Tour de France Top 15

[portugal11]

Is there anyone in this thread NOT predicting outstanding results from all their favorite riders?

I think I didn't do that bad:

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Contador
4. Aru
5. Pinot
6. Valverde
7. Yates
8. Bardet
9. Talansky
10. Barguil
11. Mollema
12. Kreuziger
13. Meintjes
14. Van den Broeck
15. Vuillermoz

1. Cannondale is foremost my favourite team.
2. My favourite GC riders apart from Cannondale are TJVG, Mollema. Wouldn't mind Porte upsetting the favourites as well.
3. I like Froome by far the most out of the "big four".

You don't like cycling

 

[BigMac]

Louis Meintjes will win the Tour de France.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

1 Quintana
2. Contador
3. Froome
4. Aru
5. Bardet
6. Martin
7. Pinot
8. Porte
9. Meintjes
10. Barguil
11. Landa
12. Yates
13. Kelderman
14. Mollema
15. Pantano

 

[movingtarget]

Is there anyone in this thread NOT predicting outstanding results from all their favorite riders?

Simon Gerrans will win the Tour.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

1 Quintana
2. Contador
3. Froome
4. Aru
5. Bardet
6. Martin
7. Pinot
8. Porte
9. Meintjes
10. Barguil
11. Landa
12. Yates
13. Kelderman
14. Mollema
15. Pantano

I don't want this outcome, but it looks highly realistic. Although Froome has to be favoured slightly over Contador, I believe that Contador will enter the race with a reasonable chance against him. We know that Froome's best is very good, but we know what that is. Quintana's potential ceiling is higher; he may have improved significantly in the last 12 months, and if so, nobody (including Contador) will be able to match him in the mountains.

 

[dacooley]

my formulaic piece of prediction

quintana
froome
contador
aru
porte
van garderen
pinot
bardet
yates
rodriguez
barguil
landa
kelderman
mollema
valverde

 

[Chomsky]

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Valverde
4. Pinot
5. Van Garden
6. Nibali
7. Bardet
8. Porte
9. Barguil
10. D. Martin
11. Mollema
12. Aru
13. Contador
14. Frank
15. Meintes
16. Pauwels
17. Van Den Broeck
18. Kelderman
19. Valls
20. Pantano

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

1 Quintana
2. Contador
3. Froome
4. Aru
5. Bardet
6. Martin
7. Pinot
8. Porte
9. Meintjes
10. Barguil
11. Landa
12. Yates
13. Kelderman
14. Mollema
15. Pantano

I don't want this outcome, but it looks highly realistic. Although Froome has to be favoured slightly over Contador, I believe that Contador will enter the race with a reasonable chance against him. We know that Froome's best is very good, but we know what that is. Quintana's potential ceiling is higher; he may have improved significantly in the last 12 months, and if so, nobody (including Contador) will be able to match him in the mountains.

+1: i think Movi will be super strong in the mountains.. +2: i hope he learned he has to be agressive and he HAS to do his race, not Valverde's.. if so, Contador might gain also...
The funny part is that I've spent some time to come up with the list......

 

[phanatic]

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Landa
4. Aru
5. Contador
6. Van Garderen
7. Pinot
8. Mollema
9. Valverde
10. Yates
11. D. Martin
12. Schleck
13. Nibali
14. Thomas
15. Pozzovivo

 

[perico]

1- Contador
2- Quintana
3- Porte
4- Landa
5- Nibali
6- Bardet
7- Dan Martin
8- Aru
9- TeeJay
10- Kreuziger
11- Valverde
12- Pinot
13- Barguil
14- Henao
15- Purito

