Tour De France Betting Odds

[doperhopper]

Rolland is @ 35 on unibet (so just a little better), Voeckler @ 75 and Horner @ 150 (so quite a lot better). Most of the riders are much worse at unibet though, yours are via betfair?

just for the curiousity, does anyone remember what were Voeckler's odds last year after he defended his yellow jersey on Galibier?

 

[search]

about ~10 I think

 

[karlboss]

I was having a look through a few of the 500+ guys and wondering if anyone could pull a periero, there are a few solid riders down there. Levi at 151 looked the best value.

 

[Boeing]

thread merge?

 

[robow7]

Nibali at 25 is definitely worth a little cash if his team will still work for him

 

[ferryman]

I won't be screaming for him but I like the 3/1 I've got on Wiggins.

 

[silverrocket]

Menchov has the name and the status, Spilak has the legs. I don't think Menchov will get a top-10 in a GT.

I hope you're wrong, I have Menchov at 7-1 to get on the podium. I'm banking on the fact that he has had no notable performances and is so far under the radar that I often have to check just to make sure he hasn't retired from pro cycling.

 

[element]

Kiryienka at 800-1. Worth a small each way bet, given how he was climbing in the Dauphine?

 

[Bobby G]

Got Kessiakof @ 800/1 before his odds were reduced somewhat due to his strong showing in the Tour de Suisse TT. He didn't really show in the mountains which ain't great, but after last years Vuelta performance seems silly odds to me. He was right in the mix until he got ill and still finished respectably. Brajkovic disappoints again and againa and again, so hopefully after 10 days Kessiakof will have assumed leadership of Astana. £2 e/w on him.

Got Froome @ 33/1. Stronger than Brad at last years Vuelta. Yeh he will be number 2 going in to the Tour, but worth the risk in my opinion. Who know, with all the TTing could be brads super lieutenant and still finish 3rd. £5 e/w on him.

Finally, Kruijswijk @ 400/1. Another one who will probably be number 2 on his team in Liege. Was decent in last years Giro and exceptional in Tour de Suisse. Replicating that form could see an outside chance of a podium should Gesink fail/fall. £2 e/w on him.

Then I've done a couple of top 10 bets. Peraud @ 6/1 & Coppell @ 7/1. Both good climbers with a better than average TT and should be leaders of their respective teams. Hopefully one can sneak inside the top 10. 5er on each.

 

[BoxCoppi]

800/1 for Kessiakoff is certainly lovely even though he needs a significant rise in performance or a strong setup in terms of breakaway or the like to go for the win.
I got him for 33/1 for a top10. He seems to have timed his form well with great performance in TdS and the amount of ITT works in his favour. Likewise he won Tour of Austria last year with his "tour-form". Certainly different level of competitors, but a good sign none the less.

I can't help but have a slight feeling that something will go wrong for Wiggins even if he is the 'sure' thing for the Tour. Cycling has too many variables to have guys trading close to even for a Tour victory. Unless of course their name is Armstrong - Mr. Zero Variance

Hence, I have Froome and JvdB for the victory. With Froome being a BIG (but interesting) question mark in terms of performance. Gesink and Sanchez (if he overcame his CD injury) also look like reasonable alternatives at the current prices. I do not believe in Menchov even considering his impressive palmarés - I think his best performances are behind him.

However, Wiggins will probably destroy the prologue so better odds will be available in a few days

 

[cineteq]

Got Kessiakof @ 800/1 before his odds were reduced somewhat due to his strong showing in the Tour de Suisse TT. He didn't really show in the mountains which ain't great, but after last years Vuelta performance seems silly odds to me. He was right in the mix until he got ill and still finished respectably. Brajkovic disappoints again and againa and again, so hopefully after 10 days Kessiakof will have assumed leadership of Astana. £2 e/w on him.

Got Froome @ 33/1. Stronger than Brad at last years Vuelta. Yeh he will be number 2 going in to the Tour, but worth the risk in my opinion. Who know, with all the TTing could be brads super lieutenant and still finish 3rd. £5 e/w on him.

Finally, Kruijswijk @ 400/1. Another one who will probably be number 2 on his team in Liege. Was decent in last years Giro and exceptional in Tour de Suisse. Replicating that form could see an outside chance of a podium should Gesink fail/fall. £2 e/w on him.

Then I've done a couple of top 10 bets. Peraud @ 6/1 & Coppell @ 7/1. Both good climbers with a better than average TT and should be leaders of their respective teams. Hopefully one can sneak inside the top 10. 5er on each.

How about Westra for the podium? From the guys who has long odds he's the one I like.

 

[Bobby G]

How about Westra for the podium? From the guys who has long odds he's the one I like.

I agree he has an outside shot, but @ 40/1? I don't think that represents great value myself. Prefer Kessiakoff @ 150/1. Better climbing pedigree and good recent form in the TT.

 

[cineteq]

Prefer Kessiakoff @ 150/1. Better climbing pedigree and good recent form in the TT.

Great catch!

 

[Frosty]

Westra is 14-1 for the top 10 with Bet365 which could be worth a small punt. Lulu finished 10th in 2010 but hasnt shown much to suggest he can do that again. With plenty of tt's he would be good value at 12-1 if anyone believes he can suddenly regain his 2010 form.

Peraud at 5-1 for the top 10 should be good value given he finished in the top 10 last year and this course should suit him more. However, he really hasnt shown much at all this season.

