Tour de France Jerseys Speculation Thread

[TeoSheva]

Yellow: A Schleck
Green: Gilbert
KOM: Moncoutie
White: Gesink

 

[ManInFull]

Yellow - contador
Green - alejet
Kom - soler
White-Gesink

Edit found out Gesink was young enough for white so put him in instead of Coppel

Is Baby Schleck finally too old for the White jersey?

 

[El Pistolero]

Yup, wont be breaking Ullrich's record.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The green jersey should indeed be for the points classification, meaning the best performer based on points instead of time. Just like in formula 1, they hand out points and don't care about time.
If they want to celebrate the best sprinter, they should check average speeds of the final 500 meters before the finish or something. That way the best sprinter could still do the best sprint even after getting behind after a flat tire or in a second peleton.
Same goes for the KoM, if they really want to celebrate the best climber, they should just time how fast a rider goes up a mountain. Now some dweep with a 15 minute headstart can become KoM. Well, maybe this year it won't be that easy, but still.

As for the reason they won't: because if they did it like that, someone like Contador would go home with the yellow, green and KoM jerseys. And commercially, that just wouldn't be interesting at all.

 

[seaby71]

yellow contador
green cav
kom soler
white gesink

by the way how is the kom points different this year?

 

[El Pistolero]

Rules for KoM have changed this year: they only give double points for MTF of category 1 or HC(it used to be final category 1 or HC climb) and they give a lot less points for 3rd and 4th category climbs. Only the first guy gets points now on a 3rd and 4th category climb(or something along those lines)

Don't think a dweep will win this year.

 

[seaby71]

thanks el pistol appreciate it

 

[El Pistolero]

The green jersey should indeed be for the points classification, meaning the best performer based on points instead of time. Just like in formula 1, they hand out points and don't care about time.
If they want to celebrate the best sprinter, they should check average speeds of the final 500 meters before the finish or something. That way the best sprinter could still do the best sprint even after getting behind after a flat tire or in a second peleton.
Same goes for the KoM, if they really want to celebrate the best climber, they should just time how fast a rider goes up a mountain. Now some dweep with a 15 minute headstart can become KoM. Well, maybe this year it won't be that easy, but still.

As for the reason they won't: because if they did it like that, someone like Contador would go home with the yellow, green and KoM jerseys. And commercially, that just wouldn't be interesting at all.

That's why they should give the puncheurs a fair chance as well. By giving equal points on medium mountain stages and less points for high mountain stages.

 

[Mambo95]

Let's not forget his sudden drop of form since 2009

I wonder why


I don't mind that mountain stages give less points though as I don't like it when a GT contender can win all jerseys just because the rules make it "easy" for them. Everything needs to be balanced a bit. So everyone has a fair chance at the points jersey. Not just people with the name Cavendish.

What loss of form. He's still been the best sprinter at the last 3 GTs.

The sprinters (who have been the only contenders for green for 15 years) do have a fair chance at the green jersey. Just the same as all the GC contenders all have a fair chance at yellow. It's just that Cavendish, like Contador, is a notch above his rivals. But are you objecting about the GC course (maybe a 200km of TTing or a 150km TTT would even it up a little)? No. And that's because you like Contador, but not Cavendish.

If you had three equal sprinters (and had no personal preferences), you would see that the new system is more equitable and more meaningful than before.

 

[El Pistolero]

What loss of form. He's still been the best sprinter at the last 3 GTs.

The sprinters (who have been the only contenders for green for 15 years) do have a fair chance at the green jersey. Just the same as all the GC contenders all have a fair chance at yellow. It's just that Cavendish, like Contador, is a notch above his rivals. But are you objecting about the GC course (maybe a 200km of TTing or a 150km TTT would even it up a little)? No. And that's because you like Contador, but not Cavendish.

If you had three equal sprinters (and had no personal preferences), you would see that the new system is more equitable and more meaningful than before.

Compare his season of 2009 to 2010 and 2011. In 2009 he could get up those hills pretty well to the surprise of many. In 2010 and 2011 he was meh again. I call that a drop in form.

Sprinters have not been the only contenders for 15 years. Zabel who won it 6 times was a sprinter, but not a pure one. O'grady has come second as well a few times. Thor Hushovd won it 2 times and is no pure sprinter as well. With these rules it's going to be pure sprinters only. That's sad.

