Tour de France - rest day1 round up

[Dedelou]

change the dynamic of the Mountain stages to something not even close to what we were looking at before the race

Very interesting point. We never expected the first 9 days to have such impact in changing almost every single team original tactics.
Except for the TTT that yielded results consistent with what most experts had predicted and time gaps of little or no significances, all the other stages had drastic effects on what will be the final top 20 finish in Paris and how the race will be conducted when the high mountains comes

 

[b.broadhurst]

I don't believe that Velits will be attacking in the mountains. His breakthrough Vuelta result was achieved largely by grimly hanging on to better climbers and then an incredible ITT. If he's attacking it'll be because he has lost big time already.

Velits has to attack, with HTC struggling for a sponsor and him not being happy as part of the Cavendish train, he has to show that he is a GC contender and leader of a team.

His form is better than last years Vuelta and will be up there on every climb.

 

[Jamsque]

I've been saying this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: Contador is still going to win. There are four decisive MTFs to come: Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Lautaret and Alpe d'Huez. He is going to follow Evans and Basso and the Schlecks on two of them and ride away from them on the other two. He is going to beat all of them in the ITT. He is going to win the Tour de France, probably by more than a minute.

I know all the fanboys are panicking right now, but don't worry. It's the rest day tomorrow. He will 'bounce back'. His team has been invisible so far but they will dominate the front of the peloton in the Alps.

 

[Gloin22]

Geraint Thomas impressed me very much in first week.

 

[b.broadhurst]

I've been saying this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: Contador is still going to win. There are four decisive MTFs to come: Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Lautaret and Alpe d'Huez. He is going to follow Evans and Basso and the Schlecks on two of them and ride away from them on the other two. He is going to beat all of them in the ITT. He is going to win the Tour de France, probably by more than a minute.

I know all the fanboys are panicking right now, but don't worry. It's the rest day tomorrow. He will 'bounce back'. His team has been invisible so far but they will dominate the front of the peloton in the Alps.

That's if he doesn't pull out. If he finds his legs then I have no doubts that he will win but right now he is struggling. Euskatel and Saxo Bank in the mountains are going to be a force together.

 

[RdBiker]

1. Sanchez is only 2 minutes behind Schleck, he has a better TT and better team for the mountains, also his form is better than last years Tour while I feel atm Schleck has not reached last years form.
2. Contador has alot of power within the team, for example in the selection of his close friend Noval instead of Baden Cooke. He has more to gain if Sanchez wins and joins the team if Contador is suspended. Porte has shown what he can do by his 7th in last years Giro and CAS will always be a domestique.

If A.Schleck and Contador are on form (which I believe is the case) then it comes up to just them two. Once they put the hammer down no one can follow (for too long).

I'd like to see more tactics involved but unfortunately if both riders are in top form there's very little others can do. Leopard and Saxo are both strong enough to protect them until the road gets steep enough. Then Contador will attack and Schleck will follow.

So maybe we should hope that neither are in top form

 

[b.broadhurst]

Geraint Thomas impressed me very much in first week.

He needs to help Uran in the mountains now so that one of them can win the white jersey or get a stage win.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Velits has to attack, with HTC struggling for a sponsor and him not being happy as part of the Cavendish train, he has to show that he is a GC contender and leader of a team.

His form is better than last years Vuelta and will be up there on every climb.

He doesn't HAVE to attack in the mountains. That would be counterintuitive to how he had success in Spain.

Velits was dropped on the Xorret del Catí. He lost time to Vallnord Sector Pal. He had a good day on Peña Cabarga but was still 45" behind the stage winner - and that final climb is only 6km long (but is steep). He was excellent to Lagos de Covadonga without attacking, but paid for it when he was dropped on the Alto de Cotobello the next day. However, he put in a stunning ITT in Peñafiel to win the stage and rocket back into contention (he had been at 4'27", and came back to just 1'59") then was the last of the top 6 to Bola del Mundo (though at that point he'd done enough to preserve his podium place so didn't need to sprint for the final few seconds).

