Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[hatcher]

Wiggins was NOT in his peak in the Vuelta, but as for his (or Froomie's) Tour chances, Vuelta did not have anything similar to:

or

Both stages with about 5000m of climbing, and it rarely happens in the Tour.

Yeah Wiggins problems have come when there's a big climb following a big climb. Those are definitely the stages to be concerned about.

I do think he's a different, more assured rider now though. Whether that translates to being able to better conserve energy on early climbs is still to be seen.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah Wiggins problems have come when there's a big climb following a big climb. Those are definitely the stages to be concerned about.

I do think he's a different, more assured rider now though. Whether that translates to being able to better conserve energy on early climbs is still to be seen.

It's a problem time trialists-turned-climbers generally tend to have: they can time trial up one climb, more climbs in succession are a problem. Don't think that's to do with conserving energy, more with simply not being a natural climber.

The Vuelta was simply perfect for Wiggo in that regard.

 

[Nick C.]

Wiggins was NOT in his peak in the Vuelta, but as for his (or Froomie's) Tour chances, Vuelta did not have anything similar to:

or

Both stages with about 5000m of climbing, and it rarely happens in the Tour.

Anyone think there will be a major selection forced on either stage on the Tourmalet or Croix de Fer? If there is then the Schleck(s) are on the podium, if not, and they wait till the last climb then all the TT-grinders have a shot.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Saxo: Contador (if rides)
BMC: Evans
Katusha: Menchov
Sky: Wiggins, Froome
Nissan: A Schleck, Horner, Kloeden
OPQS: Leiphaimer, Velits, Martin
Lotto: JVDB
Rabobank: Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk
Europcar: Rolland, Voeckler
Astana: Brajkovic, Vinokourov
Movistar: Cobo, Valverde
Liquigas: Nibali
Euskatel: Sanchez

This is TOP 20.

 

[Kvinto]

I think this Tour offers quite enough places to make a major selection (not only on these two stages) to say (i hate to say it actually ) that Andy Schleck can win it.
edit: if Contador is suspended of course

 

[cineteq]

Saxo: Contador (if rides)
BMC: Evans
Katusha: Menchov
Sky: Wiggins, Froome
Nissan: A Schleck, Horner, Kloeden
OPQS: Leiphaimer, Martin
Lotto: JVDB
Rabobank: Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk
Europcar: Rolland, Voeckler
Astana: Brajkovic, Vinokourov
Movistar: Cobo, Valverde
Liquigas: Nibali
Euskatel: Sanchez

This is TOP 20.

Very good!!!

But wait it seems we forgot someone...
Hincapie believes Van Garderen can be a Tour de France contender

 

[theyoungest]

I think this Tour offers quite enough places to make a major selection (not only on these two stages) to say (i hate to say it actually ) that Andy Schleck can win it.
edit: if Contador is suspended of course

Yes, there's also these two stages where Andy could crush the TTists (except Contador indeed)

 

[Kvinto]

this one is good as well:

 

[Angliru]

another hit-on-the-schlecks thread, this is getting bored

You'll get over it....or used to it... one of the two.

Seriously though point out how this is thread is what you claim? I see posts predicting the contenders and why. The fact that the Schleck's aren't getting the support that you think they deserve is simply a personal matter that maybe you need to address with yourself.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Wiggins in anything close to peak form doesn't lose 23 seconds to Froome in a 47km TT, and doesn't only beat Phinney by 11, Fuglsang by 15, etc.

I was talking about the Dauphine. Judging by his TT he was close to peak form there.

 

[The Hitch]

I'd rate Gesink and Mollema as outside chances. They simply cannot TT and their climbing is inconsistent.

I don't know what to think at this point. I would say that RadioNissan have the best team, with BMC in second. While Contador may be the best of them all, I don't see that he has a superb team around him. Certainly nothing of the sort that Armstrong had.

Is anyone from Astana a possibility, or are they just racing for stages?

Ah. I forgot. An outside chance for Pierre Roland as well.

Yes moose but what on earth possessed you to put jvdb for example as a definite contender but Samu as a maybe.

Better climber - Samu
Better tter - Samu
Better descender - samu.

Exactly the same result if you compare Frank Schleck who you also have as a major contender to the Austrian.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

this one is good as well:

That will most likely be the most selective stage, factoring in fatigue and all that. I don't have high hopes for the classic Aubisque - Tourmalet - Peyresourde stage.

 

[rzombie1988]

Contador's the obvious pick for the win as long as he can race. I can't fathom anyone seriously picking anyone else. You have to make two different podiums depending on what Contador does. I think Andy could get a 3rd place spot if Contador races, but without him, it won't happen.

 

[The Hitch]

we know that on tour will be 100 km itt
sooo i think that andy and frank will be only in top 10
1. Conta
2. Evans
3. Wiggo
4. Levi
5. Valverde
6. Van der Broeck
7. A. Schleck
8. Sanchez
9. Nibali
10. f. Schleck

Did Menchov and Samu crash into another in this scenario ( important assuming that's lulu in 8th cos no other way does jvdb beat a sanchez )

 

[Kvinto]

That will most likely be the most selective stage, factoring in fatigue and all that. I don't have high hopes for the classic Aubisque - Tourmalet - Peyresourde stage.

