Tour of the Basque Country 2012

[classicomano]

Big test for Mollema/Gesink to see if they have any form for the Ardennes.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Kloden will redeem his Paris-Nice failure and win followed by Samu and Levi.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

You must be confused with T. Martin, right?

PS: I wonder if you'll ever say: "This course is great!", regardless of the race?

If any organisers had put together good routes for their races in 2012, I would have said that. Unfortunately nearly every race this year has had an awful parcours. The Tour de Suisse could be good (though the TT needs to be pretty long to offset the mountains), and Tirreno-Adriatico, bar the TTT, was very well put together as it has been for the last 3-4 years. Catalunya would have been a good course if the queen stage went ahead, but sadly the weather nullifying that left the rest of the stages to be fairly tame as the gaps were so small on the GC.

 

[jens_attacks]

babyface sevilla was training with henao.he said he has magical form,it will be interesting.pais vasco is always great even with a weaker route

papy horner ftw!

 

[BillytheKid]

Actually Horner put down a huge attack on the steeper section of the Arrate climb in 2010. Only Sammy Sanchez and Valerde could catch him in the end. They opened up a big gap that day. He'll attack there again given the chance if only for the benefit of Klöden.

 

[cineteq]

The Tour de Suisse could be good (though the TT needs to be pretty long to offset the mountains), and Tirreno-Adriatico, bar the TTT, was very well put together as it has been for the last 3-4 years. Catalunya would have been a good course if the queen stage went ahead, but sadly the weather nullifying that left the rest of the stages to be fairly tame as the gaps were so small on the GC.

TdS falls in the same category of Dauphiné, regardless of the parcours they're pre-Tour prep races, so that alone offset the quality of the parcours. The ones that need to have a solid parcours are: T-A, P-N, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, etc

 

[Bavarianrider]

The Time Trial is only 18km, gaps won't be big there.
It's still a climber's race. Klöden in last years shape could win, but i doubt he has this form. Should be Horner vs. Sanchez vs JRod

 

[Gloin22]

The Time Trial is only 18km, gaps won't be big there.
It's still a climber's race. Klöden in last years shape could win, but i doubt he has this form. Should be Horner vs. Sanchez vs JRod

What ?

No way JRod can in enough time on Sanchez and others not to loose it in the TT.

 

[Bavarianrider]

What ?

No way JRod can in enough time on Sanchez and others not to loose it in the TT.

JRod had a solid TT at Tirreno Adriatico. The TT is only 18km and features two small hills. So JRod should be able to limit his los.

 

[BillytheKid]

The Time Trial is only 18km, gaps won't be big there.
It's still a climber's race. Klöden in last years shape could win, but i doubt he has this form. Should be Horner vs. Sanchez vs JRod

It all depends on the Arrate climb. A big gap is possible from those three and others, but I think they would need another tough uphill finish to gain enough time.

Horner has a knee tendon problem. So he could be out if he has not recovered.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

JRod had a solid TT at Tirreno Adriatico. The TT is only 18km and features two small hills. So JRod should be able to limit his los.

J-Rod lost 2'08" over a bumpier 24km in Zalla last year, which dropped him from the overall lead to 11th on the final day (thanks to last year's parcours being about as soft a País Vasco parcours as there had ever been until this), 33" on a very hilly 22km in Orio in 2010 and 2'23" on a slightly shorter one in 2008 (though he was not the team leader then).

 

[Bavarianrider]

J-Rod lost 2'08" over a bumpier 24km in Zalla last year, which dropped him from the overall lead to 11th on the final day (thanks to last year's parcours being about as soft a País Vasco parcours as there had ever been until this), 33" on a very hilly 22km in Orio in 2010 and 2'23" on a slightly shorter one in 2008 (though he was not the team leader then).

He only lost 12 seconds to Horner on 9km at Tirreno though.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It all depends on the Arrate climb. A big gap is possible from those three and others, but I think they would need another tough uphill finish to gain enough time.

Horner has a knee tendon problem. So he could be out if he has not recovered.

Doesn't need to be uphill, they could have something like the Aia stage to Orio in 2010, or a Sollube stage to Bermeo or Gernika, or something like the Bilbao stage of the Vuelta, or a stage over Castillo del Inglés or Jaizkibel to Irún or Hondarribia (they could finish on the cobbled climb into the old town there), a stage finish like the Zumarraga one last year, go over Mandubia into Azpeitia, one of the myriad short climbs around Tolosa... so many options, and none of them taken. Instead we have Arrate, a flatter-than-usual TT, a climb at under 5%, and three stages Rojas should win (sorry, come 2nd in).

 

[Another_Dutch_Guy]

Stage 4's finish is Ibardin, on the border between Navarre and Iparralde (French Basque country). It averages less than 5% and apart from a small stretch of 8,6% about a kilometre out, it's not going to split the bunch too much, given that it's a shortish stage, and the run-in to it is rolling, with no categorised climbs for some way before it.

According to the stage profile, it seems like they have added a steep section at the end of the last ascend of the Ibardin. Probably it is thispart. Could be nice for a Purito attack

 

[BillytheKid]

He only lost 12 seconds to Horner on 9km at Tirreno though.

