Transfers and Rumours 2014 > 2015

[Fight.The.Power]

Aru is not leaving. 1 more year on contract and Vino pretty much confirmed it as he signed Malacarne and Rosa "to help Aru in the gts"

Thanks the info !

Good to know

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Aru is not leaving. 1 more year on contract and Vino pretty much confirmed it as he signed Malacarne and Rosa "to help Aru in the gts"

Also you have just given me an idea for a poll. Should bide us over for the weekend. . . .

 

[auscyclefan94]

So BMC are getting rid of Morabito (which is strange imo), Kohler (which I can somewhat understand) and Lander (which is odd because he has only been at BMC for 1 year). Dennis is an excellent signing but I am surprised about the timing of the deal. Evans looks likely to go from the 'official roster' from Jan 2015 into retirement and Hushovd has already gone. Looks to be some other big signings as well which is good.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Thank goodness. BMC were desperately lacking an Anglophone TTer pretending to be a GC man but clearly not good enough on the climbs.

Bit unfair. Dennis is one of the most talented young riders going around. I see him as Australia's next gc hope in GTs

 

[luckyboy]

the Inner Ring
‏@inrng
Geoff Soupe, Steve Chainel, Dom Rollin, Stéphane Rosetto, Jonas Ahlstrand, Jimmy Turgis, Ken Vanbilsen + Michael Van Stayen to Cofidis too

 

[Bushman]

Lander has been at BMC for two years.

 

[Christian]

Oleg is such a WUM

"Sorry, actually, Froomey just called me and stop me to sign Wiggo, he and his wife against his carrier development in cycling :-(. #messSKY"

"not sure if i should keep Ignatiev either, last year i dropped him on 4km climb of Montemarcello,Tuscany. I think i need a B plan)"

Lol, you gotta hand it to the man

 

[VanBsr]

Yves Lampaert from Topsport goes to OPQS

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/opqs_signs_yves_lampaert/

 

[RedheadDane]

So BMC are getting rid of Morabito (which is strange imo), Kohler (which I can somewhat understand) and Lander (which is odd because he has only been at BMC for 1 year). Dennis is an excellent signing but I am surprised about the timing of the deal. Evans looks likely to go from the 'official roster' from Jan 2015 into retirement and Hushovd has already gone. Looks to be some other big signings as well which is good.

This is his second year with BMC.

 

[theyoungest]

Bit unfair. Dennis is one of the most talented young riders going around. I see him as Australia's next gc hope in GTs

The next GC hope, after Cameron Meyer?

He can certainly go uphill, but he's such an unnatural climber that the conversion to a real GT contender will be difficult.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Bit unfair. Dennis is one of the most talented young riders going around. I see him as Australia's next gc hope in GTs

And Americans think the same about TJVG.

Good luck to you all with that...

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

And Americans think the same about TJVG.

Good luck to you all with that...

you don't think Garderen is a decent gt prospect?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

you don't think Garderen is a decent gt prospect?

Not to win, unless that last TDF becomes looked upon as the golden age before the crash fests began.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Not to win, unless that last TDF becomes looked upon as the golden age before the crash fests began.

would think he has a decent shot at atleast a couple of podiums in the future. Except Quintana and perhaps Aru, I can't see any gc riders of the future that will significantly beat him in the mountains (depends perhaps on Bardet and Pinots developments) and his tt is good.

Very few riders can ask for more than that. Every team can't have a Quintana, and if I was DS I would be very happy if my team had Van Garederen going into a relatively tt heavy gt

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He isn't going to be the 3rd best climber in the world (and your assumption Aru will be the 2nd shows a similar lack of imagination).

If his best hope is assuming no new talents emerge in the 5-10 years it will take for Froome & Contador to retire, it's a pretty forlorn hope.

He's a perfectly good rider, but watching his GT efforts is like watching a horse try to knit a jumper.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

you don't think Garderen is a decent gt prospect?

