Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Juat realized that there's a distinct possibility he might end up with three monuments this year.

Do we already know something about the Lombardia route? Will they alternate back to Bergamo this year and, if so, will it be the finish that Chaves won on? I'd imagine he would be favourite there (with the Como finish he'd be anyway...)

I haven't heard what Lombardia's route is this year.

Also we all know Valverde is the favorite for LBL.

I highly doubt that an Italian race organizer will change a route on which an Italian rider won it two times recently. As for LBL, sure Valverde is the favorite but he will have to ride for the first time against a Nibali who actually targets the race and who will be supported by a strong team this time. Add some rain, an early attack by the likes of Gilbert, Bardet or Wellens and Valverde will have his hands full.

Valverde will again have a strong team with him. In case you've missed it he's again won just about everything he's entered and he's not a peak. His first real goal of the season again is the Ardennes. It's not like there aren't other riders who target the Ardennes, they just can't always do much with him if the weather is good. Also in case you missed it Gilbert is targeting Paris-Roubiax this year, meaning it's unlikely he'll be doing much more than riding for Alaphilippe at Fleche Wallone and LBL. Plus the LBL route this year is is the same as last year and 2015 which Valverde won both of. Also those guys will be marked and this time for the first time maybe in years Valverde should have some real help with both Landa and Soler who should also be able to cover attacks.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Juat realized that there's a distinct possibility he might end up with three monuments this year.

And WC

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Juat realized that there's a distinct possibility he might end up with three monuments this year.

Do we already know something about the Lombardia route? Will they alternate back to Bergamo this year and, if so, will it be the finish that Chaves won on? I'd imagine he would be favourite there (with the Como finish he'd be anyway...)

I haven't heard what Lombardia's route is this year.

Also we all know Valverde is the favorite for LBL.

I highly doubt that an Italian race organizer will change a route on which an Italian rider won it two times recently. As for LBL, sure Valverde is the favorite but he will have to ride for the first time against a Nibali who actually targets the race and who will be supported by a strong team this time. Add some rain, an early attack by the likes of Gilbert, Bardet or Wellens and Valverde will have his hands full.

Valverde will again have a strong team with him. In case you've missed it he's again won just about everything he's entered and he's not a peak. His first real goal of the season again is the Ardennes. It's not like there aren't other riders who target the Ardennes, they just can't always do much with him if the weather is good. Also in case you missed it Gilbert is targeting Paris-Roubiax this year, meaning it's unlikely he'll be doing much more than riding for Alaphilippe at Fleche Wallone and LBL. Plus the LBL route this year is is the same as last year and 2015 which Valverde won both of. Also those guys will be marked and this time for the first time maybe in years Valverde should have some real help with both Landa and Soler who should also be able to cover attacks.

I haven't missed a thing, maybe you missed what I just said. That Valverde is the favorite but that Nibali has a chance for the first time since 2012 and that they didn't race against each other in LBL for real until this year. I don't think that this assumption is wrong.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

BTW why are you guys convinced he will ride Pais Vasco? It's been years since the last time he did this race and I don't really see a point in riding it.

Why not?

It's been years since he peaked for the Ardennes week in the first place.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Juat realized that there's a distinct possibility he might end up with three monuments this year.

Do we already know something about the Lombardia route? Will they alternate back to Bergamo this year and, if so, will it be the finish that Chaves won on? I'd imagine he would be favourite there (with the Como finish he'd be anyway...)

I haven't heard what Lombardia's route is this year.

Also we all know Valverde is the favorite for LBL.

I highly doubt that an Italian race organizer will change a route on which an Italian rider won it two times recently. As for LBL, sure Valverde is the favorite but he will have to ride for the first time against a Nibali who actually targets the race and who will be supported by a strong team this time. Add some rain, an early attack by the likes of Gilbert, Bardet or Wellens and Valverde will have his hands full.

Valverde will again have a strong team with him. In case you've missed it he's again won just about everything he's entered and he's not a peak. His first real goal of the season again is the Ardennes. It's not like there aren't other riders who target the Ardennes, they just can't always do much with him if the weather is good. Also in case you missed it Gilbert is targeting Paris-Roubiax this year, meaning it's unlikely he'll be doing much more than riding for Alaphilippe at Fleche Wallone and LBL. Plus the LBL route this year is is the same as last year and 2015 which Valverde won both of. Also those guys will be marked and this time for the first time maybe in years Valverde should have some real help with both Landa and Soler who should also be able to cover attacks.

