Tour de France Tour de France 2024 stage 17: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux - Superdévoluy, 177.8 km

[Red Rick]

Stage 17: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux - Superdévoluy, 177.8k​

At last, the race re-enters the Alps with a slightly disappointing stage. There’s nothing wrong with the Noyer-Superdévoluy combo, but to put as little as possible before it in a race with only five other mountain stages is… not the decision I would have made.

The route

Today’s stage start, Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux, wins the misleading name award: it actually doesn’t have three castles, instead it was settled prior to the Roman invasion by the Tricastini and somehow that name evolved into Trois-Châteaux over time. It has been a town since that era, and was the seat of a bishopric until the French Revolution. Today, it’s essentially your average southern French town. This will be its fifth appearance, all stage starts in the past 14 years.

There’s some ground to cover between the start and the edge of the Alps, which is reached in Nyons. Here, the riders enter the Baronnies, the least developed and (highest massifs aside) most sparsely populated area in the French Alps. There’s some decent terrain to be found here, but you wouldn’t know it from the route, which sticks to the valleys as much as possible. Of course, the riders do need to climb a pass of sorts to get from the Rhône to the Durance basin… the Col de la Saulce, the long drag out of Verclause on the stage profile.

In Serres, the route leaves the Baronnies, and the landscape becomes less depopulated. The intermediate sprint is in Veynes, the first place that can be described as a town since Nyons, over eighty kilometres back.

After a short, easy descent down Col de la Freissinouse into Gap, the actually-hard part of the stage starts. Col Bayard is the highest point of the Route Napoléon, the route through the Alps taken by the former emperor after escaping from his exile on Elba that led to his brief return to power known as the Hundred Days. It is the same climb as the more commonly-used Col de Manse until the junction to Orcières on the profile below.

There isn’t much of a descent, rather a rolling section until the bottom of the main course of the day, Col du Noyer.

After a short descent, the riders take on the HTF to Superdévoluy. As you can see, it is not hard in the slightest.

A classic budget destination, Superdévoluy is a strong contender for ugliest French ski station. As anyone who’s been to the French Alps will be able to tell you, that’s quite an achievement. It has not hosted the Tour before, but we’ve seen finishes here coming from Noyer in the 2013 and 2016 Dauphiné.

What to expect?

Huge opportunity for any climbers that manage to make the breakaway on the flat. Col du Noyer is definitely hard enough for GC action, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the big guns keep their powder dry for the final three days.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This stage has Pogacar written all over the place. How technical is the descent after Noyer? I can see Pogacar create a 30 seconds gap here.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

This stage has Pogacar written all over the place. How technical is the descent after Noyer? I can see Pogacar create a 30 seconds gap here.

Far too short to create a 30-second gap even if it was technical, which it isn't.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

After Le Lioran + Beille and with the green jersey not locked up yet, I'm a lot less confident in the break than I was at the time of writing the analysis...

 

[Psycat]

Another stage that screams Pogacar, exciting getting old kinda fast.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's narrow but not technical. Also not too steep.

Perfect for Pogacar. He can increase the gap there. I believe he will gain 6-8 seconds in the climb.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It's narrow but not technical. Also not too steep. Noyer is also much easier than Puy Mary.

Looking at the Giro - Pogacar won't be interested in this unless the break fucks itself or Alpecin keeps it together all the way until the sprint.

Pogacar undoubtedly wants to win on Isola 2000 and in the time trial

Definitely not. Might argue its easier, but not much easier. Think its about the same and If I really had to choose, I'd go Noyer

 

[Peyroteo94]

Puy Mary is

Definitely not. Might argue its easier, but not much easier. Think its about the same and If I really had to choose, I'd go Noyer

Noyer is harder. 7.5 km at 8% is no joke. Strategy will be the same for UAE.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's narrow but not technical. Also not too steep. Noyer is also much easier than Puy Mary.

Noyer - Cyclingcols coefficient of 547, APM coefficient of 159.8 (the latter going off the gradients on the official profile)
Puy Mary - Cyclingcols coefficient of 415, APM coefficient of 136
(Puy Mary + Néronne - Cyclingcols coefficient of 692, APM coefficient of 235)

So the math definitely agrees with the posts responding to you...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is the stage I kinda overlooked before, similarly to Massif Central. However I'm not expecting exciting action here. Pogacar definitely won't attack except the final stomp (if there's a chance for the stage win or just to put a few seconds into Vingo), the final weekend is too important to waste energy here. Also not sure about Vingo trying something here, for the same reason. Likely a breakaway day with mini GC fight in the last km.

