Tour de France Tour de France 2025: Stage-by-stage analysis

[fenns]

Probably because they don‘t want Pogačar to win the jersey.

They don't want all-rounders winning the Green Jersey. They talked about this on ITV. Also the flat stages carry more points than the hilly/ mountain stages. I'd counter that by saying why should there be a jersey for riders who can only compete in 5 or 6 out of 21 stages - the stage wins should be enough.

 

[Red Rick]

Trying to make the stage 6 thread by just copying the post but I get some error bs because of images I think?

 

[RedheadDane]

Trying to make the stage 6 thread by just copying the post but I get some error bs because of images I think?

I've been waiting for someone to post it so I can make my brilliant prediction.

 

[Red Rick]

I've been waiting for someone to post it so I can make my brilliant prediction.

I gave up so don't wait on me.

 

[Tim Cahill]

There will be no Stage 6 thread this year. I will tell the children.

Forum boycott as a protest at the tour being over.

 

[Extinction]

How can you have a sprinters stage on the first Sunday of the race, when people aren't working and will watch? Give them a GC stage for Crissake!

 

[AmRacer]

How can you have a sprinters stage on the first Sunday of the race, when people aren't working and will warch? Give them a GC stage for Crissake!

Second Sunday

 

[Pozzovivo]

Looked again at the key moments of the last few stages after the TT. Vingegaard looks incredibly fresh while Pogacar is looking bit less sparky. I think JV will win the tour honestly. Visma-lab are riding with incredible confidence also. Reminds me of 23 tour.

 

[Red Rick]

What's the time limit on the MTT?

 

[Berniece]

What's the time limit on the MTT?

According to velofacts its 33%

Tour de France 2025 time limit calculator

 

[YavorD]

Looked again at the key moments of the last few stages after the TT. Vingegaard looks incredibly fresh while Pogacar is looking bit less sparky. I think JV will win the tour honestly. Visma-lab are riding with incredible confidence also. Reminds me of 23 tour.

I think I agree with the observation. Noticed similar things.

 

[Red Rick]

According to velofacts its 33%

Tour de France 2025 time limit calculator

I'd seen that, but the estimated times made me question everything because frankly I think the median time estimated there may go OTL. The whole diagram seems minutes from where I expect the winning time to be.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I'd seen that, but the estimated times made me question everything because frankly I think the median time estimated there may go OTL. The whole diagram seems minutes from where I expect the winning time to be.

The estimated time in the roadbook is 26 minutes, which seems much more fair. For the winning time - 4k at sub-50 km/h (the road starts to climb before the KOM officially starts) is maybe 5 minutes and then 50 seconds off the climbing record because it's a MTT and it's 2025 is 19:00, for a combined 24:00? Then the roadbook time would be a borderline top-10 time.

But yes, the Velofacts estimate is incredibly bad.

 

[Red Rick]

The estimated time in the roadbook is 26 minutes, which seems much more fair. For the winning time - 4k at sub-50 km/h (the road starts to climb before the KOM officially starts) is maybe 5 minutes and then 50 seconds off the climbing record because it's a MTT and it's 2025 is 19:00, for a combined 24:00? Then the roadbook time would be a borderline top-10 time.

But yes, the Velofacts estimate is incredibly bad.

Yeah I think I got confused by the official climb annotation and the length of the part before the climb.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Looked again at the key moments of the last few stages after the TT. Vingegaard looks incredibly fresh while Pogacar is looking bit less sparky. I think JV will win the tour honestly. Visma-lab are riding with incredible confidence also. Reminds me of 23 tour.

I believe it's exactly the opposite. Vingegaard is attacking everywhere because he knows he will be dropped on Hautacam.
On the other hand, Pogacar looks extremely confident.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I believe it's exactly the opposite. Vingegaard is attacking everywhere because he knows he will be dropped on Hautacam.
On the other hand, Pogacar looks extremely confident.

Vingegaard has done one move you could credibly call an attack all race (right after the final KOM on stage 2), that's less than Pogacar has.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard has done one move you could credibly call an attack all race (right after the final KOM on stage 2), that's less than Pogacar has.

Pogacar did one attack. Other than that, he is just sprinting. On the other hand, you can see Vingegaard working on flat stages, trying to split the peloton. Pogacar seems more relaxed but we will know more in 3 days.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I believe it's exactly the opposite. Vingegaard is attacking everywhere because he knows he will be dropped on Hautacam.
On the other hand, Pogacar looks extremely confident.

Look at their eyes after the stages in the interview. I really believe Pog is not so good right now. Even Remco looks much fresher imo.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Look at their eyes after the stages in the interview. I really believe Pog is not so good right now. Even Remco looks much fresher imo.

Let’s see. Hard to see how Remco can be fresher than Pogacar btw.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Pogacar did one attack. Other than that, he is just sprinting. On the other hand, you can see Vingegaard working on flat stages, trying to split the peloton. Pogacar seems more relaxed but we will know more in 3 days.

No safer place in the echelons than at the front. Just ask Evenepoel and Bora where they would rather have been.

 

[Peyroteo94]

No safer place in the echelons than at the front. Just ask Evenepoel and Bora where they would rather have been.

You are right however Pogacar has not been more exposed than Vingegaard IMO.

 

[Extinction]

Looked again at the key moments of the last few stages after the TT. Vingegaard looks incredibly fresh while Pogacar is looking bit less sparky. I think JV will win the tour honestly. Visma-lab are riding with incredible confidence also. Reminds me of 23 tour.

Funny how Riccardo Magri said the same things, but looks can be deceiving.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Riccardo Magri

Who?

 

[Pozzovivo]

but looks can be deceiving.

Yes, the defintion of worthless armchair analysis is what I'm bringing to the table here .

 

[Extinction]

Who?

Riccardo Magrini