I haven't missed a thing, maybe you missed what I just said. That Valverde is the favorite but that Nibali has a chance for the first time since 2012 and that they didn't race against each other in LBL for real until this year. I don't think that this assumption is wrong.[/quote]

If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

[quote="
If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

I think we can be pretty sure Nibali isn't peaking rigth now. In that case he would have been up there in Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

[quote="
If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

I think we can be pretty sure Nibali isn't peaking rigth now. In that case he would have been up there in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Peaking for one day works very differently than for a week or GT I think. Tirreno was the intensive work required to be good this weekend for a very short amount of time. Now he'll decompress. Liege is in 5 weeks

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

[quote="
If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

I think we can be pretty sure Nibali isn't peaking rigth now. In that case he would have been up there in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Not with the way the TTT was. That then turned into a training race for a large number of riders.

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

[quote="
If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

I think we can be pretty sure Nibali isn't peaking rigth now. In that case he would have been up there in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Peaking for one day works very differently than for a week or GT I think. Tirreno was the intensive work required to be good this weekend for a very short amount of time. Now he'll decompress. Liege is in 5 weeks

Dunno, I thought he was very surprised to win today in expectation to help Colbrelli and it "just fell into place". He seemed to be more on a gradual build up, as we've seen him do it so often (to GTs). But I could be wrong...

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

[quote="
If he's peaking right now he won't be at peak for the Ardennes. He's also much more inconsistent and can't hold a peak that long. In truth we have no idea what we'll get from Nibali at Liege regardless of rather he's peaking or not.
As for the 2012 Liege we have no idea what would have happened had Valverde not had a mechanical issue.

I think we can be pretty sure Nibali isn't peaking rigth now. In that case he would have been up there in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Peaking for one day works very differently than for a week or GT I think. Tirreno was the intensive work required to be good this weekend for a very short amount of time. Now he'll decompress. Liege is in 5 weeks

While racing Tour of Basque Country and Flanders. While Valverde races Catalonia, possibly Flanders (still nothing being said one way or other) and possibly GP Miguel Indurain which he'll most likely rider for one of his teams if he's racing that one. Then be off until the Ardennes. Which Valverde will be racing all 3 while Nibali and the other GC riders will ONLY race Liege.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

Most of the GC riders who race Liege don't go to Fleche Wallone or Amstel. The guys typically in the mix for Amstel specifically besides Valverde are classics riders. Dan Martin and Alaphilippe are the only two that are really contenders that race Fleche Wallone as well as Liege. Nibali, Bardet, et al show up just for Liege.

 

[Eli]

OMFG!!! I just got home an hour ago and watched the final 40KM of MSR! What a cycling God our Nibs has turned into! 4 GTs, 3 Monuments.

Anyone you continues to underestimate Nibali is sadly mistaken. By the time he retires he will be a Legend!

I think he's already a legend. One of the handful of very best Italian riders after Coppi and Bartali. And one of the two legends of the current peloton.

I'm Old School, I saw Anquetil racing live. I don't toss around Legend easily. There are no current Legends riding right now, not yet, at least IMO. But Nibali is the only one getting close to that status!

Oh wooow..How about Valverde?

What about him? Great rider; Legend Not. But his story isn't done yet.

I think you are being quite harsh on valverde Here. A man with His palmares should rightly be seen as a Legend in most people's book.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

Most of the GC riders who race Liege don't go to Fleche Wallone or Amstel. The guys typically in the mix for Amstel specifically besides Valverde are classics riders. Dan Martin and Alaphilippe are the only two that are really contenders that race Fleche Wallone as well as Liege. Nibali, Bardet, et al show up just for Liege.

Nibali will ride all three.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

Most of the GC riders who race Liege don't go to Fleche Wallone or Amstel. The guys typically in the mix for Amstel specifically besides Valverde are classics riders. Dan Martin and Alaphilippe are the only two that are really contenders that race Fleche Wallone as well as Liege. Nibali, Bardet, et al show up just for Liege.

