Tour de France - Who will finish higher (w/o Contador and Schleck)

[ferryman]

Voted for Wiggins - nobody much much stronger in mountains(besides AC and AS) and he is much stronger in TT than others.

I think you will find that when the hammer goes down this year there will be at least 3 or 4 or more on the list that are stronger than Wiggins in the mountains.

Gesink gets my vote on this poll. I really really like the look of Rabo this year.

 

[taiwan]

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past 5 years than Gesink would not be on your shortlist for a podium candidate. If past tour results is your only parameter to gauge his chances than your argument is flawed. It hasn't always been black and white with Gesink in terms of results. I wouldn't go as far as saying he's the red hot favorite, however, if you're going to put those names on your shortlist and omit Gesink than you're are letting the "hype" around him get to you and consequently cloud your judgement.

Well that was my point - it's hard to judge him objectively. My other point was that he hadn't done anything to set him apart from the other favourites, i.e. he was on the shortlist, but no more.

 

[Spine Concept]

Well that was my point - it's hard to judge him objectively. My other point was that he hadn't done anything to set him apart from the other favourites, i.e. he was on the shortlist, but no more.

He has done more than enough to merit a spot on the podium shortlist. However, you are allowed to have an opinion, even if you're probably one of the few - if not the only - poster(s) on this forum not including Gesink on their list of favorites for the podium. That says everything really.

 

[taiwan]

Well that was my point - it's hard to judge him objectively. My other point was that he hadn't done anything to set him apart from the other favourites, i.e. he was on the shortlist, but no more.

Quoted for the shorter sighted posters.

Thank you midnightfright.

 

[Midnightfright]

He has done more than enough to merit a spot on the podium shortlist. However, you are allowed to have an opinion, even if you're probably one of the few - if not the only - poster(s) on this forum not including Gesink on their list of favorites for the podium. That says everything really.

I think your missing what he's saying. He clearly said he has his him on his shortlist he just doesbt think hes done enough to seperate himself from the other ppl on that list

 

[just some guy]

I really have a feeling the first week is going to mess with some of the big boys - so their Tour is done

I´m thinking Andy, Sammy and Basso since we are not talking Andy I think that leaves Radioshack as the strongest - Horner.

But Voted Evans as think he will do better than the others in the 1st 10 - 12 stages

 

[Spine Concept]

Quoted for the shorter sighted posters.

That's my point, in my opinion if you're going to put up VDB as a favorite because he is a ''distinguished enough'' rider then Gesink should be there as well.

I think your missing what he's saying. He clearly said he has his him on his shortlist he just doesbt think hes done enough to seperate himself from the other ppl on that list

As mentioned above, that was my point, I think he did do enough to separate himself during the course of his career. This year he's just taking a different route to the tour. However, as I mentioned before, everyone is entitled to their opinion.

 

[taiwan]

Nevermind.

 

[Spine Concept]

Nevermind.

Of course. Good argument. I might have misunderstood you, however, you seem to be in the same predicament with what I am trying to get across. Calling me short-sighted won't make your point any clearer, it only attests to your class. Which is like school on Sundays at the moment.

 

[ManInFull]

Although I think that Evans seems to have bad luck, I am going to choose him. I do believe that 2 or 3 of the big names in the Tour will not make it to Paris.

 

[Midnightfright]

That's my point, in my opinion if you're going to put up VDB as a favorite because he is a ''distinguished enough'' rider then Gesink should be there as well.



As mentioned above, that was my point, I think he did do enough to separate himself during the course of his career. This year he's just taking a different route to the tour. However, as I mentioned before, everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Ahhh well cross-wires I guess. I go through fazes with with bobby G. He is really impressive but I still really want to see him do it in a 3 week tour, still not sure how he will deal with the additional pressure. He does seemed to have improved his tt a lot which will obviously help.

 

[The Hitch]

People probably think they know what my answer is but I believe a man should never let his emotions cloud his judgment.

So I do think Basso, Evans and Gesink have bigger chances of finishing on the podium than the man, the legend.

Cuddles and Ivan Grozhny could go either way. Can just be the guys losing 1 or 2 minutes on the main climbs to the podium guys, or could be challenging maybe even Al and Andrew.

Gesink I know will bring it. The question is can Samu reach a high enough peak to surpass The Condor. After the Dauphine i think probably just not. Might be close and would hate for the ttt to decide it.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No way Nibbles makes the podium, let alone wins, a race he's not entering. As for who wins in the absence of The Great One and the Little Engine That Maybe Could, I'll put my money on Wiggans. None of the others listed are really attacking climbers in the mountains and as such they can drop him, but they won't just motor away like TGO and LETMC.

