Tour of Flanders Predictions

[Panda Claws]

Gilbert will finish 6th.

 

[will10]

Hard to imagine 3 OPQ's in the top 7, it would probably mean a big fail on their behalf, yet when considering which of the 3 doesnt deserve to be in their its difficult to come up with an answer due to Terpstra's perfomance at Dwars doors.
I agree with your placing of Pozzato though but i think people are overrating Breschel a bit.

Yet again you show you're new to the sport.

 

[Froome19]

Yet again you show you're new to the sport.

Why? I just dont think he is at the level yet where he has been previously.
If you have a sensible suggestion as to why that is not so then by all means...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gilbert will finish 6th.

And pigs have learned how to fly

 

[Irish2009]

Outside chances
Tjallingii
Degenklob
Masskant
Scheirkinckx

 

[Panda Claws]

And pigs have learned how to fly

Fortune favors the bold.

 

[will10]

Why? I just dont think he is at the level yet where he has been previously.
If you have a sensible suggestion as to why that is not so then by all means...

How does that translate to "people are overrating Breschel"?

Outside chances
Tjallingii
Degenklob
Masskant
Scheirkinckx

I think it's great that Tjallingii is the one you managed to spell correctly

 

[karlboss]

Greg Van Avermaet. That is all.

 

[learn to ride]

Gilbert said he wont be a factor ..
http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...wont-be-a-factor-in-Ronde-Van-Vlaanderen.aspx

Maybe it is smoke..

 

[Swede1]

Hard to imagine 3 OPQ's in the top 7, it would probably mean a big fail on their behalf, yet when considering which of the 3 doesnt deserve to be in their its difficult to come up with an answer due to Terpstra's perfomance at Dwars doors.
I agree with your placing of Pozzato though but i think people are overrating Breschel a bit.

Yeah it would seem stupid to have 3 in the top 7, but then not winning the race. But based on those 3 riders I can't think of other riders who are stronger. They may choose to sacrifice Terpstra/Chavanel to help chase down Cancellara or another favorite. So on second thought ill say Vanmarcke takes the place of Terpstra. Devolder should be up there too, but towards the end of the top 10.

 

[killswitch]

Langeveld to sneak away and win, now that he's free from Rabo's clutches.

 

[Froome19]

How does that translate to "people are overrating Breschel"?

Do we speak the same language?
People are over rating Breschel's chances whats so hard to understand, the reason why is because they think he is on better form than he actually is

 

[DominicDecoco]

Do we speak the same language?
People are over rating Breschel's chances whats so hard to understand, the reason why is because they think he is on better form than he actually is

Yaeh, first over Kemml in Gent-Wevelgem and third at the finish line. Yeah, what a **** form. I'm not saying he is winning. And he will most likely end up as fifth (Swede's prediction that you replied) or maybe even further down. But it definitly not because of 'overrated form'. He 'as stated by himself' felt 99% a week ago.

 

[PedalCastro]

Cancellara
Sagan
Pozatto

Don't think Chavanel will top 10

 

[Froome19]

Yaeh, first over Kemml in Gent-Wevelgem and third at the finish line. Yeah, what a **** form. I'm not saying he is winning. And he will most likely end up as fifth (Swede's prediction that you replied) or maybe even further down. But it definitly not because of 'overrated form'. He 'as stated by himself' felt 99% a week ago.

He did? Its not what i saw him say....
Anyway those races are not at all indicative of a rider's strength as they are much too easy compared to Flanders. And the main concern for Breschel is his stamina and strength.. I have no doubt his sprint is decent. Also first over the Kemmel isnt enough at all to give any conclusive evidence and I do expect Breschel to do well possibly a top10 but if Cancellara blows away the race as the predictor and i expect then I cant see him being top5.
Also according to your logic why havent people put Freire in the their predictions then?

 

[Bavarianrider]

Mark Cavendish won't finsih Top 25

 

[Froome19]

Mark Cavendish won't finish

I corrected it for you

 

[Bavarianrider]

Hitler finds out about Mur and Bosberg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oHmEjpgzNs

 

[DominicDecoco]

He did? Its not what i saw him say....
Anyway those races are not at all indicative of a rider's strength as they are much too easy compared to Flanders. And the main concern for Breschel is his stamina and strength.. I have no doubt his sprint is decent.

But since we are not the riders themselves we have to judge them on these races that are similar to Flanders. What else should we judge them on? How should we do any predictions if we aren't to conclude anything from these races? And of course they indicative of a riders strengh and current form. Stop making Flanders more than it is and denigrating these pre-classic races as 'too easy' compared to Flanders. And especially not when we can't be certain of exactly how the race evolves with the new course.

Decent sprint? Who are we comparing to? 85% of the peloton? I'd be interested in how you would describe their sprint abilities then.

Also first over the Kemmel isnt enough at all to give any conclusive evidence

It's not really a sign of weakness though is it....

 

[maltiv]

Mark Cavendish won't finsih Top 25

I corrected it for you

Uhh, Mark Cavendish won't even start.

 

[Froome19]

Uhh, Mark Cavendish won't even start.

well he cant finish if he doesnt start, can he?

 

[Froome19]

But since we are not the riders themselves we have to judge them on these races that are similar to Flanders. What else should we judge them on? How should we do any predictions if we aren't to conclude anything from these races? And of course they indicative of a riders strengh and current form. Stop making Flanders more than it is and denigrating these pre-classic races as 'too easy' compared to Flanders. And especially not when we can't be certain of exactly how the race evolves with the new course.

