet and going deep the day before. Kwia even came back. At that moment Vingegaard should have backed off, realizing there was a risk he could be attacked, and instead force Pog to pull. Remember that in that moment he was 53s up on Pog in GC, a good gap.
Sure, hindsight hindsight.

I think that Pogi sensed that he was stronger the moment Vingegaard put in the relatively weak attack on Cambasque. If Vinge abruptly stops pulling, i'm 100% convinced Pogi counters him and he drop further from the finish and loose even more time. The only moment it was reasonable to call off the attack was after Pogacar didn't drop at the first acceleration on Tourmalet. Past that, Jumbo and Vinge did not really had any other course of action than the one they followed.

 

[nightowl]

Well, Pog followed a 3k hard pull by Vingegaard on Tourmalet and didn't seem to be in major problem.
Then there is the fact that the drafting on the last climb was significant before the steep section, Pog wasn't close to the limit when Vingegaard attacked like he was the day before. Vingegaard's attack was also much weaker indicating that he was a bit laboured after the hard attack on Tourmalet and going deep the day before. Kwia even came back. At that moment Vingegaard should have backed off, realizing there was a risk he could be attacked, and instead force Pog to pull. Remember that in that moment he was 53s up on Pog in GC, a good gap.
Sure, hindsight hindsight.

Sure, maybe the one thing you can point out is that he should’ve backed off after his initial attack on Cautarets. But at that point it was too late, Pog was always going to attack once he realized a Jonas watt bomb wasn’t coming

 

[Trofonios]

I think that Pogi sensed that he was stronger the moment Vingegaard put in the relatively weak attack on Cambasque. If Vinge abruptly stops pulling, i'm 100% convinced Pogi counters him and he drop further from the finish and loose even more time. The only moment it was reasonable to call off the attack was after Pogacar didn't drop at the first acceleration on Tourmalet. Past that, Jumbo and Vinge did not really had any other course of action than the one they followed.

You have a point, it's possible. Would he have lost more time, not sure about that. Vingegaard pulled quiet a bit before Pog attacked. Would he have had more left in the tank if Pog attacked earlier, probably. An early attack by Pog also means that Pog have to ride longer on the steep section. I think he knowingly attacked a bit later on the steep section to create the distance and then use his higher absolute high power advantage on the flater section to gain time (he gained 15-20s on the flater part). An earlier attack was a risk also for Pog, after all you could see that also he was laboured in the end. A later attack is a shorter effort I believe he was more certain of he could manage.

Alternative is that Vingegaard doesn't attack at all and just try to follow Pog. Again, he was 53s up on Pog and had distanced Hindely with 2 minutes. That is a great situation, be content with that. You tried on Tourmalet it didn't work, ok fine, lets be happy with what you have.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Chris Horner makes a good point - Wout may not have been the best rider Jumbo could've sent up the road .

I'm starting to think we should call JV as Jumbo 95 - their tactics only work for the first 95% of the race.

 

[Elos Anjos]

You referred to my post, and continue to respond. Again, that introspection thing.

Also, these other posters that I am evidently in a fight to death with, all quoted or referred to my post...and I responded. Again, it's the intertubes man, arguments happen.

I'm not "involving" myself with cyclists drama...they couldn't care less what I think. I just pointed out the reasons I do not cheer for a couple of popular riders. Since you're on a crusade to deride and vanquish anyone who has an opinion about the personal traits of riders, you'd better get to addressing the multiple other posters who make those statements. I mean, there are a plethora of people who see arrogance around every corner, as it relates to a certain rider and his team. Onward Keyboard Warrior, you've got work to do!

Look dude, I will not call you crazy or whatever...but take it slow

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677330865666367488

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1677330865666367488

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Look dude, I will not call you crazy or whatever...but take it slow

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677330865666367488

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1677330865666367488

I'm not saying entier Mathieu or I are crazy, but only one of us has been barred from entering Australia. (just a joke, he didn't do anything to deserve that )

 

[Izzyeviel]

He was literally found half naked terrorizing young children in a hotel room....

*ducks*

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not saying entier Mathieu or I are crazy, but only one of us has been barred from entering Australia. (just a joke, he didn't do anything to deserve that )

Let's put this into the right context people.

Novak Djokovic is allowed into Australia. Mathieu van der Poel is not.