- May 29, 2019
- 11,090
- 11,621
- 23,180
- Jan 22, 2010
- 4,746
- 5,817
- 21,180
- Mar 19, 2009
- 3,547
- 3,717
- 19,180
Pogacar of course.
Given no incidents the question is going to be how many stages he'll win.
I've looked at the profiles and counted 11 chances to win (adding up some 0,5 chances in there). Given his absurd conversion rate of chances into wins, I think he might actually win 8 stages this time around. 4 because he plans to and 4 because someone "makes" him win. If he only wins 4 I think it should be classified as a disappointment by his standards.
Given no incidents the question is going to be how many stages he'll win.
I've looked at the profiles and counted 11 chances to win (adding up some 0,5 chances in there). Given his absurd conversion rate of chances into wins, I think he might actually win 8 stages this time around. 4 because he plans to and 4 because someone "makes" him win. If he only wins 4 I think it should be classified as a disappointment by his standards.
- Jul 7, 2013
- 8,015
- 14,854
- 23,180
Pogi promised Cav not to break his record so he will be riding conservatively.
- Mar 19, 2009
- 3,547
- 3,717
- 19,180
Y'all must've forgot. Vinge lost last year because he couldn't prepare properly with his broken ribs and collarbone, he basically came off the couch and took 2nd place. Y'all must've forgot how it ended the prior two years. Dauphine says nothing, Jonas will come back in top form from Fignes, all while Pog has already peaked.
- Sep 12, 2022
- 8,078
- 9,592
- 17,180
Pogacar peaked? He doesn't peak, he's always at a peak
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
Fignes.. is that like the Laurent Fignon secret hideout in Tignes? Where Champions are made, not born.
He made it look like a Mickey Mouse raceWell, the Giro last year was conservative racing and he still won 6 stages.
- May 3, 2010
- 4,484
- 4,540
- 21,180
The most likely outcome would be a repetition of last year's podium. If one of the two top favorites drops out due to a crash or other bad luck, a co-leader of UAE or Visma might take over, but they would have a hard time beating Evenepoel.
Other candidates for the top 10 are Gall, Buitrago and O'Connor. Perhaps Onley or Van Eetvelt can come close. Simon Yates probably won't bother about his own GC after winning the Giro. A Pereiro scenario is out of the question, because UAE and Visma are too strong to give an outsider a lot of leeway. A Frenchman winning forty years after Hinault is even less likely. Vauquelin and Lenny Martinez should focus on stage hunting, as should Healy, Storer and Romeo.
- Pogacar
- Vingegaard
- Evenepoel
- Almeida
- Jorgenson
- A. Yates
- Someone from Red Bull-Bora
- Rodriguez
- Mas
- Skjelmose
Other candidates for the top 10 are Gall, Buitrago and O'Connor. Perhaps Onley or Van Eetvelt can come close. Simon Yates probably won't bother about his own GC after winning the Giro. A Pereiro scenario is out of the question, because UAE and Visma are too strong to give an outsider a lot of leeway. A Frenchman winning forty years after Hinault is even less likely. Vauquelin and Lenny Martinez should focus on stage hunting, as should Healy, Storer and Romeo.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
It's like Rog doesn't even exist anymore. Not even via a DNF. In your predictor he's just... vanished, without a trace.
Like that Beatles song Nowhere Man.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,117
- 17,921
- 22,180
I don't believe in him too. It's not a shock in my opinion to not believe in Roglic.
I think he is past his prime, he didn't have a good preparation for the Tour so it's hard to see him getting a relevant result in 3 weeks.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
There's a spectrum between delusional overrating (which fans of any rider are prone towards) versus absolutely underrating someone, which Rog is here.
On his day with his Vuelta 2024 form he's absolutely a podium contender here. I believe the gap (if there is one) between Rog and Evenepoel has always been marginal when both have top form.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,117
- 17,921
- 22,180
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
The unknown is Rog's Giro illness and injuries. Because in terms of his actual seasonal planning, the Giro was always meant as preparation for the Tour. The question is how well he's achieved that and whether his problems in Italy affect him in France.
The rest (crashes etc.) is just something that's always there and always a threat. But I think there's some amnesia going on regarding Rog as a GT rider. It's what he does. It's his speciality. Riding over three weeks. Climbing. TT'ing. The works.
- Jul 15, 2021
- 1,042
- 2,148
- 7,680
- Jul 7, 2013
- 8,015
- 14,854
- 23,180
It's been used too many times. End of the world is more realistic than Vino winning the race.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
So I guess it's time for crazy delusional predictions masked behind "this is a realistic predictor respect my opinion", so here goes:
Pog is going to win the Tour de France with an 8 minute lead on Rog. Vingegaard is going to overextend himself chasing Pog's shadow because the gap is much larger than Visma realize and leave himself vulnerable to getting picked off for second. He'll finish ten minutes down.
Evenepoel will start strong, take yellow in the first ITT but explode at some point because hitting that sweet spot of power/weight ratio for climbing is harder for him than for others. Neither Almeida or Jorgenson will be a factor for the podium because they're working for a leader.
I believe that covers everything. It's suitably biased towards Rog because why not eh, remains somewhat realistic (Pog is unassailable) and also predicts misery for Visma. That just about covers all bases.
Pog is going to win the Tour de France with an 8 minute lead on Rog. Vingegaard is going to overextend himself chasing Pog's shadow because the gap is much larger than Visma realize and leave himself vulnerable to getting picked off for second. He'll finish ten minutes down.
Evenepoel will start strong, take yellow in the first ITT but explode at some point because hitting that sweet spot of power/weight ratio for climbing is harder for him than for others. Neither Almeida or Jorgenson will be a factor for the podium because they're working for a leader.
I believe that covers everything. It's suitably biased towards Rog because why not eh, remains somewhat realistic (Pog is unassailable) and also predicts misery for Visma. That just about covers all bases.
- May 29, 2019
- 11,090
- 11,621
- 23,180
Rogla easily, he has the best doms in the form of Pogi, Jonas and Remco. On top of that and AFAIK Pogi, Jonas and Remco don't even know Rogla will be racing, as the narrative goes.
Some sort of cancel culture, but this is cycling and not social media, road doesn't care.
Some sort of cancel culture, but this is cycling and not social media, road doesn't care.
- Sep 26, 2020
- 25,282
- 27,747
- 23,180
- May 29, 2019
- 11,090
- 11,621
- 23,180
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