Tour de France - Stage 8, 195km - Castres / Ax 3 Domaines, July 6th

[Kwibus]

It certainly would be nice to see something exciting on tomorrow's stage(maybe Sunday too!) and not have to wait until the alps.

If not, at least I have 2 more matches of Wimbledon.

There will be action tomorrow. I'm convinced of that.

Either Contador or Froome will make sure of that.

 

[Warhawk]

TBH I think despite all the discussion of how strong Sky is as a team, whether they're stronger or weaker than last year with Wiggins, the real reason (in my opinion) that this is less predictable than it appears is that there's a deeper field of young fringe GC-contenders than there was last year. I mean, what did we really have last year? VDB, Nibali, Evans, Tejay. Who else did Sky really care about paying attention to after a couple days in the mountains? Roche and Zubeldia? Really? OK, maybe Menchov, but that didn't last long.

With Quintana and Talansky and Kwiatkowski as newcomers, and a bunch of guys like Tejay and Pinot and Fuglsang and Martin and Rolland with another year of experience under their belts, and then obviously Contador's return, the really interesting thing is how Sky is going to handle keeping tabs on a whole bunch of people who may or may not contend for the podium, but can clearly have a very good day, and Sky may end up having to make more difficult decisions regarding who they want to put the effort in to chase down.

 

[Angliru]

Why thank you sir. I do like to drop the occasional analytical bombshell.

I just noticed your avatar and I must say that I can't help but be honored to welcome such a person who has an appreciation for Jose Manuel Fuente, one of the greatest climbers in the history of professional cycling and one of my all time favorites after reading of his exploits in a history of the Vuelta and the Tour.

 

[fantomas]

There will be action tomorrow. I'm convinced of that.

Either Contador or Froome will make sure of that.

I think so too. Either of them will want to show the other. I think Froome is more eager than Contador, though. Contador will be confident not losing too much time, while Froome will be eager to gain enough time for the 3rd week.

 

[Angliru]

There will be action tomorrow. I'm convinced of that.

Either Contador or Froome will make sure of that.

I'm quite certain of it as well. Both are rather impulsive, add to that Purito's level of confidence versus his grand tour rivals has been heightened over the years with his near misses in the Giro and Vuelta, Valverde's maturing as a grand tour rider with Quintana by his side, Evans hoping to make up for last year....there are so many stories among the gc hopefuls that something has to happen.

 

[Kwibus]

I'm quite certain of it as well. Both are rather impulsive, add to that Purito's level of confidence versus his grand tour rivals has been heightened over the years with his near misses in the Giro and Vuelta, Valverde's maturing as a grand tour rider with Quintana by his side, Evans hoping to make up for last year....there are so many stories among the gc hopefuls that something has to happen.

Yes, but Purito and Valverde tend to wait for the final kms. Contador usually doesn't wait that long unless he doesn't feel good.
Froome will attack from about 5-6km to go, maybe before. I hope Contador is good though, not dominating good, but I'm afraid that if Contador isn't good that Froome will be dominating.

 

[willbick]

Yes, but Purito and Valverde tend to wait for the final kms. Contador usually doesn't wait that long unless he doesn't feel good.
Froome will attack from about 5-6km to go, maybe before. I hope Contador is good though, not dominating good, but I'm afraid that if Contador isn't good that Froome will be dominating.

no he wont

 

[Ferminal]

So no reports on snow or that it is impossible to go to ax 3 domaines or Pailheres?

That must be a seasons first.

Don't push our luck!

 

[Jelantik]

Looking at the profile, with the mountain close together without flat in between, do you think some one is going to pull another andy galibier? attack from long range?

 

[ElleSquared]

Any chance the Garmin GC contenders (or is it pretenders? ) possibly pull out a stage win here, if Froome and Contador are waiting to peak later on? I think I read somewhere that JV was suggesting their approach to this Tour would be as animators, so perhaps some attacks from Hesjedal or Millar?

(A girl can dream, can't she? )

 

[sittingbison]

What the hell is "whinging"? My computer's spellcheck doesn't recognize it as an actual word.

It means incessant complaining, generally without much cause. In the old days there was a colloquialism "whinging pom"

It is pronounced "win jing"

 

[uconnryan]

Any reason not to think Sky set the pace at the front dropping everybody but GC guys and catching the break at the same time?

Then Purito takes it in the sprint. (debatable)

Who's gonna hold off the Sky train out front though?

 

[RiccoDinko]

Purito will come out of hiding all year, but get pipped by Valverde at the line

 

[Jelantik]

Any chance the Garmin GC contenders (or is it pretenders? ) possibly pull out a stage win here, if Froome and Contador are waiting to peak later on? I think I read somewhere that JV was suggesting their approach to this Tour would be as animators, so perhaps some attacks from Hesjedal or Millar?

(A girl can dream, can't she? )

maybe dan martin will.

 

[airstream]

Contador will never attack if he knows he can't stay away, not in the tour, not in the first MTF. He learned that the hard way during the races this season.

It is checked out only with attack...

 

[hughmoore]

It means incessant complaining, generally without much cause. In the old days there was a colloquialism "whinging pom"

It is pronounced "win jing"

I thought it was pronounced "Wig gins"


Hugh

 

[airstream]

since presumably you are looking at gc candidates I'll add valverde.

1Valverde
gap
2 Contador -based entirely on one day in 2011 when he outdescended all gt contenders bar samu for about 20 seconds on pinerolo)

Before that he was seen as a poor descender but that was probably because he never really had to go hard on descents.
3 Evans
4 murito
gap
5 Porte (presumably. Never really tested though)
6 froome (based on tirreno stage)
7 schleck (based on own comments campainging against descents and 2011 gap, but he's done much better on other occasions.

