Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 1: Florence (Firenze) - Rimini, 206.0k

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Feb 20, 2010
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Gap is dropping quickly, pretty sure they will be caught. Headwind these last 15km will kill them.
Decent if not super spectacular stage regardless, but now that Pinot has retired, Bardet is under strict instructions that breaking French hearts is solely his responsibility now. He has to hang out there long enough to give them hope.
 
Jun 26, 2024
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I think it was very realistic. I'm pretty sure UAE was trying to set up just that, but when their pure doms couldn't make much of a difference they did not yet want to sacrifice their group of secondary leaders on a move that wasn't super likely to succeed anyway.
Well, were they really expecting to drop vinge or anyone with sivakov and wellens? In my book there is no secondary leader when Pogacar is racing.
 
Feb 18, 2015
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Depends on how you define success. If Pog launches on the Cat 2 and gets a group with him that works together he's always gonna win that sprint and he can reduce the pool of contenders really easily.
Really don't think he would have found a group willing to work together though. That only works if the attack is hard enough and the group sufficiently small but the peloton was not thinned out enough to achieve that. I think an attack by someone like Yates, perhaps on the penultimate climb, was always more likely anyway, but the way the race went Visma, RB and Ineos simply would have buitlt a train against which Yates wouldn't have had a chance. They simply needed to reduce the peloton more than they did but were not willing/able to do so.

I think the main problem for UAE was that they clearly wanted to keep all of Yates, Almeida and Ayuso in the peloton which already makes me think they probably should have sent a pure mountain dom instead of one of them.
 
May 6, 2021
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EF spitechasing because Healy missed the move, Bettiol got no chance against some of these guys still there.
 
May 10, 2015
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I think they will make it. This isn't a bunch sprint peloton chasing down 2 guys from the early break.
 
Mar 5, 2023
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A potential group sprint would have Mads P as a heavy favorite.

Normally yes, but he's spent a lot of energy on the climbs today, where Van Aert has looked like getting up them with ease, so I might give Van Aert a slight edge.