Tour de France 2025 route rumours and announcements

[yaco]

i think 80-100k of ITT would only help the race at this point. the time has never been better to have two long ITT again because it would bring a third rider into contention for the overall win. everyone else is already too far back anyway.

Who is the third rider who would gap Pogacar over a long time trial. Tarling or Ganna hardly profile as GT GC riders

 

[zlev11]

Who is the third rider who would gap Pogacar over a long time trial. Tarling or Ganna hardly profile as GT GC riders

Remco, already beat him in a short TT this year. i dont think he would take 2-3 minutes either but 40-50 seconds is possible.

 

[houtdffan]

That would be a waste of the Finestre though, and if the Tour was going there I’d imagine they would want it to be a centrepiece to a stage, not the 4th last climb 75km from the finish.

Mind you it would make for an insanely hard mountain stage though

Finestre is hard enough to be the major selection even as the first climb

 

[houtdffan]

He took 13 seconds from Pogacar in a 25km ITT and suddenly it will jump to 2 or 3 minutes over 60kms. You are dreaming! There is no point comparing Landa or Aru against Contador in a 59km ITT as being comparable to Remco VS Pogacar in an ITT. Lets compare apples with apples.

it's been explained many times. Please read the posts in the threads

for starters, see the gaps between LA and JU in the first ITT in 2003 and pay attention to the splits. Those of us who have seen many long ITTs have an idea as to how the gaps expand and why you CANNOT extrapolate

 

[OlavEH]

designing a route to let Remco win by 5 minutes is just as bad as the current routes

Shocker that you don't mind that. Still stuck in the 1990s.

 

[Salvarani]

it's been explained many times. Please read the posts in the threads

for starters, see the gaps between LA and JU in the first ITT in 2003 and pay attention to the splits. Those of us who have seen many long ITTs have an idea as to how the gaps expand and why you CANNOT extrapolate

That one wasnt totally flat though... which would probably suit guys like Vinge and Pog as well.

However, the second ITT was 49km in 2003. Totally flat. Look at the gaps there.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

it's been explained many times. Please read the posts in the threads

for starters, see the gaps between LA and JU in the first ITT in 2003 and pay attention to the splits. Those of us who have seen many long ITTs have an idea as to how the gaps expand and why you CANNOT extrapolate

Still, you are cherry picking examples. OTOH one can find many of them where such "exponential" growth didn't happen in longer TTs. BTW it mathematically doesn't make sense that the gaps always grows this way: because then the difference between the 1st and let's say 50th guy would be astronomical (indicating that the latter guy was actually walking instead of riding).

 

[Netserk]

I think it may be harder to hold a good position the more tired you are and the less you train on your TT bike. I don't think that's an issue for the top-3 in the Tour though. If they can prepare well, it's just W/CdA at a different point on the power curve.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Pyrenees after first rest day, like in 2015.

That makes sense. Then you go to Bretagne shortly after the GP.

I just have a hard time seeing 9 stages in regions that are really flat. Maybe they go with a TTT and ITT, maybe Massif Central, but what has the journey to offer of interest? 2015 was kinda interesting and it could be something similar I guess with a bunch of classics-style stages.

 

[Mayomaniac]

That would be a waste of the Finestre though, and if the Tour was going there I’d imagine they would want it to be a centrepiece to a stage, not the 4th last climb 75km from the finish.

Mind you it would make for an insanely hard mountain stage though

Give me Val d'Isere-Sestriere with Finestre and I'm happy.

 

[yaco]

Remco, already beat him in a short TT this year. i dont think he would take 2-3 minutes either but 40-50 seconds is possible.

Which is what I suggested previously, though Houtdfan disagreed.

 

[fabriziobernardi]

Give me Val d'Isere-Sestriere with Finestre and I'm happy.

I'd be super happy with
Bourg saint Maurice - Sestriere (Val d'Isere-MontCenis-Finestre-Sestriere)
Alba - Granon (Agnel-Izoard-Granon)

 

[Netserk]

it's been explained many times. Please read the posts in the threads

for starters, see the gaps between LA and JU in the first ITT in 2003 and pay attention to the splits. Those of us who have seen many long ITTs have an idea as to how the gaps expand and why you CANNOT extrapolate

Going out with your planned normal pace and then finding out that you are on a bad day also happens in shorter ITTs. There's no automaticity in mispacing longer ITTs.

That said, I'm in favour of celebrating Hinault's last Tour win by having a 75 km ITT in the first week of the Tour. Where radio and powermeter are banned.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Going out with your planned normal pace and then finding out that you are on a bad day also happens in shorter ITTs. There's no automaticity in mispacing longer ITTs.

That said, I'm in favour of celebrating Hinault's last Tour win by having a 75 km ITT in the first week of the Tour. Where radio and powermeter are banned.

75k isn't possible any more under the current UCI rules is it?

 

[Netserk]

75k isn't possible any more under the current UCI rules is it?

Same ruleset was in effect when the Giro had an ITT longer than 60 km in 2009. Those are not hard rules.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I mainly want flat ITTs back not to help Remco get a bit of a buffer on Pogacar but because it does mix a few non-GC guys in contention for the stage . The last couple of years we have basically had exclusively Tour ITTs where the top 3 on the stage were also the top 3 in GC. Especially the Nice ITT was an abomination because it simply mirrored what we had seen for 3 weeks: A 20 min threshold climb, a 4 minute kicker and a 10 minute descent, very creative stuff.

