Tour de France Tour de France 2024:Stage 21: Monaco - Nice, 21/07, 33.7k (ITT)

Sep 20, 2017
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Stage 21: Monaco - Nice, 33.7k (ITT)​

For the first time in its history, the Tour does not finish in Paris. The reasons have been more than sufficiently discussed, I think it’s much more interesting to point out that this is the first Tour to finish with a TT since 1989. It would be poetic if this Tour becomes the modern equivalent of that famed edition, but it doesn’t have the feel of being that year. Either way, with the champagne staying corked for a little bit longer, it’s actually a 21-stage race for once…

The route

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Here’s something that feels like a first, but isn’t: the final stage of a GT starting outside the national borders. In fact, I was shocked to learn that the Giro has done it no fewer than five times. Interestingly, the last time it happened, Pantani completed the first half of his double – sometimes, it really does feel like this is meant to be the year he is succeeded at last.

What hasn’t changed, is the fact that you need to be a really rich country to get to host the final stage of a GT if you’re not France, Spain or Italy. After five times in Switzerland, it’s Monaco’s time. Usually more or less independent since the Middle Ages, its modern path was shaped by the success of its famous casino. The revenues it generated meant the country could afford to stop collecting income tax, and the world’s elite have never stopped flocking here since, as it is a centre not just for tax evasion but also money laundering (and, in certain cases, vaccination avoidance). The money sloshing around the microstate has funded such endeavours as its tennis tournament (among those ranking directly below the grand slams), eight-time Ligue 1 winners and 2004 Champions League finalist AS Monaco, and above all motor sports, its hallowed Grand Prix overshadowing the aforementioned rally. In the Tour, it was last seen as the 2009 Grand Départ.

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This is definitely more a MTT than a normal TT, not at all dissimilar to the 2013 TT. After a brief flat taking in the coast, the climbing starts at the casino with the final KOM of the race, La Turbie. Imagine my annoyance when I found out at half past eleven that the Cyclingcols profile a) didn’t fully match up with the route, and b) was vague enough that I couldn’t see from where it did match up… the product of that is the profile below.

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The last actual climb of the Tour is Col d’Èze.

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After a descent that isn’t too technical, but definitely enough to make Adam Hansen seethe he can’t get it removed for the offense of being in a TT because his power is checked at the Tour, we arrive at the final intermediate, strategically positioned 5 kilometres from the line to rob the finish of its excitement. Those final 5 kilometres are a flat loop mostly on Promenade des Anglais.

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And then, mercifully, I can post this, because Nice already got its writeup on the previous stage. Thanks for reading, inform me if there are any major ****ups in this analysis, and I’ll hopefully be back at it for the Giro next year.

What to expect?

All about the GC riders, also for the stage. And then, into Olympic mode we go.
 
It could have been a compelling way to finish the Tour is it were still close, 1989 and all that, but instead it will be no more than a stage battle, albeit one where the GC podium should be the podium.

So what is the highest place in GC that will change? Mas to take 25s from Meintjes to get 19th? If he has burned too many matches today, it might be down to Skuijns vs Poels for 44th.
 
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Sep 26, 2020
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It could have been a compelling way to finish the Tour is it were still close, 1989 and all that, but instead it will be no more than a stage battle, albeit one where the GC podium should be the podium.

So what is the highest place in GC that will change? Mas to take 25s from Meintjes to get 19th? If he has burned too many matches today, it might be down to Skuijns vs Poels for 44th.

Van Wilder vs. Healy for 26th (potentially 25th if Madouas has a bad day) should be exciting, too. De Plus might overtake Carapaz for 15th, and Martin and Gall could also lose a lot of time.
 
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Sep 26, 2020
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Many stagehunting opportunities were missed

It was more in relation to his beef with Buitrago after the stage yesterday.

He tried the GC here, and it was a pretty decent effort after his injury, but he probably should have attempted to win a stage/tried to defend the KOM instead.
 
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Aug 3, 2015
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Hmm. For an avatar bet, I'm game if it's about being top-10 on the stage, to split the difference between our predictions. Duration until OGRR?
Damn I thought I could get you to take the over 15th. 10th is kinda sketchy for me, it was mostly fanboyism. But Im down, winner gets to choose the avatar for the loser
 
Jan 10, 2019
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Ayuso would’ve sealed his 2nd place here behind Pogi with a stage win.

If Pogi goes full, more than a minute on everyone.
Vingo 2nd, Remco 3th.
If he rides carefully, around 20” win.
 
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Jul 7, 2013
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This is obviously a good TT for Pogacar - a lot of climbing plus descents on his training roads. Not a typical aero TT favouring Remco. That being said, Pogacar may take it very easy on descents, he said it's a dangerous TT. So maybe one of Remco or Jonas will actually win it? I can't see anyone else challenging for victory.
 
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Apr 30, 2011
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Damn I thought I could get you to take the over 15th. 10th is kinda sketchy for me, it was mostly fanboyism. But Im down, winner gets to choose the avatar for the loser
I'll give you a respectful one. Now I hope Van Aert doesn't finish 24th again, would make me look like a chicken for not sticking with top-15.
 
May 14, 2017
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Only potential changes among the top 10 that I can imagine:

Yates 1s ahead of Rodriguez. 6th/7th.
On paper Rodriguez might be slightly better in TTs but with the climb and the trend of the last few days I think Yates defends his spot.

Ciccone 22s ahead of Buitrago. 10th/11th
Who sucks less? Buitrago obviously isn't a TT specialist but Ciccone is as bad as it gets for a GC rider. Wouldn't be suprised if Buitrago takes this.
 
Jul 4, 2023
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In every GT Pogi has ridden, he has won overall if and only if he's won a TT. So either he wins tomorrow, or we something even more crazy
 
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