Tour de France Predictions

[RdBiker]

I could be wrong but Lance is my main favorite. You have to remember, he's a freaky responder to the "medical program." Remember not everybody seems the same benfit from a doping program. Lance really is a freak responder. 37 years old? So what?! Thats not old at all. I race guys that are top cat 1 racers in their 40s and even 50s.

It seems unrealistic that he would be able to (even with super-PEDs) get into good enough shape to beat Contador. Remember that Contador is probably on similar stuff than Lance is. MAYBE 2010 when he has gained more base fitness but not this year IMO.

 

[lostintime]

I doubt any of the Italians is winning the TDF anytime soon. They just seem to deflate at the Tour.... like a child letting a balloon go up in the sky. "Look mommy..... it's Frankie Pellizotti's mojo going bye-bye"

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

My TdF prediction;
Stijn De Volder will end 4th in GC.

 

[jonjungel]

I'll play it safe and go for the most obvious one:
Andy Schleck to win the white jersey.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

They might have the same problem as Astana in the Giro. Many top-10 finishers but no one who can challenge for the podium.

I might have to agree with you on this, but it will be interesting to see how Kreuziger and Nibali have developed since last year's TdF.

 

[Cobblestones]

I could be wrong but Lance is my main favorite. You have to remember, he's a freaky responder to the "medical program." Remember not everybody seems the same benfit from a doping program. Lance really is a freak responder. 37 years old? So what?! Thats not old at all. I race guys that are top cat 1 racers in their 40s and even 50s.

He's a freak responder, but not necessarily to everything. He cannot 'do' the same EPO as in 1999, because it will be tested for. Whatever they do now, maybe he doesn't respond in the same way? So, I would say, based on what I saw in the Giro, no, he won't win.

 

[Zoncolan]

I read that Pellizotti is doing the Tour this year as well. Liquigas look very strong to me, even stronger than at the Giro, with Kreuziger and Nibali together with Pellizotti. One of the strongest teams I'd say.

Could take the team competition ahead of Astana and Saxo.

Wonder how Nibali and Kreuziger reacted when they heard the news? Both missed the Giro in order to be given leadership at the Tour, and now they have Pellizotti crashing their party.
Hope the young guns can last the whole three weeks. Both looked good in the Ardennes. Every year I expect Kreuziger to deliver, and he always has a bad day in the mountains.

 

[Zoncolan]

My TdF prediction;
Stijn De Volder will end 4th in GC.

Bold prediction. I think he'll have at least one 'stinker' in the mountains and will lose minutes. Top 15 at best IMHO.

 

[Zoncolan]

He's a freak responder, but not necessarily to everything. He cannot 'do' the same EPO as in 1999, because it will be tested for. Whatever they do now, maybe he doesn't respond in the same way? So, I would say, based on what I saw in the Giro, no, he won't win.

I agree, top 10 is realistic. Top 5 wouldn't surprise me. Win? No way! Not the athlete he was and there isn't a medical program out there that can change that. Only way he can win is if 5 top guys have injuries, illnesses... highly unlikely.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Could take the team competition ahead of Astana and Saxo.

Wonder how Nibali and Kreuziger reacted when they heard the news? Both missed the Giro in order to be given leadership at the Tour, and now they have Pellizotti crashing their party.
Hope the young guns can last the whole three weeks. Both looked good in the Ardennes. Every year I expect Kreuziger to deliver, and he always has a bad day in the mountains.

I guess they will start out three captains, and then alter the tactics during the first week. Kreuziger will probably do the best opening TT of the trio, which leaves him in a good position. As I can recall, CSC did quite well with three GC riders last year.

 

[Zoncolan]

I guess they will start out three captains, and then alter the tactics during the first week. Kreuziger will probably do the best opening TT of the trio, which leaves him in a good position. As I can recall, CSC did quite well with three GC riders last year.

You're right about CSC last year and I guess Pellizotti won't have the same form he had at the Giro. As for the opening TT, I haven't a clue. Believe all three are pretty close on such a hilly course. I'm hoping for both Nibali and Kreuziger to make top 10.

Interestingly, Sastre said he viewed Menchov as one of his main rivals for the Tour title. I think they'll be evenly matched, with Carlos still a bit off his best form, and Menchov probably also coming down a notch from his Giro form.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I think Menchov will do well, but he won't be in as good form as in the Giro. I believe Sastre will be in better form in the Tour than he was in the Giro. And with Schleck and Contador also in top form, as I guess they will be, Menchov will have trouble keeping up on the climb to Ventoux for example.

 

[Zoncolan]

I think Menchov will do well, but he won't be in as good form as in the Giro. I believe Sastre will be in better form in the Tour than he was in the Giro. And with Schleck and Contador also in top form, as I guess they will be, Menchov will have trouble keeping up on the climb to Ventoux for example.

So, we pretty much agree on that. I think both Sastre and Menchov will have to work very hard to get on the podium. One place seems to be reserved for AC, but who will take the remaining spots? Andy Schleck to me looks like the only one that could stay with AC on the climbs. Will that be enough to get him a podium spot? I'm really looking forward to both the Dauphine and Tour de Suisse. Should answer a lot of questions.

I wonder how Vandevelde will do? Can he repeat his result from last year? Talk about donkey turned to thoroughbred.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Schleck could stay with Contador on the climbs, and use that as a road to the podium. Contador will crush him in the TT's though, as will Menchov, Evans etc. I believe Evans has what it takes to be on the podium again. He get's a lot of criticism on these boards, but second places in the TdF don't come easy.
So the podium to me is Contador, Evans and Schleck, in alphabetical order that is
Fourth and fifth to Menchov/Sastre
Sixth, seventh, eighth to Armstrong/Kreuziger/Vandevelde
Ninth and tenth to whoever of Valjavec/Kirchen/Rogers/Nibali/Pellizotti/++++

I have probably forgotten lots of names.
But it certainly will be a strong field.