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Tour de France Predictions

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Mar 18, 2009
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Cobblestones said:
Other bets you might want to consider:

9:1 for Astana sweeping the podium.
Evans to win a stage: 3:1.
McEwen winning the green jersey: 10:1
Winning nationality: French at 40:1

ETA: o.k. can we let it rest now for another 4 weeks. Please.

Happy to let it rest for 4 weeks, but McEwen is out with a fractured tibia. No chance to race the TdF.
 
May 13, 2009
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elapid said:
Happy to let it rest for 4 weeks, but McEwen is out with a fractured tibia. No chance to race the TdF.

I know. I probably should've put a smiley on there, but those were supposed to be utter cr@pshoot bets with incredibly lousy odds. C'mon, Astana sweeping the podium? French overall win? Think about what would need to happen! Nothing short of divine intervention and miraculous healing. Btw. did you see the odds on Kohl and Rasmussen winning?

The whole point was to show how premature any predictions are at this point when most teams probably aren't even close to determine their TdF riders! Remember, we've entered June now. The traditional month for breaking stories in the cycling world. Giro retro testing, team cars full of performance enhancing prescription drugs. Police raids on centrifuges, blood bags, gynecologists, coke dealers you name it, we've seen it. Riders getting lost between Italy and Mexico. Lab reports leaking. All has happened and all will happen again. And that's excluding all the "ordinary" reasons for why riders might not show up. Falls, teams folding, reshuffling or refocussing o season goals. Patience, patience. Come July we'll talk TdF. Now it's crazy month, Dauphine, Tour de Switzerland etc.
 
Cobblestones said:
I know. I probably should've put a smiley on there, but those were supposed to be utter cr@pshoot bets with incredibly lousy odds. C'mon, Astana sweeping the podium? French overall win? Think about what would need to happen! Nothing short of divine intervention and miraculous healing. Btw. did you see the odds on Kohl and Rasmussen winning?
Odds are based on bets placed, not on any sort of rational analysis.
.
 
May 26, 2009
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Contador for the win if Bruyneel won't mess it all up by desperately trying to get Lance to the top podium place. I don't really see anyone standing a chance against Contador.
 
Mar 18, 2009
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Menchov to do the double by simply boring the opposition into submission ;)

Since the D-L will tell us b*gger all about the form of the main contenders - modern preparation says you can't peak for D-L then the Tour - might as well make the fearless predictions now ;)
 
Mar 19, 2009
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I like Menchov, Sastre, etc. But I think Menchov is tired out after his Giro peaking. For sprinting I keep hearing about Boonen, is he allowed in after his coke positive? Maybe I missed the boat of information on him.

I think from the Astana camp Lance is the logical choice depending on his form and if he can jack up to his old level.
 
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BroDeal said:
Armstrong disrupts Contador's support. Andy Schleck wins it.

It will be interesting to see who makes their tour team. It will be a clear indication of who the real leader is.
 
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i predict its going to be really dull this year.. :D (no.. that doesnt mean cadel is going to win)

actually though, after three years on the champs elysees for 10 hours plus, in baking heat, im not sure i can cope this year... i think i may need to just find a quiet bar nearby to watch it from, unless anyone knows where to get tickets for the vip stands.. lol... or know a rain dance?
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Animal said:
Predictions?

French police bust a car full of EPO crossing the border.

Teams pull out "in protest" or "in disgust".

Riders "protest"

Race descends into farce.

I think you're reliving 1998. I'm still blaming the re-make of movies as the cause of this.

My prediction is no one will get busted during the Tour, it will be publicized as the cleanest Tour ever! Then in Sept./Oct. some French reporter will sneak into a UCI test lab and see that that was not true, and everyone will say he purposely marked the tests as postives by marking the resulsts with a vertical bar maing the "-"'s into "+"'s. Of course all the samples will then be lost/contaminated/mixed together keeping the masses from the truth. The reporter will be fired and outcast. Then the world loses the only investigative reporter we have...
 
Apr 19, 2009
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Okay i am making a serious prediction:

Contador is the leader of Astana, and wins the Tour.
Andy is on the podium, and Armstrong is either top 5 or on the podium.