Froome is out early after trying to stay up in a sprint and is caught next to Bouhanni, who punches him in the ribs. Landa ends up as strongest Sky rider but loses too much time in the TTs. Aru has a bad day early and ends up having to work for Nibali, who is realistically too tired to contend. Pinot loses time early and then goes all out on a stage, once again sacrificing his GC ambition. Porte puts together a full 3 weeks while TeeJay is unfortunately relegated to domestique duties, while still performing admirably in that role. Purito wins a stage and polka dot jersey. Dan Martin is the revelation of the tour as he is able to hang with the favorites in the high mountains. Meintjes gets ill and abandons. Thomas fails to take the reigns from Froome, and works for Landa after admitting that the GC in the Tour is too much. Contador's accelerations put him in yellow early as he is able to put 30 seconds into Nairo on the first MTF, while containing him until the TTs, where he builds a sizable gap. Nairo gets away on the Mt. Blanc stage with Pinot, and puts 2 minutes into Alberto, but it's not enough to dethrone the Spaniard after the TT gaps, and the work done by a rejuvenated Kreuziger and Majka, as well as Porte's BMC squad to hold the Columbian within 1:30 or so. Last mountain storage is anticlimactic as Nairo is unable to shake the Spaniard, who puts 15 seconds into him with a late attack.

If Froome survives until Arcalis, then you can toss these predictions out the window as he changes the entire dynamic of the race and will finish in the top 2. And then there's the strange case of Zubeldia, who could easily slide in there somewhere with nobody noticing.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Could give you a precise top 17, but instead here is the winner: Froome.

 

[LaFlorecita]

1- Contador
2- Quintana
3- Porte
4- Landa
5- Nibali
6- Bardet
7- Dan Martin
8- Aru
9- TeeJay
10- Kreuziger
11- Valverde
12- Pinot
13- Barguil
14- Henao
15- Purito

Froome is out early after trying to stay up in a sprint and is caught next to Bouhanni, who punches him in the ribs. Landa ends up as strongest Sky rider but loses too much time in the TTs. Aru has a bad day early and ends up having to work for Nibali, who is realistically too tired to contend. Pinot loses time early and then goes all out on a stage, once again sacrificing his GC ambition. Porte puts together a full 3 weeks while TeeJay is unfortunately relegated to domestique duties, while still performing admirably in that role. Purito wins a stage and polka dot jersey. Dan Martin is the revelation of the tour as he is able to hang with the favorites in the high mountains. Meintjes gets ill and abandons. Thomas fails to take the reigns from Froome, and works for Landa after admitting that the GC in the Tour is too much. Contador's accelerations put him in yellow early as he is able to put 30 seconds into Nairo on the first MTF, while containing him until the TTs, where he builds a sizable gap. Nairo gets away on the Mt. Blanc stage with Pinot, and puts 2 minutes into Alberto, but it's not enough to dethrone the Spaniard after the TT gaps, and the work done by a rejuvenated Kreuziger and Majka, as well as Porte's BMC squad to hold the Columbian within 1:30 or so. Last mountain storage is anticlimactic as Nairo is unable to shake the Spaniard, who puts 15 seconds into him with a late attack.

If Froome survives until Arcalis, then you can toss these predictions out the window as he changes the entire dynamic of the race and will finish in the top 2. And then there's the strange case of Zubeldia, who could easily slide in there somewhere with nobody noticing.

I'll take that. Where do I sign?

 

[Red Rick]

We should start a referendum to make that happen.

 

[Kwibus]

I don't like that as well. All it would do is (as SeriousSam says) put an asterisk behind Contadors name if he wins like that. I'd rather have him beat everyone and win it, allthough I don't think he will.

If he does it will be a great TdF though

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah it would be lame if Contador wins the tour but the annoying "can top shape contador beat top shape froome" would still not end because Froome was out of contention. I hope AC wins the tour by beating froome, but if the dawg crashes out I hope Quintana wins.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yeah it would be lame if Contador wins the tour but the annoying "can top shape contador beat top shape froome" would still not end because Froome was out of contention. I hope AC wins the tour by beating froome, but if the dawg crashes out I hope Quintana wins.