First of all the new route is certainly harder than the previous route and therefore though we may not be certain about how it will evolve the race will be in all likeliness harder.
Also you can make predictions on a whole range of things including previous perfomances and injuries etc... and of course the ability of the rider.
Breschel certainly has the ability to be top5 in flanders, is he on top form now to achieve that ability.. I highly doubt it, this is due to the fact that he has been struggling to truly find his top form for a while and has increasingly affirmed that he is missing something, of course he seemed to be back to a semembelance of his previous self at G-W but is that enough? I dont think so..
BTW I would really like to see your article about him being 99% because....
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/breschel-hopes-for-a-wind-of-change-in-flanders
"it is clear that the 27-year-old from Ballerup is back at a high level although it seems like he lacks the final edge to keep up with the best on the key obstacles.". This is exactly what I have been saying.
And indeed we can judge his form based on his perfomances over the weekend, but only to the extent where we can say he is in good form, to say he is in top form would be silly when you are not sure and considering the problems he has had, without those of course i would say he is easily capable of finishing 5th.
Also to say that the races are an indicator just backs up my point because they point to him being good yet these races have barely any comparisom to Flanders, Cancellara could barely make an indent in G-W though he attacked fully. These races are an indication of Breschel's strength to the point where we can say he is at the same level as the other guys in the front group, to say anything else would be silly considering the lack of evidence.
Its not about bigging up Flanders but in Flanders you have to work for your placing, it seems like that due to the cancellara(if in top10) the placings will be largely determined by strength, something which is totally not true in G-W.

Decent sprint? Who are we comparing to? 85% of the peloton? I'd be interested in how you would describe their sprint abilities then.


It's not really a sign of weakness though is it....

Decent is a slang word in Britain for good.

It's not really a sign of weakness though is it....

It isnt but I have never said that Breschel is weak ,just not strong enough to challenge for top5

 

[rghysens]

ok, some predictions:

Weather: 10°C, cloudy, very small chance of rain, light northern wind (that means headwind the last 10 km)

race development: a peloton of +/- 150 riders at the foot of the first climb of the oude kwaremont, a peloton of +/-50 riders at the foot of the second climb of the oude kwaremont, De Volder attacks at the Hoogberg, final selection on the last climb of the Kwaremont+Paterberg.

race favourites:
5*) Cancellara (more suited than Boonen to the longer climbs in the final)
Boonen (a tad behind Cancellara)
4*) Sagan
3*) De Volder, Van Marcke, Pozzato, Matti Breschel, Freire
2*) Terpstra, Chavanel, Ballan, Boasson Hagen, Hoste, Leukemans
1*) Oss, Steegmans, Van Avermaet, Goss, Gatto,

 

[DominicDecoco]

First of all the new route is certainly harder than the previous route and therefore though we may not be certain about how it will evolve the race will be in all likeliness harder. Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...ld-guarantee-better-racing.aspx#ixzz1qLTI8czs

It's only harder in the very end of the race and that's not even necessarily true. And as Fabian says: "Now we riders will make the race hard or soft"

Also you can make predictions on a whole range of things including previous perfomances and injuries etc... and of course the ability of the rider.
Breschel certainly has the ability to be top5 in flanders, is he on top form now to achieve that ability.. I highly doubt it, this is due to the fact that he has been struggling to truly find his top form for a while and has increasingly affirmed that he is missing something, of course he seemed to be back to a semembelance of his previous self at G-W but is that enough? I dont think so..
BTW I would really like to see your article about him being 99% because....

I'm at work and can't watch his video interview before Gent-Wevelgem. But watch that. I'm quite sure he said he is 99% or something similar.

"it is clear that the 27-year-old from Ballerup is back at a high level although it seems like he lacks the final edge to keep up with the best on the key obstacles.". This is exactly what I have been saying.

This has nothing to do with form. That's pure abilities compared to the top favorites - which is somethin Matti never will be. A top favorite.

And indeed we can judge his form based on his perfomances over the weekend, but only to the extent where we can say he is in good form, to say he is in top form would be silly when you are not sure and considering the problems he has had, without those of course i would say he is easily capable of finishing 5th.

Of course he's in top form when he finish third in a hard-raced Gent-Wevelgem.

Also to say that the races are an indicator just backs up my point because they point to him being good yet these races have barely any comparisom to Flanders, Cancellara could barely make an indent in G-W though he attacked fully. These races are an indication of Breschel's strength to the point where we can say he is at the same level as the other guys in the front group, to say anything else would be silly considering the lack of evidence.
Its not about bigging up Flanders but in Flanders you have to work for your placing, it seems like that due to the cancellara(if in top10) the placings will be largely determined by strength, something which is totally not true in G-W.

Didn't get a word of that.

Decent is a slang word in Britain for good.

More like 'respectable'.

It isnt but I have never said that Breschel is weak ,just not strong enough to challenge for top5

You've just stated he is capable of finishing top 5?...

 

[Froome19]

It's only harder in the very end of the race and that's not even necessarily true. And as Fabian says: "Now we riders will make the race hard or soft"

Yes and Fabian will make it as hard as possible

This has nothing to do with form. That's pure abilities compared to the top favorites - which is somethin Matti never will be. A top favorite.

No its not, have you read the article is certainly not reffering to that.

Of course he's in top form when he finish third in a hard-raced Gent-Wevelgem.

Not true

More like 'respectable'.

Thats news to me and i live in britain, whilst you live in......

You've just stated he is capable of finishing top 5?...

He is capable but only on top form