TT loss: Nibali against Wiggins Giro 2013

[ebandit]

passion

oh boy. seemingly 130 guys who voted for Nibs in the main poll thread gonna vote 1-2min

i did! i expect / hope to see better time trialing from nibs and a lack of focus

from wiggo

Mark L

 

[SafeBet]

Between 1 and 2 minutes.

I say it again, you guys continue to misread Nibali, I guess him being sicilian it's your excuse.

Excuse for what? I'm a big fan of him, just trying to be realistic.

 

[Pippo_San]

I want to be hopeful for Nibs and say between 2 and 3 mins.

More realistically it will be between 3 and 4 mins.

 

[cineteq]

Excuse for what? I'm a big fan of him, just trying to be realistic.

If you were realistic, and acknowledge what he's done this year, you'd agree with me. Instead you prefer to underrate him and play LaFleur victim's card.

 

[SafeBet]

If you were realistic, and acknowledge what he's done this year, you'd agree with me. Instead you prefer to underrate him and play LaFleur victim's card.

He's been great this year and I've stressed his TT improvements very early in the season. But we're talking about a 55kms time trial here. He hasn't done anything remotely similar to this since last July, there's no way you can be sure he'll be close to Wiggo.

 

[whittashau]

I'm a big Nibali fan too and I'm skeptical about him getting within two minutes on the long time trial, but I would be skeptical about most riders getting within two minutes of Super Wiggo in a 55k time-trial. Especially considering Sky has looked near unbeatable in races they properly target.

 

[cineteq]

He's been great this year and I've stressed his TT improvements very early in the season. But we're talking about a 55kms time trial here. He hasn't done anything remotely similar to this since last July, there's no way you can be sure he'll be close to Wiggo.

The other side of the coin is Wiggins, will he perform like last July? See what I mean jelly bean?

 

[wwabbit]

The other side of the coin is Wiggins, will he perform like last July? See what I mean jelly bean?

I'd take you up on an avatar bet if I'm not already tied to another Giro ITT avatar bet. You should take it up with Safebet though, although I suspect he has a bet that matches his name

 

[whittashau]

The other side of the coin is Wiggins, will he perform like last July? See what I mean jelly bean?

There isn't another side of the coin here. Wiggins has shown that he can kill most everyone on a long time-trial and until Nibali starts finishing top-3 in every time-trial he enters there is no reason to believe he'll finish with a couple of minutes of Wiggins over 55km. We can hope Wiggins is distracted by the Tour or that Specialized and magically made Nibbles 1 second a KM faster than last year, but there is nothing to suggest either will happen at this point in time.

 

[cineteq]

There isn't another side of the coin here. Wiggins has shown that he can kill most everyone on a long time-trial and until Nibali starts finishing top-3 in every time-trial he enters there is no reason to believe he'll finish with a couple of minutes of Wiggins over 55km. We can hope Wiggins is distracted by the Tour or that Specialized and magically made Nibbles 1 second a KM faster than last year, but there is nothing to suggest either will happen at this point in time.

That was last year. So far he hasn't shown it, but it doesn't mean he can be ahead of Nibali by 1 sec.

I'd take you up on an avatar bet if I'm not already tied to another Giro ITT avatar bet. You should take it up with Safebet though, although I suspect he has a bet that matches his name

What's exactly the bet?

 

[serfla]

Would be very interesting if Wiggins is right behind Nibali at the start of the first itt.
It won't surprise me if Wiggo and Sky try to engineer that order in preceding stages.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

3' in the TT
Under 1' in the MTT
10" gain for Astana in the TTT
1' for Nibali time bonifications
2'50" or less to gain back

 

[airstream]

3' in the TT
Under 1' in the MTT
10" gain for Astana in the TTT
1' for Nibali time bonifications
2'50" or less to gain back

I wonder how much Purito gained on bonuses last year if Nibali is gonna gain more.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I wonder how much Purito gained on bonuses last year if Nibali is gonna gain more.

there were no bonus secs on MTFs last year.

 

[airstream]

there were no bonus secs on MTFs last year.

OK, then how much he gained in the Vuelta... Damn, I suppose Nibali won't be even the best climber. What 1 min??

 

[Hugo Koblet]

20 secs in the TTT
3 mins in the ITT
30 sec in the MTT

 

[Eshnar]

There will be small time bonuses on the intermediate sprints too... some of them are placed in such a way that a gc guy may actually take them. Wonder if someone will bother.

 

[Bavarianrider]

IF Wiggins shows up in last years Tour TT shape he'll gain easily 5 minutes.

30 seconds in the Team TT
3:20 in the 55km TT
1:10 in the Montain TT

 

[Bavarianrider]

Any ideas on what the winning time will be?

Col d'Eze was a > 19-minute effort, at less than half the altitude gain and length...

Winning Time should be somwhere between 43-45 minutes.

 

[iZnoGouD]

Wiggins has new TT bike with 15% less drag, i expect him to gain 5 minutes on Nibali on the long TT

 

[Catwhoorg]

Wiggins has new TT bike with 15% less drag, i expect him to gain 5 minutes on Nibali on the long TT

How much drag is caused by the bike versus the rider (assuming a good TT position) ?

At the end of the day 15% less drag from the bike probably isn't getting more than a few seconds.

 

[contessador]

Astana to absolute smoke the TTT! And, Nibs is in the best frame of mind and shape ever therefore, he only loses close to a minute in the long ITT and easily makes up time with bonifications.

Nibali FTW

 

[cineteq]

Astana to absolute smoke the TTT! And, Nibs is in the best frame of mind and shape ever therefore, he only loses close to a minute in the long ITT and easily makes up time with bonifications.

Nibali FTW

Absolutely! Nothing can stop him!

 

[SeriousSam]

We don't yet know whether Wiggins has lost a few more kg and thus gained even more power in flat ITTs. >4 min

 

[Gubby Allen]

The TTT: 6-8 seconds. (Don't think Sky will win this and no more than 35 secs from first to last)
The long TT: 1 min 25.
The uphill TT: 40 seconds.

About 2:15-2:20.