Teams & Riders Transfers and Rumours 2019 > 2020

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Interesting read - apparently DD (soon NTT) is trying to "moneyball" their rider selection in future, with the help of NTT data analysts:

https://africasteam.com/exciting-trio-confirmed-for-team-ntt-in-game-changing-approach
2 things buy me about this.

1, what possible analysis can they do that other teams aren’t? What are they uncovering in the race result stats of a 30 year old CT pro that nobody at WT level has seen? It’s not like cycling has a hidden stat like on-base-percentage that’s being ignored. Is it?

2, DiData haven’t seemed to have a problem identifying talent in the past. It’s been what to do with that talent when you get it onto the road.
 
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Attilio Viviani and Eddy Finé to Cofidis.

 
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2 things buy me about this.

1, what possible analysis can they do that other teams aren’t? What are they uncovering in the race result stats of a 30 year old CT pro that nobody at WT level has seen? It’s not like cycling has a hidden stat like on-base-percentage that’s being ignored. Is it?

2, DiData haven’t seemed to have a problem identifying talent in the past. It’s been what to do with that talent when you get it onto the road.
Yeah, I'm very much not convinced by this approach...if there is any 'hidden stat' in cycling, surely it's a rider's power & physiological data - allowing you to identify riders with the power to compete, but perhaps not the positioning skills or the tactical acumen or the ability to conserve energy during early stages of a race...?
 
2 things buy me about this.

1, what possible analysis can they do that other teams aren’t? What are they uncovering in the race result stats of a 30 year old CT pro that nobody at WT level has seen? It’s not like cycling has a hidden stat like on-base-percentage that’s being ignored. Is it?

2, DiData haven’t seemed to have a problem identifying talent in the past. It’s been what to do with that talent when you get it onto the road.
Yeah, I'm very much not convinced by this approach...if there is any 'hidden stat' in cycling, surely it's a rider's power & physiological data - allowing you to identify riders with the power to compete, but perhaps not the positioning skills or the tactical acumen or the ability to conserve energy during early stages of a race...?
You guys should watch the Moneyball movie ;)
 
Creating a sprint train for him, so Modolo is either out of EF or a new leadout?
This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.

I don't know if Vaughters has any more interesting riders already signed but if not then I think he should really give Modolo a 1 year contract. If he can regain some of his past form after overcoming his health issues, he would be a really nice addition to their cobbled team which has done well in the last couple of years due to having several different riders able to step-up and be competitive in some of the races.

There are still some really good lead-out men without 2020 contract according to PCS but signing one would be very un-Vaughetrs-like. I have not seen any information suggesting that strenghtening their lead-out train is one of the priorities.
 
This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.

I don't know if Vaughters has any more interesting riders already signed but if not then I think he should really give Modolo a 1 year contract. If he can regain some of his past form after overcoming his health issues, he would be a really nice addition to their cobbled team which has done well in the last couple of years due to having several different riders able to step-up and be competitive in some of the races.

There are still some really good lead-out men without 2020 contract according to PCS but signing one would be very un-Vaughetrs-like. I have not seen any information suggesting that strenghtening their lead-out train is one of the priorities.
Docker was a more than capable lead out for Ewan at Greenedge. I still remember him beating Sagan out of the way when he tried to cut in on him while he set up Ewan's first Vuelta stage win. McLay could probably do a decent role as well if he's retained.
 
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This article says he has not been retained by EF and is struggling to find interest among any teams at all.

I don't know if Vaughters has any more interesting riders already signed but if not then I think he should really give Modolo a 1 year contract. If he can regain some of his past form after overcoming his health issues, he would be a really nice addition to their cobbled team which has done well in the last couple of years due to having several different riders able to step-up and be competitive in some of the races.

There are still some really good lead-out men without 2020 contract according to PCS but signing one would be very un-Vaughetrs-like. I have not seen any information suggesting that strenghtening their lead-out train is one of the priorities.
I believe stepping back to PCT level with an Italian team would be the best career choice for Modolo.
 
Docker was a more than capable lead out for Ewan at Greenedge. I still remember him beating Sagan out of the way when he tried to cut in on him while he set up Ewan's first Vuelta stage win. McLay could probably do a decent role as well if he's retained.
Docker seems to have declined a bit in recent years. McLay seems to be very inconsistent so I don't know if that bodes well for turning him into a dedicated lead-out man. Both are not even confirmed at EF for 2020.
Also there's Cort but he reportedly doesn't like the infight among sprinters according to some posts in his thread on this forum and he actually didn't have any good sprints recently. Bissegger seems to have a skillset to lead-out but he won't join the team until August and even then he will have lacked experience in fighting for position in a pro peloton. I'm sure Vanmarcke, Clarke and Bettiol all can do SOME lead-out but I haven't seen them actually helping Modolo or McLay much in recent years. I only remember Clarke leading-out Van Asbroeck in one of the Vuelta stages in 2017. Also Scully did some OK lead-outs on occasion IIRC. But overall, Halvorsen should not be counting on great support unless something changes.
 