The thing about this tour is that it goes up the Ventoux and that was one mountain Lance has said he always regretted not winning. My thoughts are this year he will and in doing so will help Contador win as part of their team agreement. I dont' think Lance is going to have the snap in the mountains like he has in the past, and not dominate the TTs.

I think Contador is one of the best riders for GTs but he has to be more dominating, all of his GT wins have been less than 2 minutes, the Tour less than 30 seconds......I am hoping this Tour shows he is one of the next legends.
 
Mar 19, 2009
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I could be wrong but Lance is my main favorite. You have to remember, he's a freaky responder to the "medical program." Remember not everybody seems the same benfit from a doping program. Lance really is a freak responder. 37 years old? So what?! Thats not old at all. I race guys that are top cat 1 racers in their 40s and even 50s.
 
Apr 12, 2009
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BigBoat said:
I could be wrong but Lance is my main favorite. You have to remember, he's a freaky responder to the "medical program." Remember not everybody seems the same benfit from a doping program. Lance really is a freak responder. 37 years old? So what?! Thats not old at all. I race guys that are top cat 1 racers in their 40s and even 50s.

why did I think that you were going to post about actual cycling wto doping talk, my fault for being foolish.
 
Mar 12, 2009
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Cavendish wins every flat stage
Contador wins overall
Voeckler attacks at least 4 times just after TV coverage begins including his standard first lap of Champs- Elysees! :D
 
Mar 11, 2009
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lookkg386 said:
Cavendish wins every flat stage
Contador wins overall
Voeckler attacks at least 4 times just after TV coverage begins including his standard first lap of Champs- Elysees! :D

Every flat stage for Cav??

A bit too optimistic;)... He will have the most stage wins but won't win the green jersey... Benatti or Oscar for green, hope Boonen will have a say in this too...

Contador for overall

Lance will try to win a stage( maybe Ventoux), while helping Contador. He proved he can be a team player in the Giro...

Soler for the mountain jersey

Team Astana

Hope they'll bar Valverde from the Tour... Not to bee paranoid, but the spanish riders have it good! The spanish authorities and sports agencies are protecting their riders and are hiding precious evidence about a few dirty ones.... hope the dope saga will end... if they let Valverde race it would seem unfair to Petachi and Boonen who were barred from riding for far less!
 
Belokki said:
Every flat stage for Cav??

A bit too optimistic;)... He will have the most stage wins but won't win the green jersey... Benatti or Oscar for green, hope Boonen will have a say in this too...

Contador for overall

Lance will try to win a stage( maybe Ventoux), while helping Contador. He proved he can be a team player in the Giro...

Soler for the mountain jersey

Team Astana

Hope they'll bar Valverde from the Tour... Not to bee paranoid, but the spanish riders have it good! The spanish authorities and sports agencies are protecting their riders and are hiding precious evidence about a few dirty ones.... hope the dope saga will end... if they let Valverde race it would seem unfair to Petachi and Boonen who were barred from riding for far less!
Forget about Soler, Barloworld is not invited. Besides his knee is screwed up.
 
Sastre to win, hopefully.
Freire/Cav for the green jersey.
Maybe Igor Anton or Efimkin for the polka-dot. This jersey is too hard to predict though.
White jersey could be Andy Schleck again
Either Saxo Bank or Astana for the team, I'll go for Saxo Bank.


Combativity to either Sylvain again or Voeckler. A stage win for either or both of these :D

And Mr Moreau :D :D :D

I think that Euskaltel will have a good tour for some reason as well
 
Apr 28, 2009
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I read that Pellizotti is doing the Tour this year as well. Liquigas look very strong to me, even stronger than at the Giro, with Kreuziger and Nibali together with Pellizotti. One of the strongest teams I'd say.
 
May 26, 2009
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kjetilraknerud said:
I read that Pellizotti is doing the Tour this year as well. Liquigas look very strong to me, even stronger than at the Giro, with Kreuziger and Nibali together with Pellizotti. One of the strongest teams I'd say.

They might have the same problem as Astana in the Giro. Many top-10 finishers but no one who can challenge for the podium.