Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 16: Montpellier to Mont Ventoux, 171.5 km

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He might have that in mind but to win a stage he has to finish in front of the GC top 5 guys and that will put their GC positions in jeopardy. He might not care exactly where he finishes but as it will affect the race of others they and their teams will chase.

I doubt UAE are interested in chasing him to stop stage wins but he would need to tank 10-15 minutes before the likes of Picnic/Arkea/Uno-X don’t want to react strongly.
 
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For me the words Ventoux and Froome remind me of that 2016 day when it was more dangerously ventoux than usual

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I remember that day very well for quite a bit of wind, when one of my pals was supposed to be standing on the top but was nearly transformed into the hideous sandman before he could get further down the mountain for more action and less wind gust (I think it was closed and shortened that day?).

However, first and foremost, personally I'll always associate the bald mountain with two stage editions;
In 1987 and Lucio finishing 2nd in an ITT (in a Tour edition with 25 stages, despite three rest days).
And not at least: Eros Poli's unforgettable outing of an adventure in 1994.
Both times I was at the spot, thus a bit more into my heart than a skeletor on a run in cycling shoes :)
 
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I remember that day very well for quite a bit of wind, when one of my pals was supposed to be standing on the top but was nearly transformed into the hideous sandman before he could get further down the mountain for more action and less wind gust (I think it was closed and shortened that day?).

Yeah, that was the problem:
All the spectators, who'd normally have been spread out on the entire climb were suddenly squeeshed together on much less space.
 
Dunno your source, but Emil Axelgaard at TV2 DK (who is usually right) says 17-19 kph on the climb, with cross/tail wind while they are in the forest, but direct head wind the last 7-8K (above the tree line).

It's not a particularly heavy wind, but wind being unpredictable Visma - if they mean to attack - will probably want to do it before they clear the tree line (or the first couple of K after), to create separation to Pogacar before they hit the head wind.
It was the Ventoux site for a week's forecast. Living in the mountains here means you go outside to confirm what's up.
Your take on strategy seems right and as tight as some of the turns are they'd want to keep speed high to prevent infiltration. If the headwind picks up at all the gaps created below the tree line may not grow alot. It'll just take much longer to close gaps.
 
It was the Ventoux site for a week's forecast. Living in the mountains here means you go outside to confirm what's up.
Your take on strategy seems right and as tight as some of the turns are they'd want to keep speed high to prevent infiltration. If the headwind picks up at all the gaps created below the tree line may not grow alot. It'll just take much longer to close gaps.
If there's one thing I've learned through decades of cycling- and mountain hiking holidays in various mountain ranges around the globe, it's that 50% of the time you can throw the weather forecast from the previous day in the trash can, both in terms of wind and precipitation.
Just as unpredictable as Visma team tactics. OK, almost as unpredictable.
 
If there's one thing I've learned through decades of cycling- and mountain hiking holidays in various mountain ranges around the globe, it's that 50% of the time you can throw the weather forecast from the previous day in the trash can, both in terms of wind and precipitation.
Just as unpredictable as Visma team tactics. OK, almost as unpredictable.
Here, a miscue on clothes into bad weather could be health threatening. In parts of the French and Swiss Alps you always seem to be within 20km to a nice warm pastry, cup of great caffeine or raclette and Belgian Ale. Isn't it better to have the epic tests behind you?
 
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Here, a miscue on clothes into bad weather could be health threatening. In parts of the French and Swiss Alps you always seem to be within 20km to a nice warm pastry, cup of great caffeine or raclette and Belgian Ale. Isn't it better to have the epic tests behind you?
Agreed, that region I have hiked/climbed the most in 40 years and the area I have to have extra in my backpack. One moment on high ridges over steep glaciers/rock passages in what feels like 40 °C, the next moment icy winds, where all the sweat on your body freezes to ice, right down to your bones, so you can barely find your winter mittens, which at 5am many hours earlier in the morning seemed completely mind-numbing on a hot summer day in July.
 
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Jul 3, 2025
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If there's one thing I've learned through decades of cycling- and mountain hiking holidays in various mountain ranges around the globe, it's that 50% of the time you can throw the weather forecast from the previous day in the trash can, both in terms of wind and precipitation.
Just as unpredictable as Visma team tactics. OK, almost as unpredictable.
In principle, being a "small" (in area) bump in mostly flat surroundings should make the weather more predictable than, say, in the Alps, but otherwise I agree with you.

But for tomorrow, even the wind predictions in the valley are all over the place. Some forecasts predict a pretty quiet afternoon, others up to 20-25 km/h in the valley which would be a lot more near the top. But generally the wind should come from NW which means headwind (mostly) on the final kms.

It doesn't help that the official weather station (at Mont Serein, 500m below the summit) apparenty cannot be bothered to measure wind speed...