UCI Prediction Game

[nvpacchi]

Is there a deadline for when teams must be submitted? I wanna play, but will need a some time before I make my picks

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Maybe you should make a spreadsheet in Google docs or something to help people making their teams. Makes it a lot easier then doing it from the ranking site. And the easier it is, the more people might take part.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Just had a quick look at what would have been possible if this had been up last year. With enormous foresight, one could have selected: Rodríguez ("price" of 147, based on 2009 UCI ranking points), Gilbert (295), LLSánchez (211), Evans (333), and Nibali (135).

That would have given 5 of the top 6 in the rankings this year's rankings, and a game score of 2171.

The total cost of those 5 would have been 1121: those 79 points in the bank could have bought insurance in the form of Hesjedal (8th in the rankings) or Vinokourov(11th), just in case.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Seven entries in so far: competition closes on Sunday night, so those entering via work computers had better get thinking...

 

[Roland Rat]

How much do riders coming back from drug bans cost? 0 or the price of their last full season? If 0, I'll have 9 dopers and Gilbert please.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

just pick Mollema, Boom, Gesink, Kreder, Kruijswijck and T.Bos and you'd own next year

 

[ingsve]

Seven entries in so far: competition closes on Sunday night, so those entering via work computers had better get thinking...

If you don't get enough entries you could just extend the entry period, it's not like there's any rush.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Anyone else want in?

If you are interested, but not able to get your entry in today, I can extend (but only if you ask...)

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

im in.

I dont think thats the best idea... You have no control over weather the riders you pick will dope or not. If you pick a doper you should just lose all the points that the individual rider has gained.

disagree.
Foresight or general perception of a rider is apart of the game.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

OK: 11 people entered, and Andy Schleck and Brad Wiggins are the most popular selections, followed by Uran, Haussler and Di Luca.

Full details of who has been selected available on Google Docs here

Good luck to all entrants

(later note: I haven't used Google docs before: can someone confirm a) that everyone can see it, and b) that not anyone can edit it. Thanks)

 

[Moondance]

So that we can dicuss the competition over here maybe, I'll post my team here:

-Andy Schleck
-Richie Porte
-Jakob Fuglsang
-Peter Sagan
-Bauke Mollema
-Alexander Kolobnev
-Tejay Van Garderen
-Filippo Pozzato
-Tiago Machado
-Lars Boom
-Ruben Plaza
-Rigoberto Uran
-Bradley Wiggins
-Matti Breschel
-Giovanni Visconti

Surprised Visconti and Porte weren't more popular. Only five picks (two of those are mine) between them...

 

[nobilis]

Surprised Visconti and Porte weren't more popular. Only five picks (two of those are mine) between them...

Maybe because Visconti will score points mainly in the Europe Tour since he's with the Farnese Vini squad.

 

[Moondance]

Maybe because Visconti will score points mainly in the Europe Tour since he's with the Farnese Vini squad.

...

I am under the impression that Visconti will be joining the new Lampre-ISD team that has been created. If he isn't, I've obviously made a bit of an error in choosing him.

 

[nobilis]

...

I am under the impression that Visconti will be joining the new Lampre-ISD team that has been created. If he isn't, I've obviously made a bit of an error in choosing him.

I think I read it somewhere, that he will stay with his current management. 5 riders (mostly ukranian) will make the swap with the sponsor ISD to Lampre. But I can be mistaken.

 

[ingsve]

Surprised Visconti and Porte weren't more popular. Only five picks (two of those are mine) between them...

I also think Porte is overpriced. The world ranking favors winners over decent placers and I think Porte is the type of rider that does a good TT and then defends in the mountains and that usually spells 5-10 rather than wins.

 

[Moondance]

I also think Porte is overpriced. The world ranking favors winners over decent placers and I think Porte is the type of rider that does a good TT and then defends in the mountains and that usually spells 5-10 rather than wins.

Hmmm... He was up there in San Sebastian, which was ridden really hard this year. And yes, he did lose some very sizable chunks of time on the hardest Giro stages, bear in mind that it was his first ever GT, or any race longer than a week, I guess. He can also still improve for next year...

And the main reason why I picked him is that he'll very likely be the designated man for a lot of major races for Saxo next year. Since Bertie seems likely to leave us.

 

[ingsve]

Hmmm... He was up there in San Sebastian, which was ridden really hard this year. And yes, he did lose some very sizable chunks of time on the hardest Giro stages, bear in mind that it was his first ever GT, or any race longer than a week, I guess. He can also still improve for next year...