He attacked a total of 0 times in the mountains and made no time whatsoever over Nibali (1st), Mosquera (2nd) or Rodríguez (4th) in them. In fact, only on the Lagos de Covadonga stage did he make any time on Fränk Schleck (5th and recovering from injury) or Xavier Tondó (6th) in the mountains, whereas they both took time back from him in the mountains elsewhere. Take the ITT out and he would be behind Fränk Schleck and only 23" ahead of Tondó (most of which came from the TTT).

So I don't expect to see him trying to go ballistic in the mountains at all.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He needs to help Uran in the mountains now so that one of them can win the white jersey or get a stage win.

Geraint Thomas is not a good enough climber to win the white jersey.

 

[b.broadhurst]

If A.Schleck and Contador are on form (which I believe is the case) then it comes up to just them two. Once they put the hammer down no one can follow (for too long).

I'd like to see more tactics involved but unfortunately if both riders are in top form there's very little others can do. Leopard and Saxo are both strong enough to protect them until the road gets steep enough. Then Contador will attack and Schleck will follow.

So maybe we should hope that neither are in top form

I don't think either are in top form atm. But I do think that things are alot closer this year, the main GC contenders are in better shape this year after not riding the Giro and finding there form in the Dauphine and the Tour de Suisse.

Saxo Bank will make it very hard for Leopard in the climbs, Porte, CAS, Hernandez and Navarro can set such a high pace, that's if they are not knackered. Don't forget they have the extra help of Tiralongo now.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Velits has to attack, with HTC struggling for a sponsor and him not being happy as part of the Cavendish train, he has to show that he is a GC contender and leader of a team.

Velits will best show that he is a GC contender and leader of a team by finishing as high on GC as he can. That is not compatible with attacking superior climbers in the high mountains. If he does that without having lost a lot of time already, he is a fool.

He's too dangerous to be allowed to head off into the distance without people following him, but not good enough to ride the best guys in the world off his wheel. He will be another of the GC contenders we all know and, ahem, love who hold on for dear life in the mountains and wait for the ITT.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Geraint Thomas is not a good enough climber to win the white jersey.

With Gesink more than likely to withdraw, he has to be one of the best left in the competition. Van Gaderan and Mollema both sacrificed themselves for there teams and will continue to until there respective leaders are out of contention.

Thomas also has the most superior time trial out of nearly all the young riders.

 

[jobiwan]

With Gesink more than likely to withdraw, he has to be one of the best left in the competition. Van Gaderan and Mollema both sacrificed themselves for there teams and will continue to until there respective leaders are out of contention.

Thomas also has the most superior time trial out of nearly all the young riders.

But he can't climb, it's that simple. Taaramae has to be the favorite.

 

[The Hitch]

I've been saying this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: Contador is still going to win. There are four decisive MTFs to come: Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Lautaret and Alpe d'Huez. He is going to follow Evans and Basso and the Schlecks on two of them and ride away from them on the other two. He is going to beat all of them in the ITT. He is going to win the Tour de France, probably by more than a minute.

I know all the fanboys are panicking right now, but don't worry. It's the rest day tomorrow. He will 'bounce back'. His team has been invisible so far but they will dominate the front of the peloton in the Alps.

Andrew is a lot better than Evans and Basso.

Contador was unable to ride away from him on any mountain in last years tdf. He only made 31 seconds on the itt.

This kind of performance in this years Tour will get him knowhere. So even before any other factors are taken into account he will need a significantly superior performance this year to get anywher near Andrew.

Then you have to factor in he crushed the Giro, the most difficult Grand Tour since riders stopped having to repair their own bikes, just over a month ago, and so his entire preperation is out of the window and he will be very tired.

You suggest he will dope but then so will Andy big time.

Andy has an awesome team, and his entire season is geared towards a peak in this race.

