Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 16: Montpellier to Mont Ventoux, 171.5 km

[Cookster15]

I want to talk about how important pacing is at the bottom of the climb when comparing climbing records

Its a good point. Last year Jorgenson's huge pull from the bottom of PdB was a big reason why that record was shattered. It wasn't simply thanks to Pogacar and Vingegaard.

 

[search]

this is not classified as a mountain stage (coefficient 3 only), by the way, meaning the time limit is a bit lower than usual. Likely somewhere around ~24 minutes

 

[SHAD0W93]

this is not classified as a mountain stage (coefficient 3 only), by the way, meaning the time limit is a bit lower than usual. Likely somewhere around ~24 minutes

Could be a good chance for UAE to try and OTL Milan.

 

[Boehmand]

It depends on if UAE and Visma would send their teammates ahead. That is if strong break would to form and somehow Rogla to end in it, then the remaining teams behind wouldn't really stand a chance to bring it back. But i know that much more likely scenario is for GC leaders to bleed it out positioned all over the hill end some ultimately moving up and others not. In term of the GC standings.



Yeah, riders from various teams, including RBH, for example Rogla, considering he is now stage hunting.



Around ten minutes plus a stage win would work fine for Rogla. But indeed, lets not get ahead of ourselfs, moving up in GC would be splendid too, day in day out. We'll see.

Dude Roglic is in 6th, 1:16 from 4th and 1:59 from 8th - he's not going anywhere

 

[Boehmand]

this is not classified as a mountain stage (coefficient 3 only), by the way, meaning the time limit is a bit lower than usual. Likely somewhere around ~24 minutes

They are sure to change that, it would cost half the peloton.

 

[Sciatic]

Both Picnic and Arkea know their captain will be alone after 1K of Ventoux - Gall and Johannessen only have 1 teammate who can hack it on the first part of the climb but they too won't last long, especially if Visma is cooking to put pressure on Pogacar - so all 4 teams will happily burn through most their squads to keep Roglic close on the first flat 140K.

Even Rodriquez probably won't get to make the move, as EF also has a lot of classics guys they can burn through on the flat part, and Healy wants back his 9th place.

IMO the only "GC action" we will see before Ventoux, will be various GC doms trying to make the early move to get a head start.

It's also a stage IMO, where the right break can get a LOT of time, as in 15-20 minutes at the foot of the climb, and some dude none of us talk about might do an epic winning ride - Eros Poli style.

When do we still see breaks getting 15-20 minutes? Certainly not in this Tour.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Dude Roglic is in 6th, 1:16 from 4th and 1:59 from 8th - he's not going anywhere

Well, that seems doable. We'll see.

 

[Boehmand]

When do we still see breaks getting 15-20 minutes? Certainly not in this Tour.

I know, but I think this might be one where it could happen - if the mix is the right one.

There is no real need for any GC teams to ride hard ahead of Ventoux, all the climbers out of GC will hit the early break so none of their teams will chase, so if the green jersey people also hit the break and nobody inside half an hour on GC is in it, there isn't really any teams left to control the break.

 

[MagliaNera]

Could be a good chance for UAE to try and OTL Milan.

Sarcasm? Pogi will probably not refuse the green jersey in Paris if he accidentially wins it, but I cannot see him doing anything for it actively.

The only team that would have a realistic interest in OTLing Milan is Alpecin (or a delusional Intermarché), but I doubt that they will do so (or manage to). Sending MVDP in the break to gain an extra 20 points would be more likely to work out than trying to drop/completely empty Milan on the flat.

Still don't understand why MVDP didn't go for the intermediates already after stage 3.

 

[Boehmand]

Well, that seems doable. We'll see.

It would be crazy for him to spend 100-140K in the break riding hard, when his mere presence in the break would keep it within 1-2 minutes the whole way to the foot of one of the most brutal climbs in cycling.

Courchevel is where he can go long range, not tomorrow.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It would be crazy for him to spend 100-140K in the break riding hard, when his mere presence in the break would keep it within 1-2 minutes the whole way to the foot of one of the most brutal climbs in cycling.

Courchevel is where he can go long range, not tomorrow.

So better to try to punish them on the climb, for not letting him go? Fair enough.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Sarcasm? Pogi will probably not refuse the green jersey in Paris if he accidentially wins it, but I cannot see him doing anything for it actively.

The only team that would have a realistic interest in OTLing Milan is Alpecin (or a delusional Intermarché), but I doubt that they will do so (or manage to). Sending MVDP in the break to gain an extra 20 points would be more likely to work out than trying to drop/completely empty Milan on the flat.

Still don't understand why MVDP didn't go for the intermediates already after stage 3.

While not actively riding for it at the intermediates or sprint stages, especially stage 1, Pogacar has still rolled through in high placings. UAE barring bad form tomorrow want to win and will ride hard, if the time limit is only 24 mins, there’s a good chance Milan OTls either on purpose or accidently.

 

[MagliaNera]

nobody inside half an hour on GC is in it

The next episode of the epic Carlos Rodriguez vs Ben Healy vs Jordan Jegat breakaway battle for 11th in GC awaits us though, with Uno-X eventually becoming nervous and starting to pace the peloton.

