Tour de France - Stage 8, 195km - Castres / Ax 3 Domaines, July 6th

[SetonHallPirate]

Purito did win the 2012 Giro stage into Cortina d'Ampezzo, which finished on a descent.

 

[Pentacycle]

The Pailheres descent is actually pretty straightforward, with only a few hairpins on the way down. On top of that it's relatively flat. So it should be easy for Sky to control the race on the way to the MTF.

And it's very hard to imagine favourites like Purito, Contador doing stuff like that in this early stage of the Tour. There's a big risk of blowing up in the end.

The breakaway has a big chance IMO.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Purito did win the 2012 Giro stage into Cortina d'Ampezzo, which finished on a descent.

That doesn't say it all though, even Gesink has won a stage ending in a descent

 

[Gugashwill]

The Pailheres descent is actually pretty straightforward, with only a few hairpins on the way down. On top of that it's relatively flat. So it should be easy for Sky to control the race on the way to the MTF.

Six hairpins in a row before and after long straits. Worth trying.

 

[all_in]

The best is Evans but on downhills Valverde is much better than Contador and Purito.I remember an ITT where Piti on every corner from a downhill put 1 second to all other riders.
Also Hesjeda,Fuglsang,Kreuziger and Quintana are very good downhillers.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

The Pailheres descent is actually pretty straightforward, with only a few hairpins on the way down. On top of that it's relatively flat. So it should be easy for Sky to control the race on the way to the MTF.

And it's very hard to imagine favourites like Purito, Contador doing stuff like that in this early stage of the Tour. There's a big risk of blowing up in the end.

Oh really, an easy descent, that's useful information! You should've told me that earlier so I wouldn't get wild fantasies about Contador and Evans attacking on the descent. Now I will be disappointed tomorrow.

 

[slosada]

I got 100% of my predictions for today, but tomorrow is a different story.
Contador and Quintana have not peaked just yet... This is when Sky wants to buy insurance.
Will they succeed? I'm not sure. Contador might have enough support, Valverde as well (Rui is good shape).
I think Froome will get this stage but with minimal differences.

Now from my heart, I dream of Quintana crushing the whole field

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

The best is Evans but on downhills Valverde is much better than Contador and Purito.I remember an ITT where Piti on every corner from a downhill put 1 second to all other riders.
Also Hesjeda,Fuglsangl and Quintana are very good downhillers.

Quintana is the best descender in the TDF imo. Superb bike handling skills, which he showed in the dauphine last year in the descent of col de Joux Plane and this year in the Pais Vasco TT.

Costa was also very good in the descents in Suisse this year. So if Movistar wants to do all tactical and set up big moves, they certainly have the options.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador to attack a few times without really getting away. Then Froome viciously counterattacks in the last 1,5km. Mollema hangs on for dear life and barely wins it in the sprint.

 

[Gugashwill]

I'm thinking about this flat last kilometer, what do you all think about eventual pursue ride between Froome and Contador.
I'm interested in all options.

 

[ILovecycling]

Anyone who says anything positive about Sky is of course a 'crazy sky fanboy'. Yawn

too much positive bs,not only last post

Haha, that made me smile.

The world now is split into Sky lovers and Sky haters. A man can't be somewhere in between.. lol

Anyway, pretty reasonable that Porte can do top 5 tomorrow, why not?

as i said ,this is too much,,,
as for top 5,I dont think so ,maybe if there is 10 people group and he sprints to top5,but if there are differences top5 is not reaonable for him imo

 

[Pentacycle]

Contador to attack a few times without really getting away. Then Froome viciously counterattacks in the last 1,5km. Mollema hangs on for dear life and barely wins it in the sprint.

This is actually a pretty good summary of the Conta vs. Froome battles so far this season. Then the last part of the post complete ruins it.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I'm thinking about this flat last kilometer, what do you all think about eventual pursue ride between Froome and Contador.
I'm interested in all options.

If Froome goes in the last km he would beat Contador head-to-head in that situation. Contador must attack earlier in the climb but I think he may wait till the final week.

 

[ILovecycling]

I got 100% of my predictions for today, but tomorrow is a different story.
Contador and Quintana have not peaked just yet... This is when Sky wants to buy insurance.
Will they succeed? I'm not sure. Contador might have enough support, Valverde as well (Rui is good shape).
I think Froome will get this stage but with minimal differences.