So what am i missing that brings you to the conclusion that Contador will crush Andrew in the mountains?

 

[Ramira]

With Gesink more than likely to withdraw, he has to be one of the best left in the competition. Van Gaderan and Mollema both sacrificed themselves for there teams and will continue to until there respective leaders are out of contention.

Thomas also has the most superior time trial out of nearly all the young riders.

Ehm what? Gesink more than likely to withdraw? Did you see todays stage, he came in only 8 seconds behind, with a rest day and 2 relatively easy stages coming up and Gesink looking better again he's more likely to be top 5 then to withdraw.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I've been saying this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: Contador is still going to win. There are four decisive MTFs to come: Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Lautaret and Alpe d'Huez. He is going to follow Evans and Basso and the Schlecks on two of them and ride away from them on the other two. He is going to beat all of them in the ITT. He is going to win the Tour de France, probably by more than a minute.

I know all the fanboys are panicking right now, but don't worry. It's the rest day tomorrow. He will 'bounce back'. His team has been invisible so far but they will dominate the front of the peloton in the Alps.

The fanboy squeals are nearly deafening, but I still make him the favourite until and unless he conclusively shows that he doesn't have the goods on a big mountain stage.

 

[jobiwan]

Yes, the fanboy squeals are nearly deafening, but I still make him the favourite until and unless he conclusively shows that he doesn't have the goods on a big mountain stage.

Too bad we have to wait until Thursday to find out, but the riders probably could use a couple of "easy" days.

 

[Ramira]

Andrew is a lot better than Evans and Basso.

Contador was unable to ride away from him on any mountain in last years tdf. He only made 31 seconds on the itt.

This kind of performance in this years Tour will get him knowhere. So even before any other factors are taken into account he will need a significantly superior performance this year to get anywher near Andrew.

Then you have to factor in he crushed the Giro, the most difficult Grand Tour since riders stopped having to repair their own bikes just over a month ago, and so his entire preperation is out of the window and he will be very tired.

You suggest he will dope but then so will Andy big time.

Andy has an awesome team, and his entire season is geared towards a peak in this race.

So what am i missing that brings you to the conclusion that Contador will crush Andrew in the mountains?

I have to agree with the Hitch here, right now there's no true indication that Contador will beat Andy as he's not looking better then he did last year and he needs to be quite a bit better. Then again it seems 90% of this forum doesn't like Andy at all so I'm guessing that's probably a large part of 'believing' Alberto will win easily.

 

[Parrulo]

Velits, Basso, Cunego, Gesink, S.Sanchez and Contador are all the type to attack so the mountains will not be dull. The group will not allow the Schlecks to dictate the pace and find there own rhythm.

i wouldn't call what basso does really attacking. when he is form and is the superior climber he just puts his own pace and drops every off his wheel like he did to evans on the zoncolan which i think is absolutely awesome lol

 

[Libertine Seguros]

With Gesink more than likely to withdraw, he has to be one of the best left in the competition. Van Gaderan and Mollema both sacrificed themselves for there teams and will continue to until there respective leaders are out of contention.

Thomas also has the most superior time trial out of nearly all the young riders.

One of the best climbers left? No way. Coppel, Taaramäe, Urán, Jeannesson, Rolland, Mollema, van Garderen, Costa... all are better climbers than Thomas. Easily.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Velits will best show that he is a GC contender and leader of a team by finishing as high on GC as he can. That is not compatible with attacking superior climbers in the high mountains. If he does that without having lost a lot of time already, he is a fool.

He's too dangerous to be allowed to head off into the distance without people following him, but not good enough to ride the best guys in the world off his wheel. He will be another of the GC contenders we all know and, ahem, love who hold on for dear life in the mountains and wait for the ITT.

He doesn't HAVE to attack in the mountains. That would be counterintuitive to how he had success in Spain.

