Tour of the Basque Country 2012

[Ryo Hazuki]

What, so riders are judged by their worst results now?

Samu was crap in the early races last year. He was even getting gapped on descents by his domestiques.

He came 7th in the Tour tt for example, and wasnt even fighting for anything.

the tour itt was a long itt. that's where he's better at

 

[will10]

Why doesn't Nibali ride? I must have missed that

Because he's almost certainly going to get shoehorned into riding the Giro, and went off to training camp.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Because he's almost certainly going to get shoehorned into riding the Giro, and went off to training camp.

That, and he doesn't need the extra racing days with the Ardennes classics and the Giro in mind. Scarponi does.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That's where I expect him to finish, but usually in a time trial the 2nd or 3rd placed guy is already 30 seconds behind Tony Martin.

Samu also lost almost 30 seconds to Horner in the ITT in 2010, but I guess as he's looking sharper this year.

Samu also had little to fight for in the ITT in 2010 since he'd lost 2 minutes on day 1, when Valverde and Caisse forced a selection on the final climb of this:

We had two distinct groups on the road that came back together forming the selection of 24, with Valverde, Horner, Hesjedal, VDB, Intxausti, J-Rod, the Schlecks and Horner making the selection, another 20 or so with Samu and Wiggins at 1'39, and then the "bunch" of 40-45 or so at 2'40"

 

[thegrimpeur]

Assuming the top 20 on the GC finish together today, I think this will be the final GC:

1) Tony Martin

After him its pretty much a crap shot. I predict podium for Spilak and Sanchez, but almost anyone inside the top 20 can get there. Peraud and Rui Costa could maybe advance all the way to 4 and 5, JVDB and Chris Horner should be there and compete, and as a Norwegian I'm obviously excited to see whether Nordhaugs good TT in the Criterium International was a fluke or not.

Finally, I think they ALMOST got this race right, its just a little close going into the final TT. I think it is, to a certain extent, the climbers responsibility to get the most out of the climbs in a race like this, and they didn't exploit the opportunities they had. However, being a climbers race it should definitively be harder, and three "flat" stages is one to many (assuming no one blows up the race today, which doesn't look likely).

 

[LaFlorecita]

Where do you people think Rui Costa and Kiserlovski are going to end up?

 

[search]

looks like this last hill today is far more difficult than you might expect at a first glance on the profile. I see a couple of riders losing time there for just not being attentive. That won't be the Basques of course...so I'm looking forward to this

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Where do you people think Rui Costa and Kiserlovski are going to end up?

Rui will probably do well (?)
Kiserlovski... ain't a Cancellara to put it like that

 

[RHRH19861986]

Shame for Purito that he loses so many stage races due to lacking TT skills.
Hope for him that he keeps this shape to the Ardennes, and with Gilbert maybe not being at last year´s form there, him (JRod) and Valverde are up to winning everything there. (Purito has been on podium of all the three races in the past)

 

[thegrimpeur]

looks like this last hill today is far more difficult than you might expect at a first glance on the profile. I see a couple of riders losing time there for just not being attentive. That won't be the Basques of course...so I'm looking forward to this

I fully expect it to be boring, however there really are NO reason for riders like Henao, Cunego and others who can't TT not to attack today. Its not like they are gambling a top 10 in the GC... I'm really sick of the defensive racing this year in general, what happened to at least trying in the smaller stage races?

 

[search]

I fully expect it to be boring

I'm talking about that last uncatagorized hill with ~3-4k to go. Could be a great opportunity for everyone with knowledge of the course.

 

[trevim]

Where do you people think Rui Costa and Kiserlovski are going to end up?

I'm afraid Rui Costa won't go that well. His ITT in Algarve wasn't very good and he said he hasn't done much specific training to that. Perhaps a top15 or lower top10.

 

[thegrimpeur]

I'm talking about that last uncatagorized hill with ~3-4k to go. Could be a great opportunity for everyone with knowledge of the course.

True. However I think you need to force the pace on the cat. 2 if you want the stage win and some time (Rojas should have no problem following the pace on that last hill if the rest of the day is to easy).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Finally, I think they ALMOST got this race right, its just a little close going into the final TT. I think it is, to a certain extent, the climbers responsibility to get the most out of the climbs in a race like this, and they didn't exploit the opportunities they had. However, being a climbers race it should definitively be harder, and three "flat" stages is one to many (assuming no one blows up the race today, which doesn't look likely).