Rules should change and give equal points on medium mountain stages. That would even the field with the puncheurs. Then we'd see a fight between sprinters and puncheurs. Pure climbers would still not be able to win it because they wouldn't waste their energy for it and high mountain stages would still give less points.

What makes you think I liked the old system? I hated it as well, but this is even worse.

And I don't get your point about the time trials. Contador is one of the best time trial specialists in the world, so more tts will only work in his favor.

 

[Mambo95]

Compare his season of 2009 to 2010 and 2011. In 2009 he could get up those hills pretty well to the surprise of many. In 2010 and 2011 he was meh again. I call that a drop in form.

He did surprise many, including the peloton. So they started going up the climbs quicker, so he couldn't hang on. It's fairly straight forward. For example, on one of the late climbs today HTC put two people on the front to control the pace - but the others weren't having any of it.


(As to Contador's TTing, yes he is good. But generally on shorter ones with a climb of some sort. Stick him in a 70km TT through windy Brittany - like they used to have back in the old days - and let's see how he does)

 

[Frosty]

He soft pedalled in at the back of his group when there were still points available on the cobbles stage too.

No he didnt. He finished 4th out of his group of 18, how is that the back of the group? In fact if you include the group that was just behind them then it was fourth out of 69 (dont know if his group pulled away towards the end. He was also the leading HTC finisher in terms of time. FWIW he said that they didnt realise they were that close to the front.

Also, for all the talk of how he cant get over any hills any more, he did finish second on the stage to Revel last year (Vino's win) which had a third category climb just before the finish. Admittedly a group chasing harder probably wouldnt have allowed him to get back on but the lack of chase suggests no top sprinters were significantly ahead of him.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeah, they just magically appear at the front right at the end. There's no battling for position for 20km beforehand.

And as for Cavendish being dropped on the slightest climb, let's not forget who won this stage in 2009:

erm...if they road that climb seriosuly he would of been out the back easily.

Anyway, have you noticed the fact that Cavendish has been dropped on the poggio in recent years?

Y: Evans
G: Ale-Jet
KOM: too hard to predict, just a lottery.
W: Gesink

 

[Bennyl]

Yellow: Contador
KOM: Soler
Green: Cavendish
White: Gesink

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

YELLOW: schleck
GREEN: cav
KOM: Tommy V. He has been climbing the best I've evr seen him climb and will be in the break all the time, so why not.
WHITE: Gesink -- I hope he gets ok odds. Anything over 3 would be epic.

 

[seaby71]

best odds about gesink will be 1.50 i think to win white jersey

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yellow: Contador
KOM: Soler
Green: Cavendish
White: Gesink

That's as pretty solid a lineup as I saw looking thru all the posts. Also saw lots of other posts for Soler, Tommy V., Kern, or the Lottery for KoM... all good picks.

My curveball for the KoM: Cunego, who's not quite a podiumite IMO.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

best odds about gesink will be 1.50 i think to win white jersey

I agree.
Tho, some of bookies are pretty ignorant in regards to cycling.
But Gesink is one of the riders who issually get low odds in races I have noticed.

 

[greenedge]

yellow. Andy Shleck
kom. Uran
Green. CAV/ GOSS
white. Gesink

 

[elpinto]

Yellow - AC
Green - Cav/Farrar/EBH
White - Gesink
KoM - Maybe GC contender?

 

[gustienordic]

I think this is close.

Yellow: Contador
Green: Sagan
KOM: Kern
White: Gesink

Unfortunately Sagan is not racing... I predict the same (or maybe Gadret/Cunego for KOM) and I think AP to not win stages, but still win the green.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Who'll have the yellow jersey after the TTT that 'll be very intersting to see!

 

[lancaster]

If you had three equal sprinters (and had no personal preferences), you would see that the new system is more equitable and more meaningful than before.

I'd want to see guys laboring and fighting it out in breaks and over mountains for the win.

the last 200m have people watching, i want the previous 150km to be interesting, every day, as well. having a prize that is fought for (in part) during this time a competition that rewards guts and time in the wind is better (both more equitable and meaningful).

 

[Midnightfright]

Who'll have the yellow jersey after the TTT that 'll be very intersting to see!

Whoever HTC give the honour too I would say.

 

[Mambo95]

Whoever HTC give the honour too I would say.

If HTC (or whoever) win by enough to take the jersey, then surely the rider who finished highest on stage 1 would be in yellow. Or have I got that wrong?