Depends what your expectations are. Currently, I do not think Tejay van Garderen will ever win a GT. He may get a podium if the stars align correctly, but I don't think he'll ever win one. His results in time trials consistently outstrip his results in the mountains and his only mountain win outside the USA is Vallter2000 this year. Although back in 2010 he was 6th to Valdepeñas de Jaén, he has rather neglected his puncheur skills since and his better results are on long and consistent climbs; although he was 6th there once he has been anonymous in races like País Vasco (he got the placement by a good TT after being quiet in the group behind the main contenders throughout - the kind of thing that will get you a placement but will seldom get you wins). With the Vuelta tending towards shorter TTs and more short steep finishes, that isn't suited to him. The Giro's backloading and love of extreme climbing doesn't suit him either. And I feel there will always be somebody better than him at Le Tour.

I know he's still young and has scope to improve. And I know I've been wrong about these things before (I once said "Bradley Wiggins will never do better in a GT than he did in 2009", and "if Sky have any sense, Froome will not be anywhere NEAR the front in [the Vuelta 2011 time trial] so he can save energy for Wiggins in week 2 before Löfkvist takes over as main domestique at the end of the race").

But I don't see a guy who can win a Giro or Vuelta in him due to his skillset; he's best suited to the Tour, and while he's 25, Pinot and Bardet are both two years younger - Pinot's already stronger at the Tour and Bardet was just 2 seconds behind - while this was also a Tour missing its two biggest contenders. Add in that we're likely to see the likes of Urán, Quintana (18 months younger than TJ) and Aru (2 years younger than TJ), not to mention that a guy who was 6th in the Giro and won the GPM at the Tour is a year younger than TJ too. And while he's become a meme on the forum, Wilco Kelderman is younger still and finished 7th in the Giro.

And that's just the guys that are already proven; there are younger prospects still to accommodate in such fields and also remembering there's guys like Nibali, Contador and Froome to accommodate I'm not sure I can envisage a situation where Tejay van Garderen will be the strongest man at a Grand Tour, I'm afraid. He's good enough to keep getting good placements, and maybe he'll improve enough to make the podium a couple of times. But he'll need a good slice of luck and some things going wrong for a few opponents to be able to win the big one, I'm afraid.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

He isn't going to be the 3rd best climber in the world (and your assumption Aru will be the 2nd shows a similar lack of imagination).

If his best hope is assuming no new talents emerge in the 5-10 years it will take for Froome & Contador to retire, it's a pretty forlorn hope.

He's a perfectly good rider, but watching his GT efforts is like watching a horse try to knit a jumper.

Quintana - clearly better
Aru - somewhat better

Neither Pinot or Bardet showed that they were clearly better climbers this tour. Van Garderens biggest challenge will probably be bad days when the mountains comes over multiple days.

Which young riders around do you think will beat him in the gts? Yates brothers look like bright prospects but haven't proved themselves at all in gts, Talansky looks good but not by any means great. Majka, good but not great.

Not saying he will win the tour, but this ain't PCM and teams have to be realistic in their goals. Having van Garderen to lead your team will give you the possibility to fight for top positions in gts.

Evans won the tour, so why not van Garderen

 

[Netserk]

I seriously doubt he'll ever podium a GT. 5th in the Tour is around his limit.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Quintana - clearly better
Aru - somewhat better

Neither Pinot or Bardet showed that they were clearly better climbers this tour. Van Garderens biggest challenge will probably be bad days when the mountains comes over multiple days.

Which young riders around do you think will beat him in the gts? Yates brothers look like bright prospects but haven't proved themselves at all in gts, Talansky looks good but not by any means great. Majka, good but not great.

Not saying he will win the tour, but this ain't PCM and teams have to be realistic in their goals. Having van Garderen to lead your team will give you the possibility to fight for top positions in gts.

Evans won the tour, so why not van Garderen

You're talking like the umpteen better riders over the age of 29 are all going to instantly retire and no new talents will emerge. It doesn't work like that.

He's nearing his prime years and his level at the moment is 8th or 9th if no one crashes. There's no reason to believe suddenly no one will develop in the next 5 years and therefore that level of 8th or 9th will start achieving 2nd or 3rd.

 

[roundabout]

Actually the 2 bad days when he was otherwise in very good form came on a 1-mountain stage in the Vosges long before any high mounatins and on the first stage of 3 in the Pyrenees (also a 1-mountain stage essentially)

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

You're talking like the umpteen better riders over the age of 29 are all going to instantly retire and no new talents will emerge. It doesn't work like that.