And the main reason why I picked him is that he'll very likely be the designated man for a lot of major races for Saxo next year. Since Bertie seems likely to leave us.

Ya, possibly. On the other hand it's not uncommon for riders that have a great breakthrough year to have a repeat or improvement the following year so that would add another risk factor in choosing him.

 

[The Hitch]

So that we can dicuss the competition over here maybe, I'll post my team here:

-Andy Schleck
-Richie Porte
-Jakob Fuglsang
-Peter Sagan
-Bauke Mollema
-Alexander Kolobnev
-Tejay Van Garderen
-Filippo Pozzato
-Tiago Machado
-Lars Boom
-Ruben Plaza
-Rigoberto Uran
-Bradley Wiggins
-Matti Breschel
-Giovanni Visconti

Surprised Visconti and Porte weren't more popular. Only five picks (two of those are mine) between them...

I picked Visconti but Porte cost 133 or some such and i think for 1200 i can find 5 riders who will peform better than that. So since only 5 count it would be a waste of a 133 points in my eyes.

Surprised more of you didnt go into the doping gold mine. Di luca, ricco and Sella. ALL FREE As was Visconti and Mathews- you never know, could have some super season.

Can people still enter now that they can see who everyone else picked?

 

[Ewbles]

I only tapped the post-ban goldmine once. For some reason I feel forgiving towards Di Luca, but not at all towrads Ricco.

Anyway, I chose my team primarily around the obvious idea that with Contador possibly missing next season the other GT contenders had the possibility of significantly increasing their points haul. Beyond that I picked riders who were talking a good fight, appeared to be on the cusp of moving up to the next level, or simply looked like they'd bank a lot of points regardless. Essentially, I started out looking for riders who'd score much more than they cost, and finished up picking riders who'd cost a lot but looked like bankers regardless. Oh, and some padding based on names I always like to hear.


Roman Kreuziger 196
Danilo Di Luca 0
Adam Blyth 1
Tejay Van Garderen 76
Ivan Basso 206
Andy Schleck 258
Philip Gilbert 437
Thomas Lovkvist 10
Heinrich Haussler 6
Andrey Kasheckin 6
Maurizio Bruseghin 2
Egoi Martinez 1

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Mine, along with Hitch's, was the Rock Racing of the selections, as I took 6 free riders: I think if I were to do it again I would limit the squads in number rather more. Interesting range of predictions though. I was surprised to see so many people go for Gilbert: I thought he would have been priced out of most people's consideration, but I guess the thinking was that if he is good for 300 points +, then he is worth a considerable outlay of point.

Andy Schleck obviously benefitted from the Contador story being concurrent with the selections: If the RFEC find some way out for AC, there'll be 7 people wishing they had picked otherwise. Brailsford will be pleased that so many of us think that Wigans can't underwhelm again as much as he did this year.

 

[Ewbles]

I haven't played anything like this since the 90s when Cycling Weekly used to do a fantasy tour game.

I had to keep reminding myself that this wasn't necessarily about building a rounded team or getting the best looking squad for your budget as much as it was about making sure your five best scoring riders bring in a lot of points. At times I had to wrench myself away from assembling squads that would win best value for money or most improved rider awards whilst still not necessarily scoooping the big points.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

OK: the entries are up (Henry O has been asked to drop one entry, one resident of a Scottish Island got mixed up by the instructions, and has been invited to re-submit)

Here are your suggestions: let me know asap if I've made any mistakes.

Good luck. First interim scores after the TDU.

 

[The Hitch]

Considering only top 5 count, the wisest tactic was imo to go big on 4 riders, then choose Ricco for free as a 5th.

Unfortunately, i didnt spend anywhere near my full amount. Will cost me. But top 3 should be realistic goal.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

One event down, and although 19 riders (I think) will show on the UCI scoreboard tomorrow afternoon, only 5 of them had been picked by any participant here.

3 of the top 5 scorers (Meyer, Swift and Ten Dam) had not been picked by anybody, so the top three after the first event are:
1) Jaylew (139 pts courtesy of Goss and Ventoso)
2) Taiwan (116 pts from Matthews and Ventoso)
3) Ingsve (93 pts, all from Goss)

Hitch, Nobilis, Henry Olonga and Schweinika have a few potentially useful points in the bank, while 11 entrants (including yours truly) are still to get off the mark.

The scoresheet thus far

Perhaps I should have waited for the official UCI scores to be published tomorrow, but with only 6 stages and one top ten to add up, I would like to hope my maths were up to it

 

[jaylew]

I figured out the problem. You have our names in the wrong columns because there are two columns showing the riders values instead of one.