Bet365 also has some bets on stage wins which could be worth a punt. Jeremy Roy looks in good form and was in some breaks last year so i've put a small bet on him winning at least one stage at 4/1

 

[*G*K*S*]

With those ITT´s this year Le Mevel won´t have a chance, unless he goes on the attack. But he may also have to work for Danielson/Vandevelde/D.Martin.

Aren't you forgetting someone, eh?

Is LeMevel even riding the Tour?

 

[williamp78]

Got Kessiakof @ 800/1 before his odds were reduced somewhat due to his strong showing in the Tour de Suisse TT. He didn't really show in the mountains which ain't great, but after last years Vuelta performance seems silly odds to me. He was right in the mix until he got ill and still finished respectably. Brajkovic disappoints again and againa and again, so hopefully after 10 days Kessiakof will have assumed leadership of Astana. £2 e/w on him.

Got Froome @ 33/1. Stronger than Brad at last years Vuelta. Yeh he will be number 2 going in to the Tour, but worth the risk in my opinion. Who know, with all the TTing could be brads super lieutenant and still finish 3rd. £5 e/w on him.

Finally, Kruijswijk @ 400/1. Another one who will probably be number 2 on his team in Liege. Was decent in last years Giro and exceptional in Tour de Suisse. Replicating that form could see an outside chance of a podium should Gesink fail/fall. £2 e/w on him.

Then I've done a couple of top 10 bets. Peraud @ 6/1 & Coppell @ 7/1. Both good climbers with a better than average TT and should be leaders of their respective teams. Hopefully one can sneak inside the top 10. 5er on each.

Froome at 33/1 isn't bad. I'm intrugued as to the odds on Michael Rodgers as well. With their showing at the Dauphine an each way bet on froome and rodgers could be very handy indeed. And what odds on a team sky 1-2-3? They're all very strong TTs and may be hard to drop on the climbs. Of course Team Sky tactics could play a role

 

[williamp78]

Oh and i'm not suggesting a 1-2-3 for sky but if you're predicting a podium thats not a bad place to start

 

[Bobby G]

FYI, you can get 350/1 on Rogers to win with Bet365 which isn't too shabby. Don't see it though. Very uninspiring 25/1 on Rodgers to podium with SportingBet.

 

[williamp78]

350/1 seems like great odds. I reckon it could depend on who wiggos last mountain domestique is; whoever it is could have a great chance at a podium though i think its more likely to be froome than rodgers.

Also, i am not actually a betting man but love looking at the odds (which as i type it seems quite geeky)

 

[Kwibus]

I've joined the Tourpoule of the dutch paper "de Telegraaf".

You get to select 20 riders for your team.
There are 10 star riders of which you are allowed to select just 5 for your team.

The following riders are the 'stars':
-Cavendish
-Greipel
-Sagan
-Kittel
-Wiggins
-Evans
-Gesink
-Nibali
-F.Schleck
-J.vandenBroeck

The first 6 are the easy choice imo regarding the chance of getting a lot of points from them. The point is... I have to drop 1 of the first 6.
Since 4 out of 6 are sprinters I'm pretty sure I have to drop a sprinter. Now I'm seriously considering dropping Cavendish, but somehow I think that I will regret that. He did lose some weight and seemed to have lost some speed, but not taking him with me... That sounds just silly, but which sprinter do I drop?
Kittel, Greipel or Sagan....

 

[LaFlorecita]

I've joined the Tourpoule of the dutch paper "de Telegraaf".

You get to select 20 riders for your team.
There are 10 star riders of which you are allowed to select just 5 for your team.

The following riders are the 'stars':
-Cavendish
-Greipel
-Sagan
-Kittel
-Wiggins
-Evans
-Gesink
-Nibali
-F.Schleck
-J.vandenBroeck

The first 6 are the easy choice imo regarding the chance of getting a lot of points from them. The point is... I have to drop 1 of the first 6.
Since 4 out of 6 are sprinters I'm pretty sure I have to drop a sprinter. Now I'm seriously considering dropping Cavendish, but somehow I think that I will regret that. He did lose some weight and seemed to have lost some speed, but not taking him with me... That sounds just silly, but which sprinter do I drop?
Kittel, Greipel or Sagan....

Argh.. hard choice I'd pick... Greipel ...

 

[Gloin22]

Kittel out of these is most likely to drop out of the Tour.

Greipel and Sagan both want to make it to Paris and so it's easy choice.

Kittel out

 

[Kwibus]

Kittel out of these is most likely to drop out of the Tour.

Greipel and Sagan both want to make it to Paris and so it's easy choice.

Kittel out

Well it makes sense. Will Kittel survive the first mountain stages? Maybe he won't make the timecut and he has to leave.
Also it will be his first TdF, last year in the Vuelta he had a hard time, but he did win a stage.

Then again he might as well win 3-4 stages....

 

[Kwibus]

Another tough call. What about Cobo?

If he is good he can be worth quite a few points in the mountains, but he might as well end up doing nothing.

 

[RedZone]

Thought Id put my bets that ive made so far in here and see what people think

KOM - Vino $5 @ 41-1, Chavanel $5 @67-1
Green - Matt Goss $10 @ 10-1
White - Kruijswijk $20 @ 2.25
Win/Podium - Sammy Sanchez $5 @ 34-1 (win) 8.5-1 (place)
Levi Leiphemier $5 @ 81-1 (win) 20.5-1 (place)

Stage wins - Evans under .5 stages $50 @ 1.75
Goss over 0.5 stages $20 @ 2.5
Wiggins over 0.5 stages @10 @ 2.25

Will be making more in the next few days, when head to heads come out