Tour de Suisse 2025 - Men's (June 15- June 22)

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Morgado said he wants to fight for the Tour in the future, but he seems to be a worse climber every year.
He is very, very strong and fast, likely to fade if he starts doing dedicated climbing kilometers.
And comments above about Jan Christen are outright crazy!! Kid is doing some very intelligent, short range explosive attacks that have yet to yield anything... for anyone, he jumps hard off the front, alone, if it were to work fine, but when it doesn't he tows nobody up, UAE loses nothing.
Joao Almeida had plenty of juice for sprint..don't know when FDJ last won a stage race?
 
Although he finished fourth today, I felt like Gregoire struggling during the attacks.

Tomorrow's climb is tough. If he doesn't lose any time tomorrow, I think he'll win the GC. But he didn't look good today.
I didn't have the impression he was struggling particularly with the attacks, but the fact he had to do a lot of effort himself without the help of any teammate probably tired him a lot and I guess that's why he wasn't able to have a better kick for the sprint in the final. The level of Madouas seems really low this year which is quite worrying for Grégoire GC ambitions, even Vauquelin seemed to have better support in the final with Costiou.
 
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If you want to keep Almeida at arm's length in the GC battle, then this is the stage where you should be trying to put more time into him. Between Grégoire, Alaphilippe and Bilbao, there are plenty of great descenders here, and considering his tactics so far maybe Christen will be tempted to join them and send his team and Portuguese cycling twitter into meltdown.
 
If you want to keep Almeida at arm's length in the GC battle, then this is the stage where you should be trying to put more time into him. Between Grégoire, Alaphilippe and Bilbao, there are plenty of great descenders here, and considering his tactics so far maybe Christen will be tempted to join them and send his team and Portuguese cycling twitter into meltdown.
That's easier said than done. They have to get to the top of the mountain alongside Almeida, or at the very least not far behind, which I think is unlikely. More likely is that Gregoire limits the damage/catches up with Almeida on the descent.
 
That's easier said than done. They have to get to the top of the mountain alongside Almeida, or at the very least not far behind, which I think is unlikely. More likely is that Gregoire limits the damage/catches up with Almeida on the descent.
The north side of Splügen is not that hard, UAE don't have the team to make things as hard as you would want to on this stage and Almeida is not an alien who can just ride away at will. The way this climb played out in the 2021 Giro further confirms it will be hard to ride away from a group that still has all the GC threats with some teammates, which is as far as Grossschartner and Christen can trim things down.
 
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The north side of Splügen is not that hard, UAE don't have the team to make things as hard as you would want to on this stage and Almeida is not an alien who can just ride away at will. The way this climb played out in the 2021 Giro further confirms it will be hard to ride away from a group that still has all the GC threats with some teammates, which is as far as Grossschartner and Christen can trim things down.
There is a much bigger gap between Almeida and Gregoire than between the favourites in the 2021 Giro.

Almeida is no alien but he is comfortably in best of the rest territory, and Gregoire has never come top ten on a mountain stage, so it isn't so much about dropping everyone as it is distancing Gregoire. It is still 8k at nearly 8%.
 
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I feel bad for all the Ineos riders that had to escort Thomas back. They lost time for no reason.
Mainly Andrew August, who unlike Thomas wasn't gapped by the gc group on stage 1. Having the guy loose 15min by ordering him to stay with Thomas when you have guys like De Plus and Hamilton (who both did a lot worse than Thomas on stage 1) can't be good for his moral.
 
There is a much bigger gap between Almeida and Gregoire than between the favourites in the 2021 Giro.

Almeida is no alien but he is comfortably in best of the rest territory, and Gregoire has never come top ten on a mountain stage, so it isn't so much about dropping everyone as it is distancing Gregoire. It is still 8k at nearly 8%.
But then again we had also never seen Grégoire go anywhere near as well on a climb the size of the one on the first stage before said stage actually happened.
 
But then again we had also never seen Grégoire go anywhere near as well on a climb the size of the one on the first stage before said stage actually happened.
I don't really think that's true, Gregoire had done very well on those types of climbs before. I agree that he hadn't done as well and that he looks stronger now than ever before, but a 3km at 9% is definitely the sort of climb you would expect a very strong Gregoire to excel in. Look at his performances at the Faun-Ardeche classic.

Today is a very different sort of challenge. In terms of races this year that provide a bit of a comparison, I think Frontignano is the closest, even if Frontignano had tougher sections (for shorter) and obviously was at the end of the stage. Gregoire lost around 90 seconds to Ayuso there (UAE had a better team). I don't think he'll lose that today, but it's more likely that Almeida attacks and Gregoire loses 30-45 seconds, which he regains in the descent, than Gregoire sticking with Almeida and dropping him on the descent. It's a day for Almeida to be aggressive and Gregoire defensive, I think.
 
I don't really think that's true, Gregoire had done very well on those types of climbs before. I agree that he hadn't done as well and that he looks stronger now than ever before, but a 3km at 9% is definitely the sort of climb you would expect a very strong Gregoire to excel in. Look at his performances at the Faun-Ardeche classic.

Today is a very different sort of challenge. In terms of races this year that provide a bit of a comparison, I think Frontignano is the closest, even if Frontignano had tougher sections (for shorter) and obviously was at the end of the stage. Gregoire lost around 90 seconds to Ayuso there (UAE had a better team). I don't think he'll lose that today, but it's more likely that Almeida attacks and Gregoire loses 30-45 seconds, which he regains in the descent, than Gregoire sticking with Almeida and dropping him on the descent. It's a day for Almeida to be aggressive and Gregoire defensive, I think.
Frontignano is 7.6k at 7.9%, the big climb in Ardèche with 20k to go is 6.3k at 7.4%, and both climbs have a very steep few kilometres in there. Not vastly different climbs. That tells me he wasn't in good form on Frontignano, and therefore that it isn't a great indicator.
 
I think all teams with a GC contender, who hadn´t been in the breakaway on stage 1 and also didn´t have a well places second tier GC contender in the breakaway of stage 1, should have a big interest in a high tempo on the Splügenpass. Beside from Almeida, I also think of Gall, Riccitello and Vlasov for example. The best scenario for them would be for a GC group of 5-10 people to reach the summit, who would then work together until the finish line to give as much time as possible to those who have fallen behind.
 
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