Now from my heart, I dream of Quintana crushing the whole field

yea,me too,it would be awesome
still i wonder how Movistar will perform,they have at least 4 great climbers - Q,Piti,Rui and Amador and in addition to this they have other decent domestiques like Plaza or Erviti.

Quintana is the best descender in the TDF imo. Superb bike handling skills, which he showed in the dauphine last year in the descent of col de Joux Plane and this year in the Pais Vasco TT.

Costa was also very good in the descents in Suisse this year. So if Movistar wants to do all tactical and set up big moves, they certainly have the options.

Sagan and Chava say hello ,but from GC you are probably right,Joux Plane descent was crazy indeed.

 

[Miburo]

Hanging on for dear life when Froome goes full ***. That's what Contador will do unless he has really REALLY good legs.

Then he might go himself. Contador will never attack if he knows he can't stay away, not in the tour, not in the first MTF. He learned that the hard way during the races this season.

 

[chamber34]

NIEVE WILL be in a break, and win stage from anton an costa

 

[ILovecycling]

Hanging on for dear life when Froome goes full ***. That's what Contador will do unless he has really REALLY good legs.

Then he might go himself.

which he hasnt,maybe in 3rd week...but i have same opinion like you - hanging on for dear life

 

[postmanhat]

I got 100% of my predictions for today, but tomorrow is a different story.
Contador and Quintana have not peaked just yet... This is when Sky wants to buy insurance.
Will they succeed? I'm not sure. Contador might have enough support, Valverde as well (Rui is good shape).
I think Froome will get this stage but with minimal differences.

Now from my heart, I dream of Quintana crushing the whole field

I also think Sky will be a fading force by the middle of next week. It wasn't a great squad to start with, and they're going to miss Thomas. Seemingly sub-par Stannard and Kiryienka are even bigger worries. Froome, with Porte, is still the favourite I suppose, but they're going to have to learn how to wheelsuck other teams

I fancy Quintana as well tomorrow. Good parcours for him, and still in his comfort zone. Anything to naff Valverde off

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Sagan and Chava say hello ,but from GC you are probably right,Joux Plane descent was crazy indeed.

yes, you're right, I was only thinking about GC riders.

 

[lastplacerider]

There are 10-15 riders from the top 5 teams of sky, movistar, saxo, bmc, and katusha. That still leaves 15-20 gc riders at 1:30 or less from yellow. Is there anyone they will not chase down? Are Poels, Anton, Navarro, Peraud, Niemiec a threat? Peraud is having a decent year and does a pretty good TT.

 

[batchuba]

The sheer number of habitually aggressive GC guys present and correct suggest there must be some kind of late fireworks, which will presumably take place against a backdrop of ailing Garmin, Europcar and Euskatel attack detritus.

I'm going to plump for Purito - as I have perceptively noticed that he is rather good at riding his bike up hills.

 

[burning]

This stage is way too easy for Nieve, he wont be a factor for sure
I think nothing will happen tomorrow, some 2nd rate rider will take the stage

 

[Gugashwill]

Here's what a sponsor betting house is thinking.

 

[Ruudz0r]

So no reports on snow or that it is impossible to go to ax 3 domaines or Pailheres?

That must be a seasons first.

 

[Frosty]

There are 10-15 riders from the top 5 teams of sky, movistar, saxo, bmc, and katusha. That still leaves 15-20 gc riders at 1:30 or less from yellow. Is there anyone they will not chase down? Are Poels, Anton, Navarro, Peraud, Niemiec a threat? Peraud is having a decent year and does a pretty good TT.

Certainly going to be interesting to see who gets into the break. Could be quite a lot of people in the top 50 who will hope that the GC teams will let them go as they wont be an overall threat and Sky might not want to take the yellow jersey this early. Sky/Saxo cant stop them all so someone will get in there who isnt far down. If it was less mountainous than Chavanel would be a good bet. He may well still try but cant see him winning.

Feillu, Le Mevel, Voeckler, de Gendt all finished in the Cavbus today. Can imagine them having a go tomorrow if not injured/ill.