Docker seems to be a bit less consistent in the classics, but far more reliable as a domestique in stage races, especially GTs. I don't think extending him would be a waste at all, EF just needs the type of rider he is best at supporting.
 
BTW, for those that don't know, Stokbro who signed with DD (NTT), is a similar rider type to Valgren.

A little worse on climbs, but a little faster on the line and in a TT.

He should do well both in cobbled classics and as part of a lead out train (though that is less of a concern on that team ;) ).
 
You guys should watch the Moneyball movie ;)
I’ve seen it. I’m just uncertain how the methodology applies here.

The focus of Moneyball was that Billy Beane identified that On Base Percentage was a key performance indicator in baseball, and that it was undervalued in the player marketplace. So a player like Kevin Youkilis, who got to first a lot because he got a lot of walks, wasn’t rated by baseball scouts of the time, because he got a lot of walks.

The thing is, I’m not seeing anything in the summary of the DD analysis that says they’ve found anything as undervalued or game changing as OBP. Now, I’m sure whatever it is they think they’ve found, they’re not going to tell us in a press release about these 3 PCT riders they’ve picked up. But in a sport that is data-analyzed to the nth degree like cycling has been for over a decade now, I’m not sure what they could be reading into these guys’ stats that nobody has spotted before.

Also, my other point still stands. Billy Beane had a low budget, so he found cheap talent and made them into a playoff baseball team. DiData have been working on a low budget by WT standards, but they have had talent in their ranks, and they have not produced playoff-standard performance or results. The team’s problems extend deeper than talent identification.
 
I’ve seen it. I’m just uncertain how the methodology applies here.

The focus of Moneyball was that Billy Beane identified that On Base Percentage was a key performance indicator in baseball, and that it was undervalued in the player marketplace. So a player like Kevin Youkilis, who got to first a lot because he got a lot of walks, wasn’t rated by baseball scouts of the time, because he got a lot of walks.

The thing is, I’m not seeing anything in the summary of the DD analysis that says they’ve found anything as undervalued or game changing as OBP. Now, I’m sure whatever it is they think they’ve found, they’re not going to tell us in a press release about these 3 PCT riders they’ve picked up. But in a sport that is data-analyzed to the nth degree like cycling has been for over a decade now, I’m not sure what they could be reading into these guys’ stats that nobody has spotted before.

Also, my other point still stands. Billy Beane had a low budget, so he found cheap talent and made them into a playoff baseball team. DiData have been working on a low budget by WT standards, but they have had talent in their ranks, and they have not produced playoff-standard performance or results. The team’s problems extend deeper than talent identification.
That you are unsure how they do it, does not mean they can't.

Now obviously proof is in the pudding, with the first 3 signing based on their system, but in the meantime, it seems odd that you don't believe it can be done in cycling, when it has been done in so many other sports.
 
That you are unsure how they do it, does not mean they can't.

Now obviously proof is in the pudding, with the first 3 signing based on their system, but in the meantime, it seems odd that you don't believe it can be done in cycling, when it has been done in so many other sports.
“So many other sports” = Baseball.

It’s not that I don’t believe that there are stats that can be mined to better identify talent, it’s just that I question a) the stated source of their stats and b) what they can do with the talent once they’ve identified it.
 
Their super hyper advanced data analysis tool is literally dividing points scored by the amount of race days. That's what Doug Ryder says in the article.
"We have employed a rider dashboard analysis system that takes all riders points per race days and their win ratio over a time period across the whole UCI calendar..."

Just a bunch of PR crap, and if they actually sign riders based off of it, it's no wonder they're the worst team in the WT.

What's funny is that their signings actually do have a lot of points per race day. I wonder if they believe Dyball's 500 CQ points a season for winning races in Malaysia, Indonesia and China or Sunderland's points from his yearly top ten at the Herald Sun Tour will translate to great success in Europe.
 
Their super hyper advanced data analysis tool is literally dividing points scored by the amount of race days. That's what Doug Ryder says in the article.
"We have employed a rider dashboard analysis system that takes all riders points per race days and ."

What's funny is that their signings actually do have a lot of points per race day. I wonder if they believe Dyball's 500 CQ points a season for winning races in Malaysia, Indonesia and China or Sunderland's points from his yearly top ten at the Herald Sun Tour will translate to great success in Europe.
Like I mentioned earlier, Dyball's points per race days ratio is quite decent, comparable to guys like Gaudu (but in much poorer races), Stokbro's was "okay" last year and very mediocre this year, and Sunderland's was downright poor every year so far. Also, Sunderland has no wins so it can't be "their win ratio over a time period across the whole UCI calendar.." that identified him either.
 
If Neri Sottoli doesn't win the Coppa Italia, I wouldn't be surprised if Visconti is off to Israel Cycling Academy as well!
Visconti still has a contract for 2020, but the rest of the team is looking rather bad. If they don't win the Coppa Italia they are in a really bad situation and KTM isn't exactly known for having a lot of influence, unlike Cipo for example who does what he can and is probably the main reason for all the Bardiani wildcards.
 
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