Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Re:

Climbing said:
Let’s see, 13 days, a couple of hard races and some training.
Ok form won’t be top for sure, but maybe it’s just a bit of pre-tactic, endurance could come out anyway in the end to favor him a bit.

What worries the most is Nibali’s mood.
One race, Pantani. Cassani says he's tranquillo so the mood might change. In the end it is what it is. At this point I'd be very happy to see him attack from 100km out with pal Sagan and I wouldn't really care when they would be caught.
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
I don't know Nibali's weight, but it isnt that high is it?
He should be 63 Kg. I guess it depends on a lot of factors, training ride, the distance and the difficulty of the terrain, what were his intentions so it doesn't mean much. During a race, winning efforts on a climb at the end of the stage in the 15-17 min. range are estimated at 470-480W for the likes of Froome, Contador and... Horner. As for power meter readings an example would be Krushweak on La Camperona 2018, 406 W for 12:23, 25 seconds slower than the best time of Quintana.
 
Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
Red Rick said:
I don't know Nibali's weight, but it isnt that high is it?
He should be 63 Kg. I guess it depends on a lot of factors, training ride, the distance and the difficulty of the terrain, what were his intentions so it doesn't mean much. During a race, winning efforts on a climb at the end of the stage in the 15-17 min. range are estimated at 470-480W for the likes of Froome, Contador and... Horner. As for power meter readings an example would be Krushweak on La Camperona 2018, 406 W for 12:23, 25 seconds slower than the best time of Quintana.
That's basically 6 W/kg if you add 7kg for bike and gear. I'm gonna guess he could do more, and Nibali never really excelled in training numbers, but I'm not really optimistic.
 
Before Innsbruck we won't get answers regarding his form. The fact that Moscon is in good form could actually be better for him, so the others will not only control him. Like I said, let's just wait another 10 days.
 
Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.
 
Re:

Rollthedice said:
Nibali trained yesterday around Lugano as witnessed by Strava. Apparently one eagle eye guy on twitter spotted his power which was removed soon, 421W for around 15 min. Maybe is not all lost.
Nibs is in full Batman mode. In Innsbruck you'll see the Shark Attack :exclaim: :exclaim: :exclaim:
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.
How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?
 
Re: Re:

TourOfSardinia said:
SafeBet said:
Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.
How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?
Aru would normally be the alternate plan. He was 6th in Rio.

But Aru is probably gonna be worse than Nibali.

Moscon and Pozzovivo are the alternatives.

I think Pozzovivo is going way under the radar.

He might make it to a final group of 3 sprinting for the win and lose out on a medal
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
TourOfSardinia said:
SafeBet said:
Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.
How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?
Aru would normally be the alternate plan. He was 6th in Rio.

But Aru is probably gonna be worse than Nibali.

Moscon and Pozzovivo are the alternatives.

I think Pozzovivo is going way under the radar.

He might make it to a final group of 3 sprinting for the win and lose out on a medal
:)
 
I concur with RR, Pozzovivo looks in good shape and can perform well in tough one day races. I don't think he has any chance of winning the race, but can easily top5.

Moscon is climbing better than Pozzovivo though. To me he's a total enigma, he's been borderline invisible for months and now he's suddenly in a monster shape. Cassani said the plan was for Moscon to ride the Vuelta and hit top shape at the end of it. One could wonder by how many minutes he'd be winning races if he indeed rode the Vuelta. The route looks very hard for him, but you can't rule him out at this point.

Formolo is another guy I'd keep an eye on, he's been sneaky good in LBL the past 2 years. Plus he rode the Vuelta without killing himself for GC. He might surprise.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
I concur with RR, Pozzovivo looks in good shape and can perform well in tough one day races. I don't think he has any chance of winning the race, but can easily top5.

Moscon is climbing better than Pozzovivo though. To me he's a total enigma, he's been borderline invisible for months and now he's suddenly in a monster shape. Cassani said the plan was for Moscon to ride the Vuelta and hit top shape at the end of it. One could wonder by how many minutes he'd be winning races if he indeed rode the Vuelta. The route looks very hard for him, but you can't rule him out at this point.

Formolo is another guy I'd keep an eye on, he's been sneaky good in LBL the past 2 years. Plus he rode the Vuelta without killing himself for GC. He might surprise.
The thing with guys like Formolo is, even out of shape Nibali will probably be better than Formolo. After all, Nibali wasn't horrible in the Vuelta. On stage 20 he was one of the strongest riders of an extremely strong break, in a stage that didn't suit Nibali that well. Even now I can see Nibali being one of the top ten strongest riders of this race, it's just that the gap from 10th best to best is still pretty big.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
I think Pozzovivo is going way under the radar.

He might make it to a final group of 3 sprinting for the win and lose out on a medal
Poor Pozzovivo. I am reminded of this classic post on this theme:

Geraint Too Fast said:
Nobody comes close to Pozzovivio in this category.

7th from a three man group - http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=23719

5th from a two man group - http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=25363
Videos of the sprints in these races:

https://youtu.be/N4nHaouIQH4?t=787

https://youtu.be/qMFyOw5EKw4?t=186

To judge by this week's Giro della Toscana, he is no longer even trying in such situations: https://youtu.be/Xl2VVPXqfz0?t=6449

So, yes, for Pozzovivo to win he needs to finish alone.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
I concur with RR, Pozzovivo looks in good shape and can perform well in tough one day races. I don't think he has any chance of winning the race, but can easily top5.

Moscon is climbing better than Pozzovivo though. To me he's a total enigma, he's been borderline invisible for months and now he's suddenly in a monster shape. Cassani said the plan was for Moscon to ride the Vuelta and hit top shape at the end of it. One could wonder by how many minutes he'd be winning races if he indeed rode the Vuelta. The route looks very hard for him, but you can't rule him out at this point.

Formolo is another guy I'd keep an eye on, he's been sneaky good in LBL the past 2 years. Plus he rode the Vuelta without killing himself for GC. He might surprise.
I don't think Formolo will be selected. Nibali, Aru, De Marchi, Caruso, Pozzo, Franco and Moscon seem sure. Then I'd say it's between Visconti and Cataldo. Italy under Cassani did some superb team work and great tactical decisions that's why, with Vincenzo at 70-80-90%, Moscon will probably be the protected leader. Pozzo and the others will work for this. I think an aggressive tactic and trying to blow up the race is the only way Moscon can win. Nibali will have his own race to do as a joker. Regardless of his bad shape if he can hang on long enough he will try something sooner or later.
 

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