Tour de France King of the Mountains

[ericthesportsman6]

We have threads on the green jersey, and obviously the yellow, so why not the KOM? I would make a poll, but the competition can be so random that theres a few too many contenders for it. Some of the likely favorites are, Egoi Martinez, Matthew Lloyd, David Moncoutie, John Gadret, David de la Fuente, Rodriguez/Cunego(Depending on whether they focus on stages or GC), Eros Cappechi, Sylvester Szymd...My pick will be Martinez, or Rodriguez if he botches his GC hopes. Anyways, what does everyone else think?

 

[wagman67]

Richard Virenque comes out of retirement to capture number 8!!!!

No?

Rasmussen!!!

No, again?

Maybe Contador just goes for the the Spots and not the Yellow!!

No, I guess not.

Okay, someone wearing orange...and Spanish!

That's all I have.

 

[Rocksteady]

We have threads on the green jersey, and obviously the yellow, so why not the KOM? I would make a poll, but the competition can be so random that theres a few too many contenders for it. Some of the likely favorites are, Egoi Martinez, Matthew Lloyd, David Moncoutie, John Gadret, David de la Fuente, Rodriguez/Cunego(Depending on whether they focus on stages or GC), Eros Cappechi, Sylvester Szymd...My pick will be Martinez, or Rodriguez if he botches his GC hopes. Anyways, what does everyone else think?

Lloyd too tired from the Giro, de la Fuente will be killing himself pulling the peloton around for Astana (Everyone at Astana will I think).

Martinez v. Moncoutie for me. Umm... Moncoutie Go Frenchie!!

 

[The Hitch]

unfortunately moncoutie is not attending this tour. I dont think so anyway since i didnt see him in the presentation. Cofidis have chosen monier as their leader.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

unfortunately moncoutie is not attending this tour. I dont think so anyway since i didnt see him in the presentation. Cofidis have chosen monier as their leader.

He seems to be the only Frenchman he prefers the Vuelta to the tour. He'll probably win a stage there again.

 

[hrotha]

For a minute or two I didn't have the slightest idea who you were referring to when you said "Martinez". When a rider has such a common surname, we usually refer to him with his full name in all contexts: Egoi Martínez, Joaquim Rodríguez, Samuel Sánchez, etc.

 

[mowie133]

Lloyd too tired from the Giro, de la Fuente will be killing himself pulling the peloton around for Astana (Everyone at Astana will I think).

Martinez v. Moncoutie for me. Umm... Moncoutie Go Frenchie!!

not true buddy..he has come out an said that's his aim for the tour in the press an will go for points an a few break aways as his team boss said he could

 

[wiry pyruvity]

I am hoping that Cervelo lets Sastre go for the jersey ran than the GC...he's hurting, and i am thinking that this is part of the competition he could own...

 

[Christian]

What about Christophe Moreau?

Caisse doesn't really have big GC ambitions, Moreau will lose 15 minutes on the cobbles, then goes on one good breakaway on a tough mountain stage, gets an estimated 200 points at once, then sits back and tries to snag as many 3rd category climbs as possible.

Or maybe same scenario but with John Gadret - that would actually be great for my fantasy team.

Anyways I think it's going to be someone who was on the right breakaway and gets a lot of points at once and then only manages afterwards.

Plus I think the time is right for a French guy to win it again!

 

[wiry pyruvity]

moreau might be too bust shepparding sanchez of thar hills...if valverde had still been around, then maybe...there are a few frenchmen that could take this role...was looking forward to a pellizzoti defence...oh well.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Italian team full of talented, doping climbers....Liquigas!....One that's not a GC contender, but very good uphill.....Sylvester Szmyd!

Bad-a-bing!

 

[ferryman]

The guy who should and I hope will go for the dots is Cunego

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Lloyd has no chance; he won't get points on the summit finishes/late high category climbs, which means a LOT of 3rd and 4th category climbs. In the Giro's points system, that's not a big problem; if you don't have a big GC type going climb-hunting and hoovering the points up (like happened with Sella and Rujano) then it's comfortable for a lesser climber to pull in the points for 2nd and 3rd category climbs and the occasional 1st cat, and win the KOM with 50-60 points, like Wegmann did in 2004 and Lloyd did this year. The points differential between 1st and 2nd is large enough that that's fine, but in the Tour, that points differential is smaller, plus the difference in points between 3rd and 4th cat climbs and HC/1/2nd cat climbs is enormous, making the former almost irrelevant unless you're in the break practically every day.