 

[Offline]

This is the stage I kinda overlooked before, similarly to Massif Central. However I'm not expecting exciting action here. Pogacar definitely won't attack except the final stomp (if there's a chance for the stage win or just to put a few seconds into Vingo), the final weekend is too important to waste energy here. Also not sure about Vingo trying something here, for the same reason. Likely a breakaway day with mini GC fight in the last km.

But he can get this stage served on a plate.

Maybe Visma makes it hard for hopping he crack in the weekend.
Maybe Alpecin keep it together for the sprint for points halfway.

 

[Netserk]

It is the same climb as the more commonly-used Col de Manse until the junction to Orcières on the profile below.

They take the same short-cut as in 2015, so it's steeper.

 

[The Barb]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

 

[Netserk]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

As only a handful of riders sprints from the peloton, even an injured Girmay should be able to take ~6th in the intermediate sprint then. Not good enough when you're 32 points behind.

Alpecin either needs Philipsen in the break tomorrow or him to be strong enough to join the break and take the intermediate the day after.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Just read that Vinge has not studied this stage at all.

In that case, he will get a nice surprise.

 

[Gigs_98]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

Don't know about that. If there is a bunch sprint at the intermediate sprint Bini is very likely to get decent points, even if he's hurt. You don't claw back 32 points like that. Imo their job is to get Philipsen into a break. That said, I agree that the battle for green will be the focal point of the race for the first 115km which probably decreases the chances of a breakaway once again. That said, even if the break forms only after the intermediate sprint I still think they have a chance. I get the feeling UAE will rather try to conserve energy than go for yet another stage and I don't see anyone else controlling it. When it was looking like Pogacar might not be stronger than Vingegaard I had this stage circled as the final day that should suit Pogacar a bit better and where UAE might go for a stage win, but the prospects have changed a lot.

 

[Netserk]

Don't know about that. If there is a bunch sprint at the intermediate sprint Bini is very likely to get decent points, even if he's hurt. You don't claw back 32 points like that. Imo their job is to get Philipsen into a break. That said, I agree that the battle for green will be the focal point of the race for the first 115km which probably decreases the chances of a breakaway once again. That said, even if the break forms only after the intermediate sprint I still think they have a chance. I get the feeling UAE will rather try to conserve energy than go for yet another stage and I don't see anyone else controlling it. When it was looking like Pogacar might not be stronger than Vingegaard I had this stage circled as the final day that should suit Pogacar a bit better and where UAE might go for a stage win, but the prospects have changed a lot.

I somewhat expect Visma-LAB to go full regard and nuke all remaining climbs in the race. Keep going until someone drops.

 

[Nick2413]

If Philipsen gets in the break don’t think Intermarche alone be strong enough to pull it back for the sprint. Girmay condition could significantly affect the formation of the next couple stages.

 

[Gigs_98]

I somewhat expect Visma-LAB to go full regard and nuke all remaining climbs in the race. Keep going until someone drops.

Hm perhaps, they do basically have a rest day on stage 18, so you might as well. Or you remain conservative tomorrow before going for the ambush to end all ambushs the day after. I prefer option 2 but I also know that there's absolutely no way that's how it plays out (or is it?).

 

[Samamba]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

Philipsen is not winning the green jersey by just winning intermediate sprints when Girmay gets 2nd or 3rd. They'll have to be way more creative. Like hoping Philipsen can make the break on Thursday and Girmay is hurt so he can't. And even then it will be hard.

 

[Cookster15]

As said above Noyer at 7.5 km and 8% is no joke and is really perfect for Pogacar to launch an attack which we know he can hold to the finish. But he is riding for the double and with the final three stages beckoning he will hold fire. Small chance Visma try something. More likely a break to win.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Both Alpecin and Visma should want a break to get away with their riders in it.

 

[search]

Just read that Vinge has not studied this stage at all.

In that case, he will get a nice surprise.

before today's stage, Philipsen said that this is one for van der Poel. So he may not be the only one

 

[Heston]

I dont really see who would want to spend their whole team controlling the break here. Green jersey fight is the only thing speaking against a break, but thats only Intermache then.

Healy to finally get his stage win.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

before today's stage, Philipsen said that this is one for van der Poel. So he may not be the only one

I know very well the rare moments when you end up in an endless series of surprises and suddenly the finish line is there just before you expected it