Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[theyoungest]

youngest he was talking about the 2011 Tour not the 2010 one and being facetious with the "Samu dropped JVDB like a stone" comment" as we all know JVDB crashed and was not there in the mountain stages.

No, I wasn't. In the Tour 2010 I saw no (absolutely no) support for DenisMenchov (the poster)'s claim about VDB being comparable to Samu as a climber.

Yes, now it's 2 years later, but VDB2 isn't some neo pro upstart. The guy is 29 already.

 

[The Hitch]

No, I wasn't. In the Tour 2010 I saw no (absolutely no) support for DenisMenchov (the poster)'s claim about VDB being comparable to Samu as a climber.

Yes, now it's 2 years later, but VDB2 isn't some neo pro upstart. The guy is 29 already.

Oh, sorry for misunderstanding

 

[DenisMenchov]

No, I wasn't. In the Tour 2010 I saw no (absolutely no) support for DenisMenchov (the poster)'s claim about VDB being comparable to Samu as a climber.

Yes, now it's 2 years later, but VDB2 isn't some neo pro upstart. The guy is 29 already.

Samu's best results came after 30.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

edit: then again - in 1998 Luchon was the first mountain stage while in 2012 it'll be penultimate...

So? Jausiers was the penultimate mountain stage in 2008. No one attacked and only Sastre wanted to. I guess it's possible that they'll attack from far out, but is it likely?

We may see some half-hearted attacks on the Peyresourde, but that's not what I'd call interesting. IMO Bruyneel won't risk it all on this stage when the next stage is much better suited to destroy the competition. We'll find out soon enough if Andy can compete for the overall. Vosges, Jura, Alps. He should have distanced the better time trialists before they hit the Pyrenees, IMO, or it will be very tough. He could lose minutes in the last TT, after all.

 

[Fetisoff]

I would put Samuel Sanchez as a definite yes.

J-Rod's not riding.

Frank Schleck - I don't think so. More likely a Kloden or Horner from Radioshack, if Andy fails miserably.

From the outside chances for top 5 we can look at some Frenchies. If Saur gets invited, which of course is a big big if, Coppel could do some damage. I doubt they will get invited after failing last year though. Either way, this years' parcours seems to favor Coppel better than last year, IMHO.

Can a Pierre Rolland or a JC Peraud do something this year? Only time will tell.

Anyway, there's a lot of good names fighting for a few spots at the top this year, so one bad day could ruin any chance of a top result for anybody (which sucks for Menchov i guess)

 

[taiwan]

Shot at the Podium

Contador
Evans
Andy Schleck
Frank Schleck
Kloeden
Leipheimer
Menchov
Wiggins
Nibali
Samuel Sanchez
Valverde
Peraud

 

[Kvinto]

So? Jausiers was the penultimate mountain stage in 2008. No one attacked and only Sastre wanted to. I guess it's possible that they'll attack from far out, but is it likely?

We may see some half-hearted attacks on the Peyresourde, but that's not what I'd call interesting. IMO Bruyneel won't risk it all on this stage when the next stage is much better suited to destroy the competition. We'll find out soon enough if Andy can compete for the overall. Vosges, Jura, Alps. He should have distanced the better time trialists before they hit the Pyrenees, IMO, or it will be very tough. He could lose minutes in the last TT, after all.

But they had to face Galibier-Croix de Fer-Alpe d'Huez 210km stage next day. I'm refering to the fact (or just make assumption) that on paper Luchon 2012 is harder than Jausiers 2008 while Alpe d'Huez 2008 looks harder than Peyragudes 2012 (tbh i haven't seen the ascents' profile yet so i say 'looks').