 

[YavorD]

So better to try to punish them on the climb, for not letting him go? Fair enough.

I think so too.
They'll keep the break within 2 minutes, Rog will be pissed and will launch from the bottom, climbing Ventoux in 51 minutes.
Will be in yellow after the stage and his interview would be like "eh.. no risk no glory eh.you should've let the break go ehm"

 

[Gigs_98]

It's actually kinda crazy the last time a stage finished on top of Ventoux is 12 years ago. The last time Fauniera (actually Esischie but whatever) was used in the Giro was closer to the last mtf on top of Ventoux than that mtf is to now...

 

[hayneplane]

Both Picnic and Arkea know their captain will be alone after 1K of Ventoux - Gall and Johannessen only have 1 teammate who can hack it on the first part of the climb but they too won't last long, especially if Visma is cooking to put pressure on Pogacar - so all 4 teams will happily burn through most their squads to keep Roglic close on the first flat 140K.

Even Rodriquez probably won't get to make the move, as EF also has a lot of classics guys they can burn through on the flat part, and Healy wants back his 9th place.

IMO the only "GC action" we will see before Ventoux, will be various GC doms trying to make the early move to get a head start.

It's also a stage IMO, where the right break can get a LOT of time, as in 15-20 minutes at the foot of the climb, and some dude none of us talk about might do an epic winning ride - Eros Poli style.

Those kinds of shenanigans can happen on Stage 18/19 but not on this hockey stick stage.

 

[hayneplane]

this is not classified as a mountain stage (coefficient 3 only), by the way, meaning the time limit is a bit lower than usual. Likely somewhere around ~24 minutes

Very much agree as no way should the sprinters even get drop dropped until the foot of the climb and they ought to easily be able to do the climb in well under 1 hour 20 minutes.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@YavorD

Yeah, plan A breakaway, stage win and yellow but if by any chance teams not currently on the podium won't let him go then hopefully to punish them and push them behind in GC. Fair enough.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

They are sure to change that, it would cost half the peloton.

No way is it unavoidable to finish under 24 minutes on an Unipuerto stage if the riders make an effort.



30 point stage I believe as well which is stupid and dumb.

Edit: How did @search get 24 minutes, Cat 3 still works out to about a 15 % time limit or above on average because the Tour time limits are stupid. It‘s gonna be over 35 minutes.

Tour de France 2025 time limit calculator

 

[Boehmand]

The next episode of the epic Carlos Rodriguez vs Ben Healy vs Jordan Jegat breakaway battle for 11th in GC awaits us though, with Uno-X eventually becoming nervous and starting to pace the peloton.

You are probably right, but I would not make that choice if I was the DS on either of those teams, because whoever doesn't make it will punish the break all the way to the foot of the climb and then the guys in the break will be out the back after a few Ks.

The only way I see it working, is if Healy and Rodriguez has a lot of firepower with them, so Foss, Swift, Arensman, Asgreen, Powless and Valgren (for instance) are hammering away all the way to the climb - but even then that only survives if the green jersey candidates are in the break too, because otherwise they will help the GC teams behind shut the break down.

 

[Boehmand]

No way is it unavoidable to finish under 24 minutes on an Unipuerto stage if the riders make an effort.



30 point stage I believe as well which is stupid and dumb.

Edit: How did @search get 24 minutes, Cat 3 still works out to about a 15 % time limit or above on average because the Tour time limits are stupid. It‘s gonna be over 35 minutes.

Tour de France 2025 time limit calculator

35 minutes is a different matter.

We will see a lot of riders slower than 24 minutes on Ventoux if the big boys ride it aggressively.

 

[hayneplane]

No, some dude won't win Eros Poli style. This isn't the 90's where a random solo rider is going 20 minutes up the road. If the break wins, its most likely a very good climber.

Pog wants to win tomorrow, so they can try all they want. UAE wont do nothing as usual in the break formation phase and just put Politt one the front when a break goes and pin them

Who can climb well enough and not suffer on the flat?

Lenny Martinez will be cooked before the climb. Arensmann is a possibility as a good TTer and GC rider who can climb.

 

[Valv.Piti]

No way is it unavoidable to finish under 24 minutes on an Unipuerto stage if the riders make an effort.



30 point stage I believe as well which is stupid and dumb.

Edit: How did @search get 24 minutes, Cat 3 still works out to about a 15 % time limit or above on average because the Tour time limits are stupid. It‘s gonna be over 35 minutes.

Tour de France 2025 time limit calculator

And if they can't, say your goodbyes. More riders should fall for the time cut tbf, many of them wont add anything to the race either way

 

[Boehmand]

Just for clarity, when mentioning Poli I was not envisioning some dude riding solo for 100K.

I merely mentioned him as an example of an unexpected rider type to win the stage from a break.

 

[hayneplane]

@YavorD

Yeah, plan A breakaway, stage win and yellow but if by any chance teams not currently on the podium won't let him go then hopefully to punish them and push them behind in GC. Fair enough.

Can’t see it at all. Don’t even see why he would try to get in a break. Stage 18 is when he should try and slip away in a large move with teammates in tow.