Agree with 42's assessment of Dyball and Sunderland, whereas Harper is WT level.
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Creating a sprint train for him, so Modolo is either out of EF or a new leadout?Halvorsen to EF
EF Education First signs sprinter Kristoffer Halvorsen - EF Pro Cycling
EF Education First Pro Cycling will build a sprint squad around one of cycling’s most exciting young talents in 2020: Kristoffer Halvorsen.www.efprocycling.com
Interesting read - apparently DD (soon NTT) is trying to "moneyball" their rider selection in future, with the help of NTT data analysts:
https://africasteam.com/exciting-trio-confirmed-for-team-ntt-in-game-changing-approach
2 things buy me about this.
1, what possible analysis can they do that other teams aren’t? What are they uncovering in the race result stats of a 30 year old CT pro that nobody at WT level has seen? It’s not like cycling has a hidden stat like on-base-percentage that’s being ignored. Is it?
2, DiData haven’t seemed to have a problem identifying talent in the past. It’s been what to do with that talent when you get it onto the road.
Halvorsen to EF
EF Education First signs sprinter Kristoffer Halvorsen - EF Pro Cycling
EF Education First Pro Cycling will build a sprint squad around one of cycling’s most exciting young talents in 2020: Kristoffer Halvorsen.www.efprocycling.com
2 things buy me about this.
1, what possible analysis can they do that other teams aren’t? What are they uncovering in the race result stats of a 30 year old CT pro that nobody at WT level has seen? It’s not like cycling has a hidden stat like on-base-percentage that’s being ignored. Is it?
2, DiData haven’t seemed to have a problem identifying talent in the past. It’s been what to do with that talent when you get it onto the road.
Yeah, I'm very much not convinced by this approach...if there is any 'hidden stat' in cycling, surely it's a rider's power & physiological data - allowing you to identify riders with the power to compete, but perhaps not the positioning skills or the tactical acumen or the ability to conserve energy during early stages of a race...?
You guys should watch the Moneyball movie
This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.Creating a sprint train for him, so Modolo is either out of EF or a new leadout?
Docker was a more than capable lead out for Ewan at Greenedge. I still remember him beating Sagan out of the way when he tried to cut in on him while he set up Ewan's first Vuelta stage win. McLay could probably do a decent role as well if he's retained.This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.
I don't know if Vaughters has any more interesting riders already signed but if not then I think he should really give Modolo a 1 year contract. If he can regain some of his past form after overcoming his health issues, he would be a really nice addition to their cobbled team which has done well in the last couple of years due to having several different riders able to step-up and be competitive in some of the races.
There are still some really good lead-out men without 2020 contract according to PCS but signing one would be very un-Vaughetrs-like. I have not seen any information suggesting that strenghtening their lead-out train is one of the priorities.
I believe stepping back to PCT level with an Italian team would be the best career choice for Modolo.This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.
I don't know if Vaughters has any more interesting riders already signed but if not then I think he should really give Modolo a 1 year contract. If he can regain some of his past form after overcoming his health issues, he would be a really nice addition to their cobbled team which has done well in the last couple of years due to having several different riders able to step-up and be competitive in some of the races.
There are still some really good lead-out men without 2020 contract according to PCS but signing one would be very un-Vaughetrs-like. I have not seen any information suggesting that strenghtening their lead-out train is one of the priorities.
Docker seems to have declined a bit in recent years. McLay seems to be very inconsistent so I don't know if that bodes well for turning him into a dedicated lead-out man. Both are not even confirmed at EF for 2020.Docker was a more than capable lead out for Ewan at Greenedge. I still remember him beating Sagan out of the way when he tried to cut in on him while he set up Ewan's first Vuelta stage win. McLay could probably do a decent role as well if he's retained.
I’ve seen it. I’m just uncertain how the methodology applies here.You guys should watch the Moneyball movie
I’ve seen it. I’m just uncertain how the methodology applies here.
The focus of Moneyball was that Billy Beane identified that On Base Percentage was a key performance indicator in baseball, and that it was undervalued in the player marketplace. So a player like Kevin Youkilis, who got to first a lot because he got a lot of walks, wasn’t rated by baseball scouts of the time, because he got a lot of walks.
The thing is, I’m not seeing anything in the summary of the DD analysis that says they’ve found anything as undervalued or game changing as OBP. Now, I’m sure whatever it is they think they’ve found, they’re not going to tell us in a press release about these 3 PCT riders they’ve picked up. But in a sport that is data-analyzed to the nth degree like cycling has been for over a decade now, I’m not sure what they could be reading into these guys’ stats that nobody has spotted before.
Also, my other point still stands. Billy Beane had a low budget, so he found cheap talent and made them into a playoff baseball team. DiData have been working on a low budget by WT standards, but they have had talent in their ranks, and they have not produced playoff-standard performance or results. The team’s problems extend deeper than talent identification.
“So many other sports” = Baseball.That you are unsure how they do it, does not mean they can't.
Now obviously proof is in the pudding, with the first 3 signing based on their system, but in the meantime, it seems odd that you don't believe it can be done in cycling, when it has been done in so many other sports.
“So many other sports” = Baseball.
It’s not that I don’t believe that there are stats that can be mined to better identify talent, it’s just that I question a) the stated source of their stats and b) what they can do with the talent once they’ve identified it.
If Neri Sottoli doesn't win the Coppa Italia, I wouldn't be surprised if Visconti is off to Israel Cycling Academy as well!Davide Gabburo to Androni. Not looking great for NS atm, they have lost both him and Velasco, the only one left who can offer something and get them invites to races is Visconti.
Like I mentioned earlier, Dyball's points per race days ratio is quite decent, comparable to guys like Gaudu (but in much poorer races), Stokbro's was "okay" last year and very mediocre this year, and Sunderland's was downright poor every year so far. Also, Sunderland has no wins so it can't be "their win ratio over a time period across the whole UCI calendar.." that identified him either.Their super hyper advanced data analysis tool is literally dividing points scored by the amount of race days. That's what Doug Ryder says in the article.
"We have employed a rider dashboard analysis system that takes all riders points per race days and ."
What's funny is that their signings actually do have a lot of points per race day. I wonder if they believe Dyball's 500 CQ points a season for winning races in Malaysia, Indonesia and China or Sunderland's points from his yearly top ten at the Herald Sun Tour will translate to great success in Europe.
Visconti still has a contract for 2020, but the rest of the team is looking rather bad. If they don't win the Coppa Italia they are in a really bad situation and KTM isn't exactly known for having a lot of influence, unlike Cipo for example who does what he can and is probably the main reason for all the Bardiani wildcards.If Neri Sottoli doesn't win the Coppa Italia, I wouldn't be surprised if Visconti is off to Israel Cycling Academy as well!