Horners knee tendon was happering his effort. That was a poor TT for him. That would not explain all of it.

But given this year's course, the Arrate climb is the only chance the climbers will have in what has been considered a climbers race. Perhaps the Cat 3. climb 6-7ks from the finish of Stage 2 will surprise. A technical descent would help.

 

[BillytheKid]

According to the stage profile, it seems like they have added a steep section at the end of the last ascend of the Ibardin. Probably it is thispart. Could be nice for a Purito attack[/QUOTE]

Cool! An anwswer to Libertine's prayers.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

According to the stage profile, it seems like they have added a steep section at the end of the last ascend of the Ibardin. Probably it is thispart. Could be nice for a Purito attack

Excellent. Also this would mark the first time in absolutely aeons (possibly ever?) that the Itzulia has visited Iparralde. Thus paving the way to use some of the great French-Basque climbs in the future, since Prudhomme's scared to go somewhere other than the Tourmalet...

With this I promptly upgrade my opinion of the parcours from "disgraceful" to merely "shameful".

 

[gregrowlerson]

Kloden will redeem his Paris-Nice failure and win followed by Samu and Levi.

You are even more of a Klodist than me

He don't have the form to win, surely. To finish within a minute of the leaders on stage 3 will probably be an achievement. And if he is going to ride the Giro (I will keep harping on about this possibility ) then we don't want him in winning form here anyway, as who can hold peak form throughout all of April-May?

Besides, he hasn't had the ITT form of last season so far, so I don't envisage any major gains over that 18.9kms.

This Pais Vasco is very hard to predict though as many of the contenders have question marks. Horner and Leipheimer had recent good form, but also endured crashes. Will they be healthy enough to challenge? On last seasons form Tony Martin could be in the mix on this parcours, but I don't see it happening. Frank Schleck will likely be present and correct in the mountains, but will not win because of the ITT. What is Gesink's and Van Den Broek's form like? They are good enough to be a chance. As is the underated Monfort who has good legs this season and is solid on the climbs and against the clock. Is Scarponi racing? And if so will he have much form given that he is likely to focus on the Giro?

My favourite is Sanchez. Very reliable performer.

Predictions:

1. Samu
2. Monfort
3. Leipheimer (if he is healthy we know that he will ride a strong ITT)

 

[SHAD0W93]

You are even more of a Klodist than me

He don't have the form to win, surely. To finish within a minute of the leaders on stage 3 will probably be an achievement. And if he is going to ride the Giro (I will keep harping on about this possibility ) then we don't want him in winning form here anyway, as who can hold peak form throughout all of April-May?

Besides, he hasn't had the ITT form of last season so far, so I don't envisage any major gains over that 18.9kms.

This Pais Vasco is very hard to predict though as many of the contenders have question marks. Horner and Leipheimer had recent good form, but also endured crashes. Will they be healthy enough to challenge? On last seasons form Tony Martin could be in the mix on this parcours, but I don't see it happening. Frank Schleck will likely be present and correct in the mountains, but will not win because of the ITT. What is Gesink's and Van Den Broek's form like? They are good enough to be a chance. As is the underated Monfort who has good legs this season and is solid on the climbs and against the clock. Is Scarponi racing? And if so will he have much form given that he is likely to focus on the Giro?

My favourite is Sanchez. Very reliable performer.

Predictions:

1. Samu
2. Monfort
3. Leipheimer (if he is healthy we know that he will ride a strong ITT)

Its never bad to bet on Kloden unless he is in '01-'03 form.

Sanchez is a good pick and I would be happy if he won. I would like Samu to win this for EE.

 

[greenedge]

I will go with JVDB FTW. I think he is due a win and his ITT seems to have improved a bit. Kloden and Horner shall also be threats along with Levi and Samu.

I hope Scarponi, Martin, Poels and Gesink can animate the race.

 

[therhodeo]

Are they using that climb again this year where half the peloton ends up walking?

 

[greenedge]

And if he is going to ride the Giro (I will keep harping on about this possibility ) then we don't want him in winning form here anyway, as who can hold peak form throughout all of April-May?

Scarponi could ( T-A/ M-SR he looked great ) and he ended up ( winning ) the Giro.

Also the Giro route would not suit Klodi ( much better to try go well at the TDF then do the Olympics ).

 

[karlboss]

Scarponi could ( T-A/ M-SR he looked great ) and he ended up ( winning ) the Giro.

Also the Giro route would not suit him ( much better to try go well at the TDF then do the Olympics ).

I seem to recall Scarponi being a climber and a Bl**dy good one, what on earth is offer for him at the tour or olympics, as opposed to the giro?

 

[movingtarget]

I will go with JVDB FTW. I think he is due a win and his ITT seems to have improved a bit. Kloden and Horner shall also be threats along with Levi and Samu.

I hope Scarponi, Martin, Poels and Gesink can animate the race.

It's an interesting field. Is Eurosport showing this ?

 

[gregrowlerson]

I seem to recall Scarponi being a climber and a Bl**dy good one, what on earth is offer for him at the tour or olympics, as opposed to the giro?

The previous poster was referring to Kloden who by the way, will definitely not be riding at the Olympics. He has a rather strong dislike of the German cycling authorities