And let me just add, Wiggans should absolutely CRUSH the other GT contenders in the final ITT. Save maybe Jani B and TGO.

I feel so very confident that JVDB, Samu and Gesink will ride away from wiggans in the mountains.

 

[Spine Concept]

People probably think they know what my answer is but I believe a man should never let his emotions cloud his judgment.

So I do think Basso, Evans and Gesink have bigger chances of finishing on the podium than the man, the legend.

Cuddles and Ivan Grozhny could go either way. Can just be the guys losing 1 or 2 minutes on the main climbs to the podium guys, or could be challenging maybe even Al and Andrew.

Gesink I know will bring it. The question is can Samu reach a high enough peak to surpass The Condor. After the Dauphine i think probably just not. Might be close and would hate for the ttt to decide it.

I think Samu will be ready when the time comes. Under the current circumstances I rate Samu higher than the other names you mentioned to be honest. I hope Gesink can emulate his Vuelta 09 climbing days - where Samu was awesome as well - and with his improved tt abilities make it an epic battle for that podium spot.

 

[Spine Concept]

I feel so very confident that JVDB, Samu and Gesink will ride away from wiggans in the mountains.

I completely agree, however, they must make their move earlier than, say 2km before the end like Gesink has made a habit of. I know he has it in him, and so do JVDB and Samu. If they do, Wiggins has no chance. I still have my reservations about Wiggins hanging on in the third week anyway, we'll see I guess.

 

[taiwan]

Anyone have a surprise entry to the top 5? Vande Velde/Tommy D? Velits? Cunego?

The same names are being circulated, but there are always some upsets.

 

[Publicus]

I feel so very confident that JVDB, Samu and Gesink will ride away from wiggans in the mountains.

I don't disagree, but they are all similar types of climbers--mainly diesel and as such they aren't going to get tremendous gaps on him unless he completely falters.

 

[The Sheep]

Those odds make no sense the bookies would go bankrupt

 

[Anonymous]

Those odds make no sense the bookies would go bankrupt

they are the odds to win overall.

Outside of Contador and Schleck the bookies are pretty much convinced its a no go
http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/winner

most bookies are offering 7-1 onwards for riders to win (discounting contador and schleck)

 

[Granville57]

Horner can be the best too...

Outside of Contador and Schleck the bookies are pretty much convinced its a no go
http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/winner

Wow, looking at that link I would have to put Horner much higher on the list. Certainly ahead of Frank Schleck and probably in the top five behind AC & AS. The fact that he's brimming with confidence I think will also work to his advantage. The only question is: Will the Shack work for HIM?

 

[Bazzza]

Nibali. I know AC and AS are supposed to be disregarded, but Nibali (who is not racing) has as much chance as all the rest of beating AC.

 

[Archibald]

Anyone have a surprise entry to the top 5? Vande Velde/Tommy D? Velits? Cunego?

The same names are being circulated, but there are always some upsets.

Mr Radioshack Super Leach? surely someone thinks his Suisse was a good indication*


*

 

[Anonymous]

Wow, looking at that link I would have to put Horner much higher on the list. Certainly ahead of Frank Schleck and probably in the top five behind AC & AS. The fact that he's brimming with confidence I think will also work to his advantage. The only question is: Will the Shack work for HIM?

winner without the big two odds


you can get 40-1 on Horner (20's on Levi) to only be beaten by schleck and ac.

of course, I have my theory that Contador is actually going to be super domestique for Richie Porte so if his ban gets upheld he doesnt lose his title.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Apparently there is a poll in today's l'equipe about the results in the TDF, filled out by riders and team managers themselves.

1. Contador (84%)
2. Schleck
3. Evans (lol?)
4. Gesink
5. Basso

Revelation: Kern

 

[Spine Concept]

Apparently there is a poll in today's l'equipe about the results in the TDF, filled out by riders and team managers themselves.

1. Contador (84%)
2. Schleck
3. Evans (lol?)
4. Gesink
5. Basso

Revelation: Kern

Agree on the revelation, I just hope he hasn't peaked too soon. Aside from that it is a disgrace that Samu isn't in the top 5. I do not have any confidence in Evans making the podium at the moment. Basso is an enigma in that regard as well seeing his last accident and the effect it has had on him up to this point. Gesink is looking well on course, VDB should be up there as well.