Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 16: Montpellier to Mont Ventoux, 171.5 km

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If Pogi wants a win on Ventoux, then this stage will be over early, or if he wants to take it easy (he is over 4 minutes up on Vingegaard) then it'll be a sprint up the last km or so.
Wednesday's stage is a easy day, so maybe UAE will go all thermonuclear, so the team can sail into Paris without worries.
 
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A unipuerto stage with an epic MTF which should be easy for the GC teams to control before the big showdown.

Vingo will keep trying to crack Pogacar all the way to Paris. Reminds me of the 2022 Tour but opposite roles. Jonas will fail but it will keep the race interesting. I am with @Krzysztof_O - Pogacar to weather Vingegaard's attempts on the 10% pitches through the forest then counter to take a further 40-60s. Pogi is just too strong.

Crowds should be huge just hope they don't get in the riders' way.
 
A unipuerto stage with an epic MTF which should be easy for the GC teams to control before the big showdown.

Vingo will keep trying to crack Pogacar all the way to Paris. Reminds me of the 2022 Tour but opposite roles. Jonas will fail but it will keep the race interesting. I am with @Krzysztof_O - Pogacar to weather Vingegaard's attempts on the 10% pitches through the forest then counter to take a further 40-60s. Pogi is just too strong.

Crowds should be huge just hope they don't get in the riders' way.
He will attack between 8-7 km to the top of Ventoux.
 
It's not really a stage that invites much in the way of tactics, because of the lack of difficulty until the climb.

Visma will drill it from the bottom to find out if Pogacar is on a good day. If he is not all hell breaks loose, if he is things will settle until the last 4-5K where Vingegaard will try a time or two - and eventually one of them (likely Pogacar) might get 30-40 seconds on the other.

The Courchevel stage is where Vingegaard tries to go long range with multiple people out front.
 
I guess Visma will try to set the pace early on the climb to try and get rid of Narvaez, so that Pogacar doesn't have such a lead-out later on.
If they leave UAE to lead the pace, they will probably have a comfortable pace for Narvaez to do his thing.
And if Pogacar gets away before Chalet Reynard, he will probably gain a minute as he should have an advantage in the headwind section.
 
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For me the words Ventoux and Froome remind me of that 2016 day when it was more dangerously ventoux than usual

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