Velits was dropped on the Xorret del Catí. He lost time to Vallnord Sector Pal. He had a good day on Peña Cabarga but was still 45" behind the stage winner - and that final climb is only 6km long (but is steep). He was excellent to Lagos de Covadonga without attacking, but paid for it when he was dropped on the Alto de Cotobello the next day. However, he put in a stunning ITT in Peñafiel to win the stage and rocket back into contention (he had been at 4'27", and came back to just 1'59") then was the last of the top 6 to Bola del Mundo (though at that point he'd done enough to preserve his podium place so didn't need to sprint for the final few seconds).

He attacked a total of 0 times in the mountains and made no time whatsoever over Nibali (1st), Mosquera (2nd) or Rodríguez (4th) in them. In fact, only on the Lagos de Covadonga stage did he make any time on Fränk Schleck (5th and recovering from injury) or Xavier Tondó (6th) in the mountains, whereas they both took time back from him in the mountains elsewhere. Take the ITT out and he would be behind Fränk Schleck and only 23" ahead of Tondó (most of which came from the TTT).

So I don't expect to see him trying to go ballistic in the mountains at all.

I wasn't saying he had to go ballistic, he's not Voeckler or Hoogerland that attacks every day. But to do well you have to attack from the pack, he is in the form of his life and is out to prove his capabilities on the biggest cycling stage.

Mosquera cannot be included in this, he has doped. Velits will be able to ride away from most bar a handful of riders and then make up any lost time with his sensational time trial, top 5 for sure overall.

 

[jobiwan]

Both Tommy V. and Tommy D. are looking good, BTW!

 

[b.broadhurst]

Ehm what? Gesink more than likely to withdraw? Did you see todays stage, he came in only 8 seconds behind, with a rest day and 2 relatively easy stages coming up and Gesink looking better again he's more likely to be top 5 then to withdraw.

After todays stage he said that he cannot climb with any speed due to his back and that he was overcompensating and was feeling the strain in his legs. This does not sound good and I feel that he will withdraw.

 

[Jamsque]

Andrew is a lot better than Evans and Basso.

Contador was unable to ride away from him on any mountain in last years tdf. He only made 31 seconds on the itt.

This kind of performance in this years Tour will get him knowhere. So even before any other factors are taken into account he will need a significantly superior performance this year to get anywher near Andrew.

Then you have to factor in he crushed the Giro, the most difficult Grand Tour since riders stopped having to repair their own bikes just over a month ago, and so his entire preperation is out of the window and he will be very tired.

You suggest he will dope but then so will Andy big time.

Andy has an awesome team, and his entire season is geared towards a peak in this race.

So what am i missing that brings you to the conclusion that Contador will crush Andrew in the mountains?

Yes, he crushed the Giro, but I don't think that is slowing him down at all. He is not going to crush the tour, but that's only because he lost nearly two minutes in the first week. This is the guy who won a grand tour a few years back on zero race miles and two weeks preparation.

Contador didn't need to crush Andy in the mountains last year, he rode defensively on the vast majority of the uphill finishes. This year he has time to make up, so he is going to attack and attack and attack, and he is going to break Andy.

Don't get it twisted, Hitch: I really hope I am wrong. I really hope I am wrong. I will be cheering for Andy and Cadel and Ivan all the way, but the fact remains that Contador is on a streak of six consecutive Grand Tour victories. I think it is going to take a hell of a lot more than a bruised knee to stop him.

 

[Parrulo]

I've been saying this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: Contador is still going to win. There are four decisive MTFs to come: Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Lautaret and Alpe d'Huez. He is going to follow Evans and Basso and the Schlecks on two of them and ride away from them on the other two. He is going to beat all of them in the ITT. He is going to win the Tour de France, probably by more than a minute.

I know all the fanboys are panicking right now, but don't worry. It's the rest day tomorrow. He will 'bounce back'. His team has been invisible so far but they will dominate the front of the peloton in the Alps.

ok we get it you think contador is on the juice and with the rest day coming will get a boost, no need to say it in every single thread in this forum