I get your point that Aspin isn't good enough to attack while attacking on Tourmalet is too risky so, considering the existence of Peyragudes stage next day, it is the most likely the race will begin only on Peyresourde (at best) which of course can't give big gaps but i hope that we'll have some selection from the Tourmalet so the group at the bottom of Peyresourde would be small enough to reasonably attack. I don't expect something outstanding in Luchon, but if we have something like Plateau de Beille 2011 there it would be shame in my view

 

[taiwan]

Shot at the Podium

Contador
Evans
Andy Schleck
Frank Schleck
Kloeden
Leipheimer
Menchov
Wiggins
Nibali
Samuel Sanchez
Valverde
Peraud
Van Den Broeck
Danielson
Gesink
Horner
Vinokourov

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

Looking back over some of the stage profiles, I wonder if we're perhaps being a bit too quick in assuming the likes of Evans, Menchov, and Wiggins will round out the podium. If, and I accept it is a monumentally huge and incredibly unlikely if, some of the weaker tt riders - Andy, Frank, Rolland, some of the Dutchies etc. really target the mountain opportunities that they have - particularly Toussuire (i.e. get away on the Croix de Fer), Peyragudes, and go nuts on the way up La Planche des Belles Filles then it might at least put a cat amongst the pigeons. Or am I hoping for too much...

The other way of looking at it, is to ask how much time will someone like Andy lost over 100km of TT to Evans/Wiggins/Menchov and therefore how much will he need to try and regain in the mountains?

 

[theyoungest]

Looking back over some of the stage profiles, I wonder if we're perhaps being a bit too quick in assuming the likes of Evans, Menchov, and Wiggins will round out the podium. If, and I accept it is a monumentally huge and incredibly unlikely if, some of the weaker tt riders - Andy, Frank, Rolland, some of the Dutchies etc. really target the mountain opportunities that they have - particularly Toussuire (i.e. get away on the Croix de Fer), Peyragudes, and go nuts on the way up La Planche des Belles Filles then it might at least put a cat amongst the pigeons. Or am I hoping for too much...

The other way of looking at it, is to ask how much time will someone like Andy lost over 100km of TT to Evans/Wiggins/Menchov and therefore how much will he need to try and regain in the mountains?

The course is definitely underrated in terms of climbing, and I think the designers have put the TT kilometers in to really necessitate attacks from the Schleck-types on those mountain stages without uphill finishes (i.e. most of them). It's a clever course, now it's up to the riders to really do something with it.

I reckon Andy will lose half a minute in the prologue, 2 minutes on the first (supposedly hilly) TT, and again 2 min in the final TT (when he's usually at his best). So that's 4.30... okay that's a lot.

 

[Nick C.]

I figured 3-5 minutes for Andy without remembering the prologue. But I doubt that all three will be putting in A+ TTs themselves, my 3-5 minutes was to the winner of the TT. It could be 1:30 to three to some of these guys. Close prologue (which is where he is usually abysmal) an d30-50 seconds in two TTS. Does that sound implausible?

 

[movingtarget]

The course is definitely underrated in terms of climbing, and I think the designers have put the TT kilometers in to really necessitate attacks from the Schleck-types on those mountain stages without uphill finishes (i.e. most of them). It's a clever course, now it's up to the riders to really do something with it.

I reckon Andy will lose half a minute in the prologue, 2 minutes on the first (supposedly hilly) TT, and again 2 min in the final TT (when he's usually at his best). So that's 4.30... okay that's a lot.

What prologue ? I thought the first stage was a road stage ? I think it will be a good race. Last year lots of people complained about the route but it was an entertaining race even though the Pyrenees were dull for the most part. I think it's a hard course. Not only MTF's make a race hard. As you say, the tactics will make the race especially from R/Shack.

 

[Fetisoff]

What prologue ? I thought the first stage was a road stage ?

http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/0/etape_par_etape.html

 

[movingtarget]

1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. A. Schleck

Anyone else winning would be a huge surprise for me.

Most bookmakers would agree. Not sure about the order of the top three though. If the 2011 Andy Schleck turns up he won't finish in top five. But I think his brother will be sacrificed this year and whenever they hit a hard climb, Bruyneel will want Andy to attack to put time into Evans, Menchov, Wiggins and co. He has to take more risks even if he risks riding a worse TT. What a shame that Martin is not a better climber. That would have made the race really interesting. Let's face it he will annihilate most of the GC riders in the TT's.

 

[movingtarget]

http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/0/etape_par_etape.html

Thanks for that. Obviously I was thinking of the missing TTT.

 

[Fetisoff]

Thanks for that. Obviously I was thinking of the missing TTT.

Or maybe looking forward to the 2013 TDF
http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/grand_depart_2013.html#zone4

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think writing off AS so easily is a mistake. Not saying he will win but those claiming that he won't get close may well be proved wrong. If you think back to 2010 he and AC were riding away from the other contenders at will putting minutes into the others on climbs. On the other hand, perhaps cycling has changed for the better.