Nibali will ride all three.

He hasn't before, why will he this time?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

Most of the GC riders who race Liege don't go to Fleche Wallone or Amstel. The guys typically in the mix for Amstel specifically besides Valverde are classics riders. Dan Martin and Alaphilippe are the only two that are really contenders that race Fleche Wallone as well as Liege. Nibali, Bardet, et al show up just for Liege.

Nibali will ride all three.

He hasn't before, why will he this time?

Every year when he goes to TdF he rides all three, 2012, 2014,2015.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I don't see the point you're trying to make.

And the other GC riders typically ride at least FW and very often all 3.

Most of the GC riders who race Liege don't go to Fleche Wallone or Amstel. The guys typically in the mix for Amstel specifically besides Valverde are classics riders. Dan Martin and Alaphilippe are the only two that are really contenders that race Fleche Wallone as well as Liege. Nibali, Bardet, et al show up just for Liege.

Nibali will ride all three.

He hasn't before, why will he this time?

Every year when he goes to TdF he rides all three, 2012, 2014,2015.

Ok. Obviously he's not really in the mix for Amstel (not totally surprising) or Fleche Wallone.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

What a rider. He better go all the way in Liege now, too.

He usually races Liege, but remember that's Valverde's playground.

It has only been Valverde's playground since riders stopped making serious early moves. That might change again with Nibali this year.

Exactly, a great Nibali could make it super interesting and very hard for Valverde to win! I get why he wants to race Pais Vasco, but he is a very mediocre one week stage racer at this point, I'd really prefer him to prioritise Flanders over Pais Vasco.

I am as big a fan of one week races as anyone (at least I see them as being undervalued), and I would like Nibali to focus on the cobbled classics this year. Flanders is a possibility, and if he can top ten P-R this year then next year he might even win it if he fully focused on it (probably adding 10 kgs and foregoing GT's). It sounds like a pipe dream, but given that LBL is a realistic goal, all five monuments is not impossible, though time is his enemy of course.

In any case, he has already had an amazing career!

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

What a rider. He better go all the way in Liege now, too.

He usually races Liege, but remember that's Valverde's playground.

It has only been Valverde's playground since riders stopped making serious early moves. That might change again with Nibali this year.

Exactly, a great Nibali could make it super interesting and very hard for Valverde to win! I get why he wants to race Pais Vasco, but he is a very mediocre one week stage racer at this point, I'd really prefer him to prioritise Flanders over Pais Vasco.

I am as big a fan of one week races as anyone (at least I see them as being undervalued), and I would like Nibali to focus on the cobbled classics this year. Flanders is a possibility, and if he can top ten P-R this year then next year he might even win it if he fully focused on it (probably adding 10 kgs and foregoing GT's). It sounds like a pipe dream, but given that LBL is a realistic goal, all five monuments is not impossible, though time is his enemy of course.

In any case, he has already had an amazing career!

LBL is a goal but unlikely with Valverde, Alaphilippe and Martin also targeting it thus 3 teams wanting to ensure they get there as a group.

I agree an amazing career regardless. I do hope he races Flanders. Paris-Roubaix would be interesting.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

He has at this point displaced Simon Gerrans as the greatest overperformer of his physical talent in the peloton. He is very good at a lot of things, but is not in the top half dozen riders at anything, including descending. In this age of specialists, he really shouldn’t be able to win as much as he has. Yet look at his palmares. One of the most cunning and canny riders we’ve seen in modern cycling. There’s something truly admirable about that.

While i agree that he has surpassed his talent many times, i think you are underselling him saying that he isn't on the top half dozen in anything, his climbing on hard mountain stages is a bit underrated, his TT in the third week of a GT is very very good and his stamina has gotten incredible as he got older, who else could do what he's done today or at lombardia last year? He is a machine even on the flat after a long day in the saddle

I think he’s quite close to the top half dozen in a few things. When I say he has hugely over performed his talent, that doesn’t mean that he has a small talent. In climbing for instance, his best is very good, just not Froome, Quintana or even Landa very good. Where he surpasses them all though is in turning his talents into big wins. That’s what he has in common with Gerrans, a rider that in most ways is very dissimilar but has also earned a palmares that is much better than would be expected from a guy with his physical level. One of the weird things about cycling is that this seems like it’s a dismissal, but it really shouldn’t. Nibali has the tactical brain and the mentality of an all time great.