So you only want to see Contador win by beating Froome and if that isn't possible because Froome DNF'ed, you want Quintana to beat Contador?
A win is a win is a win. Of course I would prefer Alberto winning by beating the crap out of everyone, but if Froome or Quintana or both abandon and Alberto wins, that's fine, I just want to see him win. And I also realize that he is more likely to win if one or both of them abandon.

 

[Tonton]

1. Pinot
2. Bardet
3. Alaphilippe
4. Barguil
5. Gallopin
6. Vuillermoz
7. Chavanel
8. Contador
9. Froome
10. Quintana
11. Reichenbach
12. Valverde
13. Aru
14. TJVG
15. Porte

Now that would be a great Tour de France .

PS: and Contador beats Froome...for 8th place .

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah it would be lame if Contador wins the tour but the annoying "can top shape contador beat top shape froome" would still not end because Froome was out of contention. I hope AC wins the tour by beating froome, but if the dawg crashes out I hope Quintana wins.

So you only want to see Contador win by beating Froome and if that isn't possible because Froome DNF'ed, you want Quintana to beat Contador?
A win is a win is a win. Of course I would prefer Alberto winning by beating the crap out of everyone, but if Froome or Quintana or both abandon and Alberto wins, that's fine, I just want to see him win. And I also realize that he is more likely to win if one or both of them abandon.

I'm generally a fan of Quintana but I want Contador to win this race one last time to proof he can still be the best. But if the favorite abandons he can't proof it anyway and I'll rather root for the rider I usually prefer. However probably I will root for Contador anyway because normally I can't just change the rider I want to win in the middle of the race.

 

[Sartorius]

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. TJvG
6. Bardet
7. Aru
8. Porte
9. Barguil
10. Dan Martin
11. Yates
12. Mollema
13. Rolland
14. Meintjes
15. Talansky

 

[Anderis]

Re:

15. Talansky

Talansky will not start.

 

[MatParker117]

Froome
Quintana
Contador
Aru
Pinot
Bardet
TJVG
Landa
Yates
Thomas
Rolland
Meintjes
Mollema
Henao

 

[Jungle Cycle]

So far a tie ftw; 8 Froome, 8 Quintana, 5 Contador and 3 "others"....

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

However, one of the top 3 will crash out for sure. Random.org says it's number 3, so Contador is out. Then we'll probably have two more of these guys to drop out. Random.org says 15 Kelderman - which is probably very likely - and 6 Pinot.

It's likely that a few riders will lose time due to crosswinds - bye bye number 11 and 12, Rolland and Talansky - and probably two riders will blow up/get sick etc. - Random.org says that's number 2 and 13 - Quintana and Barguil.

Now we need to add 7 more. Let's ask Random.org to pick 7 random riders from the 50 most likely to win according to Bet365: Rui Costa, Schleck, Gesink, Frank, Yates, Vuillermoz and Sepulveda

Then our final top 15 is:

1. Froome
2. Aru
3. Porte
4. Nibali
5. TJVG
6. Bardet
7. Mollema
8. Martin
9. Rui Costa
10. Schleck
11. Gesink
12. Frank
13. Yates
14. Vuillermoz
15. Sepulveda

Unfortunately that scenario is quite realistic: something happens to Quintana and Contador, leaving no battle for yellow. That's how the Tour usually goes.

According to my use of random.org No. 3, 4, 5, 6 and 9 will drop out, which leaves the following top 10 for me:
1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Bardet
4. Van Garderen
5. Barguil
6. Talansky
7. Mollema
8. D. Martin
9. Henao
10. Yates

Bardet would be a national hero. This top 10 looks plausible to me, with Van Garderen and Mollema moving up to 4 and 7 by just following.

Against all odds Random.org gave me the current podium, only with 2 and 3 switched!

 

[Jungle Cycle]

well,
from the 24 total "participants" of the top15;
- "lenric" was the best spot-on guess with 4/15(Froome,Quintana,Porte,Martin) and put Talansky in 15th.!?.. Congrats!!
- the majority got 8 or 9 names out of the 15...