Tour de Suisse 2025 - Men's (June 15- June 22)

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Frontignano is 7.6k at 7.9%, the big climb in Ardèche with 20k to go is 6.3k at 7.4%, and both climbs have a very steep few kilometres in there. Not vastly different climbs. That tells me he wasn't in good form on Frontignano, and therefore that it isn't a great indicator.
Gregoire didn't keep up with the best on the big climb, made the difference/climbed with the best on the final one which is 1.5/2km at like 10.5% or whatever, so similar to the climb on Stage 1. Frontignano was two weeks later and in line with his other long climb performances so I don't think it was bad form.

Worth also saying that the big climb is essentially 2km at 10% followed by 2km at 4% followed by 2km at 8%, so doesn't translate onto Frontignano.

Again, I don't think what Gregoire did on Sunday was out of step with his performances this year; sticking with Almeida today would be.
 
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IF Joao Almeida wants to win this then he needs to attack meaningfully today and tomorrow.
Get the 'team' to rider hard on the ascent to Splügenpass and then just ride his own tempo.
It's not a stage to put a lot of time on everyone, but the longer climb as the potential to weed out competitors. The long successive climbs to Splügenpass play to his high tempo style that can leave a lot of riders behind. The downside is that the top is still far from the end of the stage and no one will want to push with him.

Tomorrow is a harder more classical rolling climb stage and would be more about waiting for the final climb to attack.
 
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IF Joao Almeida wants to win this then he needs to attack meaningfully today and tomorrow.
Get the 'team' to rider hard on the ascent to Splügenpass and then just ride his own tempo.
It's not a stage to put a lot of time on everyone, but the longer climb as the potential to weed out competitors. The long successive climbs to Splügenpass play to his high tempo style that can leave a lot of riders behind. The downside is that the top is still far from the end of the stage and no one will want to push with him.

Tomorrow is a harder more classical rolling climb stage and would be more about waiting for the final climb to attack.
Pretty sure guys like Gall, Riccitello, Onley, Van Wilder would work with him if they get into a group without the likes of Gregoire and Vauquelin. If O'Connor sticks with them, it could complicate things though.
 
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2 min now. Might not make much sense to go on with this race if he get's dropped on the flat.
I would rather think he had a mechanical or something like that and struggled to get back in this fast stage so far, as he is very bad riding for himself on a flat. He was in good enough shape yesterday to not loose time on the best climbers, so normally he should be able to stay in the bunch on a flat. Of course, this would change if he got sick or crashed today without notice.

In addition, on stage 1 he had a mechanical before the final climb. The reason the result listed ballerini in the break still hours after the stage finished could have to do something with that as well, as fortunato rode the climb mostly out of the saddle, indicating not having the right position on the new bike. So beeing up front there should say he is not in such an underwhelming condition (although he was not in giro shape)
 
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