USADA has really good evidence of a conspiracy to dope. And they'll be able to prove the conspiracy.
But conspiracy to dope is not, itself, a violation that is alleged. The letter alleges acts that were actually done (use, possess, traffic, administer, attempt to administer, assist, encourage, aid, abet, cover-up, complicity, and aggravating factors . . .), but it is not seeking to sanction the dopers because of a conspiracy. Before you flame me, read the rule violations alleged against Armstrong on page 11.
USADA is seeking to bring the old Postie stuff in under two theories (page 14).
The first theory is that the old Postie and Disco doping is evidence of the doping that happened within the most recent 8 years. (Page 14). Under this theory, Lance's results of more than 8 years ago are not at risk. But this also means that the show is going to be really good (and really expensive for Lance to defend, if he chooses to do so). The ongoing conspiracy evidence is used to prove the doping within the 8 year limitation period. Still, that puts 2 TdF wins in grave jeopardy.
The other theory is a bold attempt to use the Hellebuyck decision to hold the dopers accountable for the ongoing cover-up. Hellebuyck lied at an antidoping hearing and Armstrong did not, so (for at least that reason) the Hellebucyk case is not a perfect fit for this case. USADA is arguing that Armstrong "waived" the limitation period by "false statements, fraudulent concealment, and other wrongful conduct." USADA is keeping its cards very close to the chest on this issue. To me, it seems like this issue is the one hot issue of the case and nobody can say for sure what the outcome on this issue will be. If USADA wins on this, then Armstrong loses all results. On all the other issues, Armstrong gets slaughtered.
Lance appears to be doomed with regards to the ultimate finding of violations. The only real question is whether or not the first five cases were brought within the limitation period.
Is Lance going to spend millions to salvage five Tour wins, when, no matter what, he is likely to lose his reputation and two Tour wins? That's the ten million dollar question. Lance may now be much more focused on trying to protect the pot of gold he already has than about trying to get more money.
I also reckon that the floodgates are now wide open. The media is not going to be afraid of a Lance Armstrong lawsuit any more. I expect much more critical coverage.
This will be so fun to watch! I fully expect intimidation from Armstrong and his coconspirators. I hope it backfires! Extortion is a serious crime!
And Johan is out of cycling! Amen to that!