What opportunities didn't they exploit? The pace was set high on Arrate making large gaps harder to create, and Ibardin is little more than false flat until the last kilometre. The rest of the race was all about flat, flat and false flat. There was nothing like the Zumarraga stage last year, or the Zierbena or Orio stages in 2010, or even like the Zalla stage in 2009. Three flat stages in the Vuelta al País Vasco is a travesty.

Yes, I'm sick of the defensive stage racing too, but ultimately the UCI's focus on placings kind of forces riders' hands a bit like that, and besides maybe if the riders had been given a single worthwhile parcours in a stage race this year, they'd not ride so defensively. While people always make the argument that it's the riders that make the race, that's only half true. The riders can only make the race on the course they've been given, and if that course isn't conducive to racing, their job is harder.

 

[jsem94]

If the profile looks right, it could be like a 1km climb avging about 10%? That could do some damage.

 

[search]

True. However I think you need to force the pace on the cat. 2 if you want the stage win and some time (Rojas should have no problem following the pace on that last hill if the rest of the day is to easy).

if my calculation is correct it's ~1k with an average of ~10% (steepest part about ~14%). I'm not so sure because they are using some paths which are not available on google maps (and in general the roadbook isn't accurate enough to get more than an idea of which route they really take), but I think it will be too difficult for Rojas.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

http://vueltapaisvasco.diariovasco.com/2012/perfiles/etapa5-bera-onati.pdf

so where's that steep climb? Looks like false flat to me...

 

[jsem94]

3km from the finish. If you look at the altitudes, it does rise about 1k at an avg 10%ish.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ah, because only (/always) Belgians criticize Dutch cyclists?

He's Dutch, not Belgian.

I'm interested to see what JVDB can do in the ITT. Last month he made a very good impression, losing less than half a minute on Tony Martin in a 26 km ITT. Not too shabby.

I'm Belgian btw

Strangely enough he seems weaker uphill than last year so far. But ok, if that's the case it won't matter in the Tour, ITT is far more important this year anyway

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

3km from the finish. If you look at the altitudes, it does rise about 1k at an avg 10%ish.

Look at the profile I just posted. It's way less steep than the 8.5 percent 2nd category climb before it.

I guess you all are going by the smaller profile on the website? Better go with the larger, presumably more accurate one.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The profiles are exaggerated btw.

 

[Bavarianrider]

What opportunities didn't they exploit? The pace was set high on Arrate making large gaps harder to create, and Ibardin is little more than false flat until the last kilometre. The rest of the race was all about flat, flat and false flat. There was nothing like the Zumarraga stage last year, or the Zierbena or Orio stages in 2010, or even like the Zalla stage in 2009. Three flat stages in the Vuelta al País Vasco is a travesty.

Yes, I'm sick of the defensive stage racing too, but ultimately the UCI's focus on placings kind of forces riders' hands a bit like that, and besides maybe if the riders had been given a single worthwhile parcours in a stage race this year, they'd not ride so defensively. While people always make the argument that it's the riders that make the race, that's only half true. The riders can only make the race on the course they've been given, and if that course isn't conducive to racing, their job is harder.

Romandie is a lot more mountainous than in the last years. A long mountainn finish and a 16km TT which incldes a 400m gain mountain. So you can look forward towards this one.

 

[theyoungest]

Look at the profile I just posted. It's way less steep than the 8.5 percent 2nd category climb before it.

I guess you all are going by the smaller profile on the website? Better go with the larger, presumably more accurate one.

If I go by your beloved more accurate profile, I see a 100 m rise in about a kilometre, which is 10%. You have a different definition of "false flat" than most.

Strangely enough he seems weaker uphill than last year so far.

He does? Look at how bad he did last year in Pais Vasco. And in Catalunya he was one of the strongest climbers. To me he looks pretty good, certainly if he keeps up that TT level.

 

[FF'Wilco]

Check this:
http://vueltapaisvasco.diariovasco.com/2012/rutometros/etapa5-bera-onati.pdf
It says 125m in 4km but it may also be 3km flat and then 1km of steep climb.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Strangely enough he seems weaker uphill than last year so far. But ok, if that's the case it won't matter in the Tour, ITT is far more important this year anyway

Does he? (honest question-haven't seen any footage either).

He is never outstanding this early in the season though.

EDIT: what theyoungest said.