I was thinking this to say also, acf noted schlekcs chances for podium were gone if ac rides.. i think the opposite.

Where was Saxo's support for Contador in the Giro and the TDF ? Evan's got by without strong support in the mountains last year. But BMC were outstanding on the flat/medium stages and on the lower slopes of mountain stages. I think mountain support is overrated for good climbers unless the climb is not very steep. R/Shack are the exception but I can't see one of their riders winning the race and are Kloden and Horner going to be there with the best climbers over three weeks ? Trouble for them is that their best two climbers can't ride a good TT so they have to play the tactical games as it's their only chance to get someone on the podium but this year I can's see it happening with the race route being what it is.

let's be honest here, the last TDU had lots of crashes and choas. By the time the mountains hit it was already schlecks VS evans. And when the schlecks did use thier to team to thier advantage BMC was exposed, and evans only grit and determination kept him in the game. Imagine if there were less crashes, a fit contador, more teams working against evans.

His team performed well, but in reality a lot of luck contributed to evans win (tbf he was due).

Couldn't keep up with Poels? Seriously? Maybe if the Vuelta was actually only one stage. Wiggins then beat Poels up Peña Cabarga two days later, but so what?

For all the value your point has, you may as well say Anton, Nibali, Mollema, JRod etc couldn't keep up with Poels, and Wiggins.

And then, unbelievably, you say he won't keep up with "the best climbers in peak form", as though Wiggins was in peak form at the Vuelta (and Dauphine).

Talk about twisting facts to fit your conclusion.

I was clearly refrencing to Angrilu, a difficult finish. Much of the climbing was too easy at the vuelta, so naturally the harder finishes are best comparison. As the tempo is harder at the tour, and riders are in better form it is hard to imagine wiggo being able to compete with the best when he has never done so. And yes by best climbers in the world I mean the best.

Oh and btw Poels was doing pretty well until the final week where he completey failed - you know being a young rider in his first gt and all. A lot more riders then wiggo beat him, hardly impressive.

Like the youngest pointed out, this was a pretty good route for wiggo and he still didn't have the goods.

learn to read between the lines

Kruijswijk has more TT potential than Mollema IMO (for longer TTs).

PS comparable threshold power to Froomey

agreed. and boy is mollema ugly on a tt bike

 

[El Pistolero]

Or maybe looking forward to the 2013 TDF
http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/grand_depart_2013.html#zone4

Pffft, now Cavendish will complete the leader jersey trifecta

 

[Fetisoff]

Pffft, now Cavendish will complete the leader jersey trifecta

Maybe he'll be too busy "having time to glance at the Roman remains of Mariana" and miss the split, or something

 

[El Pistolero]

Maybe he'll be too busy "having time to glance at the Roman remains of Mariana" and miss the split, or something

Let's hope he rides in them

 

[The Hitch]

What prologue ? I thought the first stage was a road stage ? I think it will be a good race. Last year lots of people complained about the route but it was an entertaining race even though the Pyrenees were dull for the most part. I think it's a hard course. Not only MTF's make a race hard. As you say, the tactics will make the race especially from R/Shack.

While it has potential for some good mountain stages, its a sad situation when we have to rely on andy Schleck's willingness to attack, to make the race good.

 

[cineteq]

Based on what everybody said thus far, these are the ones with a shot of winning the Tour 2012:

Evans
Nibali
Contador
Valverde
Gesink
Kloeden
Menchov
Wiggins
Sanchez
Leipheimer

 

[Fetisoff]

Let's hope he rides in them

Have a little Jonathan Hivert / Tommy Voeckler moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_JOwg8shJc

 

[El Pistolero]

Based on what everybody said thus far, these are the ones with a shot of winning the Tour 2012:

Evans
Nibali
Contador
Menchov
Valverde
Gesink
Kloeden
Wiggins
Sanchez
Leipheimer

No.

..........

 

[The Hitch]

Or maybe looking forward to the 2013 TDF
http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/grand_depart_2013.html#zone4

A criminal misuse of the terrain and a ttt for the first stage back in France.

I feel like crying