Why? This should be an awesome stage, look at the profiles of ascents here:

http://www.velopeloton.com/pau-to-bagneres-de-luchon-stage-16/

Every of this climbs has long sections of 8% and more and overall 5000m of climbing makes it the great place for climbing showdown and it is absolutely different to the reverse way stage of the Tour 2010 Luchon - Pau, when the last climb Aubisque was more than 50km to the finish.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Why? This should be an awesome stage, look at the profiles of ascents here:

http://www.velopeloton.com/pau-to-bagneres-de-luchon-stage-16/

Every of this climbs has long sections of 8% and more and overall 5000m of climbing makes it the great place for climbing showdown and it is absolutely different to the reverse stage of the Tour 2010 Luchon - Pau, when the last climb Aubisque was more than 50km to the finish.

It's not the climbs, but the false flat in between and the fact that the penultimate climb, Aspin, is not selective at all from this side. They did the EXACT same stage in 1998 and it was a bore. Pantani was the only GC guy to attack (on the Peyresourde, obviously, since there are 10 kilometers of false flat preceding it) and lost pretty much all of his advantage in the descent.

1. Rodolfo Massi Drapeau : Italie Casino en 5h49'40’’
2. Marco Pantani Drapeau : Italie Mercatone Uno + 36’’
3. Michael Boogerd Drapeau : Pays-Bas Rabobank 59’’
4. Bobby Julich Drapeau : États-Unis Cofidis m.t.
5. Giuseppe Di Grande Drapeau : Italie Mapei-Bricobi m.t.
6. Jose Maria Jimenez Drapeau : Espagne Banesto m.t.
7. Fernando Escartin Drapeau : Espagne Kelme m.t.
8. Jan Ullrich Drapeau : Allemagne Telekom m.t.
9. Jean-Cyril Robin Drapeau : France US Postal m.t.
10. Leonardo Piepoli Drapeau : Italie Saeco m.t


This has boring mountain stage written all over it.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink and Mollema do have TT potential, especially Gesink. It's disregarded too easily.

Btw, I think Gesinks recovery is going well...

"8times 5min. up and down a hill at threshold, just another day at the office! (421w,411w,415w,413w,414w,406w,418w,426w #forwhomisinterested)"

 

[Kvinto]

It's not the climbs, but the false flat in between and the fact that the penultimate climb, Aspin, is not selective at all from this side. They did the EXACT same stage in 1998 and it was a bore. Pantani was the only GC guy to attack (on the Peyresourde, obviously, since there are 10 kilometers of false flat preceding it) and lost pretty much all of his advantage in the descent.

1. Rodolfo Massi Drapeau : Italie Casino en 5h49'40’’
2. Marco Pantani Drapeau : Italie Mercatone Uno + 36’’
3. Michael Boogerd Drapeau : Pays-Bas Rabobank 59’’
4. Bobby Julich Drapeau : États-Unis Cofidis m.t.
5. Giuseppe Di Grande Drapeau : Italie Mapei-Bricobi m.t.
6. Jose Maria Jimenez Drapeau : Espagne Banesto m.t.
7. Fernando Escartin Drapeau : Espagne Kelme m.t.
8. Jan Ullrich Drapeau : Allemagne Telekom m.t.
9. Jean-Cyril Robin Drapeau : France US Postal m.t.
10. Leonardo Piepoli Drapeau : Italie Saeco m.t


This has boring mountain stage written all over it.

how hard was the next day's stage to Plateau de Beille then? Maybe it was the case? The last 5km of Aspin look selective, before it - the false flat indeed

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

how hard was the next day's stage to Plateau de Beille then? Maybe it was the case?

Same as this year. Next day is the selective mountain stage..... the GC guys won't contest the Luchon stage.

 

[Kvinto]

Same as this year. Next day is the selective mountain stage..... the GC guys won't contest the Luchon stage.

Hmm, well, on paper Plateau de Beille stage looks hard while the favourites rode it awfully in 2011. Don't know how it will unfold in 2012 with Luchon/ Peyragudes double but i hope we can have both these stages interesting...

edit: then again - in 1998 Luchon was the first mountain stage while in 2012 it'll be penultimate... let's wait and see...

 

[theyoungest]

Gesink and Mollema do have TT potential, especially Gesink. It's disregarded too easily.

Btw, I think Gesinks recovery is going well...

"8times 5min. up and down a hill at threshold, just another day at the office! (421w,411w,415w,413w,414w,406w,418w,426w #forwhomisinterested)"

Kruijswijk has more TT potential than Mollema IMO (for longer TTs).

PS comparable threshold power to Froomey

 

[DenisMenchov]

Yes moose but what on earth possessed you to put jvdb for example as a definite contender but Samu as a maybe.

Better climber - Samu
Better tter - Samu
Better descender - samu.

Exactly the same result if you compare Frank Schleck who you also have as a major contender to the Austrian.

I know you like Samu, but it is so hard to say who of those 2 is a better climber. Short uphill finishes, Samu is probably better, but when it comes to mountains, i think they are really close.

 

[theyoungest]

I know you like Samu, but it is so hard to say who of those 2 is a better climber. Short uphill finishes, Samu is probably better, but when it comes to mountains, i think they are really close.

What? Didn't you see Samu dropping VDB like a brick on almost every serious climb in the Tour, last time around?

 

[DenisMenchov]

What? Didn't you see Samu dropping VDB like a brick on almost every serious climb in the Tour, last time around?

Tour 2010, now it is 2012.

 

[The Hitch]

Tour 2010, now it is 2012.

youngest was talking about the 2011 Tour not the 2010 one and being facetious with the "Samu dropped JVDB like a stone" comment" as we all know JVDB crashed and was not there in the mountain stages.

The overall meaning being that since vdb takes the Andy Schleck approach to cycling, we cannot compare him to Samu since 2010 and 2 years later, improvements have got to favor the Belgian.