He's nearing his prime years and his level at the moment is 8th or 9th if no one crashes. There's no reason to believe suddenly no one will develop in the next 5 years and therefore that level of 8th or 9th will start achieving 2nd or 3rd.

Ok, we'll see won't we

 

[HOTDOG]

Tinkov: ''Yesterday I signed Cunego'' , is it a fake?

https://twitter.com/olegtinkov

 

[SafeBet]

Tinkov: ''Yesterday I signed Cunego'' , is it a fake?

https://twitter.com/olegtinkov

I think he's signed through 2015.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Neither Pinot or Bardet showed that they were clearly better climbers this tour. Van Garderens biggest challenge will probably be bad days when the mountains comes over multiple days.

Well, Tejay is a better TT than those guys and a better descender than Pinot, so Pinot must have done SOMETHING to finish higher in the GC.

I had a look at the key stages to see where the gaps were made.

Stage 2 (Sheffield):
Tejay +2"
Bardet +2"
Pinot +16"

Stage 5 (cobbles):
all three +2'28"

Stage 8 (La Mauselaine):
Pinot +2'28"
Tejay +2'40"
Bardet +2'48"

Stage 10 (PdBF):
Pinot +15"
Bardet +22"
Tejay +22"

Stage 13 (Chamrousse):
Pinot +53"
Bardet +1'23"
Tejay +1'23"

Stage 14 (Risoul):
Pinot +50"
Bardet +50"
Tejay +54"

Stage 16 (Luchon):
Pinot +8'32"
Bardet +10'22"
Tejay +12'08"

Stage 17 (Pla d'Adet):
Pinot +1'40"
Bardet +1'40"
Tejay +1'40"

Stage 18 (Hautacam):
Pinot +1'10"
Tejay +1'12"
Bardet +1'53"

Stage 20 (TT):
Tejay +2'08"
Pinot +3'12"
Bardet +4'17"

Really, though Tejay's losses in the mountains to the two young Frenchmen weren't huge, it is worth noting that it wasn't until stage 18 that he finished ahead of either of them in a high mountain stage, when Bardet was fading. With them being two years younger and having more scope for improvement as a result, it's not a stretch to say they are stronger climbers at this point in time, and will probably be stronger climbers in the future too. Pinot beat him consistently, whereas it was more of a close battle with Bardet.

Which young riders around do you think will beat him in the gts? Yates brothers look like bright prospects but haven't proved themselves at all in gts, Talansky looks good but not by any means great. Majka, good but not great.

It only needs to have one or two per year to be enough you know, so Aru and Quintana, plus the still young enough to have plenty of gas left in the tank Nibali, Froome and Contador may well be enough to prevent Tejay winning the Tour for some time yet. Plus there are the likes of Kelderman of course.

Not saying he will win the tour, but this ain't PCM and teams have to be realistic in their goals. Having van Garderen to lead your team will give you the possibility to fight for top positions in gts.

Evans won the tour, so why not van Garderen

Evans is more of an all-rounder than van Garderen. Evans also nearly didn't win the Tour because of his own conservative riding style. Evans is more explosive than Tejay, as can be seen from his successful career as a puncheur, winning a hilly Worlds and Flèche Wallonne. Tejay is not an attacking climber, and his TT isn't so strong that he can overcome that like Indurain or 2012-vintage Wiggins, because he won't be grinding the Quintanas and Arus of the world out of his wheel with his tempo unless something drastic changes.

Tejay van Garderen is a good rider. A very good rider. Tejay van Garderen can get you a good placement in the Tour de France, and fight for the podium in a number of tough one week races like the Dauphiné, Suisse, Catalunya and others that balance long and drawn-out climbing and TT skills along the lines of GTs. He can win you a bunch of races in the USA, as the style of climbing seen in these races is typically better suited to him than, say, País Vasco or Tirreno-Adriatico. But unless he gets a big, big slice of luck or kicks on the afterburners in his development, he is not going to win you a Grand Tour.

 

[roundabout]

Without the awful day to Luchon, Van Garderen had the chance to beat Pinot on GC.

And that's in a race with 5 (6) MTF's and despite taking only a minute in the TT.