If you put his brain in Valverde’s body, you’d have the biggest winner since Merckx. Or if not quite that you’d at least have someone with the palmares level of a Kelly, which should otherwise be impossible nowadays.

 

[Summoned]

As far as the comparison between Nibali and Valverde goes, while I am entirely a partisan for Nibali, I think it is very difficult to argue that Valverde is not the better rider. Certainly he is the more talented rider. As evidence for this I would argue that there is no top-level race for which Nibali is as overwhelming a favorite as Valverde is for several races. And Valverde has an impressive success rate in these races that he enters as a presumptive winner. The only race I can think of that Nibali entered as anywhere near a presumptive winner would be the 2017 Lombardia. Compare that to Valverde at Spanish one-week races, Flèche, and LBL. Yes, Nibali is a better GT rider, or at least has better results, but Valverde is an under-rated GT rider, with his 2016 performance across all three GT's being a spectacular accomplishment from my perspective.

What I will say is a potential argument in favor of Nibali as a better rider than Valverde, though its merits are debatable, is that Nibali's ability to win so often, and, perhaps more impressively, in such varied fashion, means he is both adaptive and perceptive, possessing a tremendous understanding of how a race is progressing and what affords him the best opportunity to gain the victory. That may be the feature that differentiates him most from his contemporaries in the peloton, and even if it does not make him a greater rider than Valverde, it does set him apart from his current competitors. He may not be unique in the larger history of cycling, but I think no one else riding today can do what he does.

 

[aphronesis]

Re:

As far as the comparison between Nibali and Valverde goes, while I am entirely a partisan for Nibali, I think it is very difficult to argue that Valverde is not the better rider. Certainly he is the more talented rider. As evidence for this I would argue that there is no top-level race for which Nibali is as overwhelming a favorite as Valverde is for several races. And Valverde has an impressive success rate in these races that he enters as a presumptive winner. The only race I can think of that Nibali entered as anywhere near a presumptive winner would be the 2017 Lombardia. Compare that to Valverde at Spanish one-week races, Flèche, and LBL. Yes, Nibali is a better GT rider, or at least has better results, but Valverde is an under-rated GT rider, with his 2016 performance across all three GT's being a spectacular accomplishment from my perspective.

What I will say is a potential argument in favor of Nibali as a better rider than Valverde, though its merits are debatable, is that Nibali's ability to win so often, and, perhaps more impressively, in such varied fashion, means he is both adaptive and perceptive, possessing a tremendous understanding of how a race is progressing and what affords him the best opportunity to gain the victory. That may be the feature that differentiates him most from his contemporaries in the peloton, and even if it does not make him a greater rider than Valverde, it does set him apart from his current competitors. He may not be unique in the larger history of cycling, but I think no one else riding today can do what he does.

Giro?

 

[Jspear]

I'm seeing the name Valverde too much in this thread. (thumbs down emoji)

Who cares who's the "favorite" for Liege. Sagan was the favorite for MSR. Little good it did him. There's gonna be plenty of big boys racing in Liege, but Nibbes has bigger balls than all of them (Bardet could be a challenger when it comes to being gutsy). Today was awesome. Put a smile on my face like no other race so far this season.

 

[phanatic]

I think the final showdown between Nibali and Valverde will have to be on the neutral territory of RVV.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

BTW why are you guys convinced he will ride Pais Vasco? It's been years since the last time he did this race and I don't really see a point in riding it.

Why not?

Because it could mean skipping RVV and that doesn't make sense in the long run.
He already is in good shape and can challenge Liege without riding PV (2012).

And to reply to your previous point:
1) generally speaking, GT routes tend to be less and less appealing to Nibali's skills (short stages, very few multi mountain stages, lots of muritos, lack of hills, controlled racing);
2) focusing on Classics surely means no Giro, you can't peak in early spring for cobbles + Ardennes and then be competitive in the Giro. So that leaves only Tour and Vuelta and we go back to point 1;
3) i think if he really wanna be elite in the cobbles he needs more strength and power, and that probably means being heavier.