 

[craig1985]

Cadel Evans.

 

[ferryman]

Cadel Evans.

Doubt it unless he loses 20+ minutes on a stage to the other GC guys.

 

[craig1985]

Sort of what I was implying

 

[mowie133]

Lloyd has no chance; he won't get points on the summit finishes/late high category climbs, which means a LOT of 3rd and 4th category climbs. In the Giro's points system, that's not a big problem; if you don't have a big GC type going climb-hunting and hoovering the points up (like happened with Sella and Rujano) then it's comfortable for a lesser climber to pull in the points for 2nd and 3rd category climbs and the occasional 1st cat, and win the KOM with 50-60 points, like Wegmann did in 2004 and Lloyd did this year. The points differential between 1st and 2nd is large enough that that's fine, but in the Tour, that points differential is smaller, plus the difference in points between 3rd and 4th cat climbs and HC/1/2nd cat climbs is enormous, making the former almost irrelevant unless you're in the break practically every day.

i kind agree with you..but big **** lol not sure what stage it is but there is 3 big climbs at the start of the day,i'm guessing but think there is a HC an 2 1ST cat...so if he plays it right he might get in the break away,the boy can climb with the best 30 or so when he wants to..

 

[Libertine Seguros]

i kind agree with you..but big **** lol not sure what stage it is but there is 3 big climbs at the start of the day,i'm guessing but think there is a HC an 2 1ST cat...so if he plays it right he might get in the break away,the boy can climb with the best 30 or so when he wants to..

But he already did 'when he wanted to' in the Giro, and on the L'Aquila stage he was dropped on the final couple of climbs, so Bakelandts and de Greef had to fight to keep points away from Xavi Tondó to defend that jersey.

After going for broke with five or six breakaways in the Giro, I'll be amazed and highly suspicious if he has another six or seven in him for the Tour, because it'll need more effort and points-hoovering at the Tour to get the jersey than in the Giro for the reasons I outlined, plus he'll need to try to outsprint faster guys at the top of minor climbs in week 1, when the smaller French teams will all be after a few days in the jersey.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Sort of what I was implying

NO, you were implying that he would gain 20 minutes!

 

[craig1985]

But he already did 'when he wanted to' in the Giro, and on the L'Aquila stage he was dropped on the final couple of climbs, so Bakelandts and de Greef had to fight to keep points away from Xavi Tondó to defend that jersey.

After going for broke with five or six breakaways in the Giro, I'll be amazed and highly suspicious if he has another six or seven in him for the Tour, because it'll need more effort and points-hoovering at the Tour to get the jersey than in the Giro for the reasons I outlined, plus he'll need to try to outsprint faster guys at the top of minor climbs in week 1, when the smaller French teams will all be after a few days in the jersey.

Do you think Thomas Voeckler could a have a real shot at the KOM?

 

[Sasquatch]

Do you think Thomas Voeckler could a have a real shot at the KOM?

Voeckler always gets in the breakaways early on. There are some points on offer on stage two. If he gets in that breakaway, he can easily pick up over ten points on that stage and it might be enough for him to target it. He can certainly do it...if he wants to.

 

[benpounder]

...the competition can be so random that theres a few too many contenders for it.

Lots of contenders. Just look at how Virenque won so many. Riders with initial illusions of a final GC podium running up against reality in time to alter plans.

I nominate Robert Gesink.

 

[Christian]

Do you think Thomas Voeckler could a have a real shot at the KOM?

Hm I'd say not really. He could definitely have it for some stages, but not all the way to Paris. When it comes to haute montaigne he couldn't really compete IMO

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd say a no for TV Tommy, but after coming 5th (now 4th since we are supposed to pretend Valverde wasn't there) to Mende in Paris-Nice, I know an in-form Voeckler can climb enough to at least be competitive, if he gets in the break with a couple of teammates every day. I just think that if a good climber like an Egoi Martínez or Rein Taaramäe decide to go for it, they'll drop him on the big climbs even if he'll outsprint them to the line on the smaller ones.

 

[theyoungest]

Lots of contenders. Just look at how Virenque won so many. Riders with initial illusions of a final GC podium running up against reality in time to alter plans.

I nominate Robert Gesink.

That would mean he's lost time in the first week. Which of course is a possibility, but otherwise he won't go in any breakaways. He's here for GC.