Obviously 50+km ITTs would be more spicy for Remco to gain much more on Pogacar but it also literally obliterates everyone outside the big 4 for podium contention. I know that as we have just seen this seems to happen regardeless but it still remains a huge red flag for ASO. I think the most ideal but also realistic scenario would be one single flat ITT of 45km in the first half of the race. This actually rewards the specialists, does result in reasonable gaps and also spices things up early.

 

[OlavEH]

Finestre-stage could also finish on Granon, no?

It could, but it is not likely. The most likely including both would proably be either a Granon finish via Galibier, and then a stage from Briancon via Montgenevre and Finestre to Sestriere. You could also add a Sestriere or a Monceniso ascent between Montgenevre and Finestre.

 

[Netserk]

I mainly want flat ITTs back not to help Remco get a bit of a buffer on Pogacar but because it does mix a few non-GC guys in contention for the stage . The last couple of years we have basically had exclusively Tour ITTs where the top 3 on the stage were also the top 3 in GC. Especially the Nice ITT was an abomination because it simply mirrored what we had seen for 3 weeks: A 20 min threshold climb, a 4 minute kicker and a 10 minute descent, very creative stuff.

Fully agreed. And they could have opted for a more scenic route too:

Monaco > Nice (ITT)

28.7 km, +519 m. Bike ride in Monaco, Monaco-Ville

ridewithgps.com

 

[Jan the Man]

Check the 2003 TT between Armstrong and Ullrich to Cap Decouverte.

First time check they were even.
Then the gap went to 40secs at the next time check.
And 1min 36sec at the finish.

There's a clear example. If a rider is feeling weak, a 20km TT will not be enough to highlight this.

I think the opportunities to create a route that will not suit Pogacar are minimal. People are looking to the long TTs as a potential area where one GC contender (Remco) has a genuine chance of putting a good gap into him.

I don't know if we'll ever see Vingo able to challenge him in the mountains again??

True but Cap Decouverte that was a tough TT itself - and as a route would suit Pogacar

it's been explained many times. Please read the posts in the threads

for starters, see the gaps between LA and JU in the first ITT in 2003 and pay attention to the splits. Those of us who have seen many long ITTs have an idea as to how the gaps expand and why you CANNOT extrapolate

The Cap Decouverte is not an amazing example. Yes it shows the gaps grow larger the longer a TT is but it was a tough sticky TT. The TT route itself would suit Pogacar over a Remco.

Sure if you had a pancake flat TT of 55km Remco ordinary would be expected to take at least 1 minute from Pogi but it also depends on the time during tour

A 55km in first week you expect Remco to take more time than if the exact same 55km route fromed stage 19 or 20 which is what happened historically (taking your example 2003).

Remco is a better time trialist than Pogi but that doesn't necessarily mean a route full of TT Kms would see him taking masses if any time overall from Pogi.

 

[Jan the Man]

Fully agreed. And they could have opted for a more scenic route too:

Monaco > Nice (ITT)

28.7 km, +519 m. Bike ride in Monaco, Monaco-Ville

ridewithgps.com

True but this year the first TT would probably have had Ganna and Tarling fighting close with Remco?

 

[velaso montador]

What do we know of stages which are basically confirmed so far?

Can any of you studs sum it up for me please would be very appreciated

 

[Ulle97]

Unfortunately very little so far.

Stage 1- Sprint.
Stage 2- Flat but the last 20km have 3 little climbs that will cause some splits.
Stage 3- Sprint.... but could see crosswind action.

After that, nothing is confirmed.
Rumours of a Mur de Bretagne finish seem to strong. Could be stage 4 or 5.

I'd imagine they'll do Pyrenees then Alps.
Speculation of a Superbagneres finish in the Pyrenees.

The Alps are a mystery.

 

[Netserk]

What do we know of stages which are basically confirmed so far?

Can any of you studs sum it up for me please would be very appreciated

Only the first 3 stages. Two bunch sprints and a hilly finale.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Unfortunately very little so far.

Stage 1- Sprint.
Stage 2- Flat but the last 20km have 3 little climbs that will cause some splits.
Stage 3- Sprint.... but could see crosswind action.

After that, nothing is confirmed.
Rumours of a Mur de Bretagne finish seem to strong. Could be stage 4 or 5.

I'd imagine they'll do Pyrenees then Alps.
Speculation of a Superbagneres finish in the Pyrenees.

The Alps are a mystery.

Stage 4 starts in Amiens according to the Tour map posted in this thread when the Grand Départ was revealed. That would mean a Stage 4 finishing on the Mur would be at least 530 kilometers long. There‘s no way they can reach Brittany before Stage 6 or 7 with this start.

 

[OlavEH]

Unfortunately very little so far.

Stage 1- Sprint.
Stage 2- Flat but the last 20km have 3 little climbs that will cause some splits.
Stage 3- Sprint.... but could see crosswind action.

After that, nothing is confirmed.
Rumours of a Mur de Bretagne finish seem to strong. Could be stage 4 or 5.

This would probably mean a dreadful start. Continue towards the Pyrenees along the western coast, and we'll probably have something like 5-6 sprinter stages in the first 9 days.