Disagree. There is a big difference between being a good descender and be alone against group 4-5 guys. lose time and be declared a bad descender. Tirreno stage gives 0 soil for a descent analysis because of easiness of descent. Froome was dropped uphill, felt cold and couldn't catch the 1st group. However I don't know any rider who could overtake (and even approach to) Sagan, Sanchez and Nibali changing each other on the front. Nonetheless it's not the reason to call them bad descenders. Maybe you know such riders?

 

[ElleSquared]

maybe dan martin will.

Why is Martin more likely than Millar or Hesjedal?
(This is not a snarky question..I'm legitimately curious as to what your thoughts are based on. I know/understand very little about the sport outside of the basics, so I'm just honestly trying to understand the intricacies of strategy and tactics, to figure out why an attack/win/etc would be more probable from one guy over another....I'm a newb! Bear with me.... )

 

[Ferminal]

They may try and get someone like Navardauskas, Dennis or Millar (Millar just isn't a climber) in the break. It would still be a struggle to beat the top break climbers though. Martin/Talansky/Hesjedal/Danielson will be trying to ride GC for now. Whoever loses time over the next couple of days will look to get in a break in the final week.

Martin is their most likely to win an MTF as he has already beaten good opposition on one this year, his best climbing form this year is better than that of anyone else on the team. Plus his L-B-L win showed he can be as strong as the likes of Valverde/Rodriguez.

Hesjedal has a cracked rib, and there are still massive question marks about his form this year and whether or not he's recovered from the problems he had in the Giro/Suisse. He may be at his Giro 2012 best, but it's a low probability.

Talansky is usually quite consistent so should go quite well, but his best isn't really good enough to beat this opposition.

I'd go Martin > Talansky > Hesjedal as their best chances for a mountain win.

 

[Afrank]

Looking at the profile, with the mountain close together without flat in between, do you think some one is going to pull another andy galibier? attack from long range?

This early? No way. I don't expect any of the top contenders to attack early at least. Maybe on the later stages, but it depends entirely on what has happened in the race. Those long range attacks are typically done when all else fails as a last ditch effort.

If anyone goes from the first climb it will be someone that has already lost quite a bit and is a opportune attacker (like Rolland).

 

[The Barb]

Liking Valverde's chances given the way it flattens out in the last kilometre. If he can hang with the lead group then surely he'd have the best finishing kick?

Would be much more interesting if they had bonus seconds ... but I guess that's for another thread.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

TBH I think despite all the discussion of how strong Sky is as a team, whether they're stronger or weaker than last year with Wiggins, the real reason (in my opinion) that this is less predictable than it appears is that there's a deeper field of young fringe GC-contenders than there was last year. I mean, what did we really have last year? VDB, Nibali, Evans, Tejay. Who else did Sky really care about paying attention to after a couple days in the mountains? Roche and Zubeldia? Really? OK, maybe Menchov, but that didn't last long.

With Quintana and Talansky and Kwiatkowski as newcomers, and a bunch of guys like Tejay and Pinot and Fuglsang and Martin and Rolland with another year of experience under their belts, and then obviously Contador's return, the really interesting thing is how Sky is going to handle keeping tabs on a whole bunch of people who may or may not contend for the podium, but can clearly have a very good day, and Sky may end up having to make more difficult decisions regarding who they want to put the effort in to chase down.

This matters. I pointed out in another thread that crashes and silly events haven't yet chopped down those who can consider themselves GC contenders.

There will be enough talent in the main group that it won't be a Froome/Contador standoff. This may be one of the more exciting and wide open (GC) stages we've seen in a few years.

 

[Mongolian Torque]

Garmin Tricks...

Why is Martin more likely than Millar or Hesjedal?
(This is not a snarky question..I'm legitimately curious as to what your thoughts are based on. I know/understand very little about the sport outside of the basics, so I'm just honestly trying to understand the intricacies of strategy and tactics, to figure out why an attack/win/etc would be more probable from one guy over another....I'm a newb! Bear with me.... )

From what I hear, Hesjedal is a bit of a wild kook. He can eat pain like Mark Fraser blocking a Chara slapshot at 132kph...

Did anyone see Hesjedal sprint for the line today? I think he's feeling pretty good in spite of that cracked rib.

Garmin still has a few tricks for Gloome and his Skybots...

Hesjedal, Martin and Talansky can equal Sky on any given day this Tour provided a plane engine doesn't fall from the sky and knock Hesjedal out. He's had some bad luck recently so the engine thing is not that entirely far-fetched.

Given that all the other teams have wizened up to Darth Sky, I believe some teams will be more shrewd tactically and lay boots to the Sky Troopers when necessary.

Pretty much everyone will gang up on Sky and Froome will end up like Jaba the Hut going backwards in the last week.

I see an open pool of possibilities to go the distance as well and Cadel, Princess Contador and maybe even Hesjedal having a good go for the Yellow.

Gloome might even make the podium in third . He's a wuss when the going gets tough. Sure he could climb well, but his head is not a good as Hesjedal's. Hesjedal smacked his plenty during his mountain bike days so he's used to things not making sense. He could easily win races just seeing through his ear.

Evans is an Aussie. Let's leave it at that.

Purito might even make Gloomie cry.

Tee Jay could lay some serious pipe if Cadel falters a bit and that would leave Froomie sleeping on his stomach for a LONG LONG time.

Overall, Garmin and BMC are best bets to topple Sky as well as maybe Princess Contador alone without a lot of help. Spanish beef goes a long way.

Just my two pence worth...

 

[auscyclefan94]

50/50 on whether Michael Schaer will start today.

 

[Afrank]

50/50 on whether Michael Schaer will start today.

Did he go down somewhere? I don't recall.