Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Rollthedice]

Haven't felt this optimistic about Nibali at this stage of a gt in a very long time. Now that I think of it, the last time must have been in 2014. Of course everything so far could as well be misleading as we haven't had a proper uphill test but the signs are surely good. Roglic will be hard to crack but I think Nibali will give him a hard time.

We all knew Roglic is a way better TTer than all except Dumoulin who went home, so he didn't quite impress me yet. Let's see how he can climb and starting with Thursday until the second rest day we'll find out.

Apart from Nibali, his sharkness and his better mountain team, Astana will go mental, Yates is a very good climber if he can recover from this shock and let's not forget the Movistar amigos. If he's not some sort of Lance (though that man had a team) he will crack sooner or later. But as they say, more on that later...

 

[huge]

I don't expect him to try anything on Thu.
The climb is too far from the finish (20k of flat after the descent). There is a high risk of wasting precious energies that would be very much needed on Fri and Sat. Both brutal stages.
Also, being the only real climb of the day, the peloton will still be all together (apart from a likely small breakaway group up ahead) when the climb starts. Every GC rider will still have plenty of team mates pulling for them.

 

[Blanco]

I expect only Astana and Movistar will try something on Thursday maybe, with Bilbao and Carapaz. Lo squalo will wait...

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

I expect only Astana and Movistar will try something on Thursday maybe, with Bilbao and Carapaz. Lo squalo will wait...

It's the easiest stage before 3 consecutive mountain stages, so it's understandable.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't expect him to try anything on Thu.
The climb is too far from the finish (20k of flat after the descent). There is a high risk of wasting precious energies that would be very much needed on Fri and Sat. Both brutal stages.
Also, being the only real climb of the day, the peloton will still be all together (apart from a likely small breakaway group up ahead) when the climb starts. Every GC rider will still have plenty of team mates pulling for them.

I think the breakaway will be massive on Thursday and all climbers without GC aspirations want to be in it. Imagine a lot of domestiques want to be in it too so depending on that attacking may actually be viable.

 

[Climbing]

Not impossible to make a move to bridge on Montoso, but the stage isn't particularly favourable to Nibali and with Friday looming the next day I think he will just defend, unless somebody falters.
Must be very careful to not lose time on San Maurizio.
I'm sure he'll try Friday to test Roglic, if he has the legs.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm expecting guys like Landa and MAL to make moves on Montoso

Nibali will want to make Roglic out.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I'm expecting guys like Landa and MAL to make moves on Montoso

Nibali will want to make Roglic out.

After yesterday's stage Vino, a bit irritated, asked a journalist where will the Giro end, obviously the answer was Verona. So, yes I expect Astana warfare as early as Montoso with Movistar amigos joining in and maybe even MS.

The real fun though should start on Friday with everybody and their mothers in the break and hell on Pian del Lupo though without Nibali the main instigator.

 

[HelloDolly]

Wiggo on how sensitive Nibali is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MANWz1QhKlU

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Wiggo on how sensitive Nibali is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MANWz1QhKlU

All the giggles there are quite funny now after the TT with Yates' "jokes" taken too seriously by "sensitive" Nibali. Won't say anything about Wiggo because I might cross certain lines.

 

[Summoned]

Not that it is terribly indicative of anything other than Nibali rides well in time trials when he is a serious contender for the win or podium in GT's, but below is an overview (admittedly with incomplete information) of his performances in ITT's during GT's where he was riding for GC.

2009 Tour -- Stage 1 -- 15.5 Km -- Finished 9th
2009 Tour -- State 18 -- 40Km (Flat) -- ? (Lost 1:23 to Wiggins)
2010 Giro -- Stage 1 -- 8.4 Km -- ?
2010 Giro -- Stage 16 -- 12.9 Km (Uphill) -- Finished 4th
2010 Giro -- Stage 21-- 15.3 Km (Mostly flat, one hill) -- Finished 5th
2010 Vuelta -- Stage 17 -- 46 Km -- ? (Lost 1:55 to Velits)
2011 Giro -- Stage 16 -- 12.7 Km (Uphill) -- 2nd
2011 Giro -- Stage 21 -- 26 Km (Flat) -- ? (Lost 0:42 to Contador)
2011 Vuelta -- Stage 10 -- 47 Km (Flat?) -- ? (Lost 0:47 to Fuglsang)
2012 Tour -- Prologue -- 6.4 Km (Flat) -- ?
2012 Tour -- Stage 9 -- 41.5 Km (Flat/some hills) -- 8th (Lost 2:07 to Wiggins; lost 1:01 to Van Garderen)
2012 Tour -- Stage 19 -- 53.5 Km (Flat) -- ? (Lost 3:30 to Wiggins; lost 1:14 to Van Garderen)
2013 Giro -- Stage 8 -- 54.8 Km (Flat/some hills) -- 4th
2013 Giro -- Stage 18 -- 20.6 Km (Uphill) -- 1st
2013 Vuelta -- Stage 11 -- 38.8 Km (Flat) -- 4th
2014 Tour -- Stage 20 -- 54 Km (Flat/some hills) -- 4th
2015 Tour -- Stage 1 -- 13.8 Km (Flat) -- ? (Lost 0:43 to Dennis; Lost 0:35 to Dumoulin)
2016 Giro -- Stage 1 -- 9.8 Km -- ?
2016 Giro -- Stage 9 -- 40.5 Km (Flat) -- ? (Gained 0:10 on Kruijswijk)
2016 Giro -- Stage 15 -- 10.8 Km (Uphill) -- ? (Lost 2:10 on Kruijswijk)
2017 Giro -- Stage 10 -- 39.8 Km -- 6th (Lost 2:07 on Dumoulin; Lost 1:18 on Thomas)
2017 Giro -- Stage 21 -- 29.3 Km (Flat) -- ? (Lost 0:54 on Dumoulin)
2017 Vuelta -- Stage 16 -- 40.2 (Flat/some hills) -- 3rd (Lost 0:57 on Froome)
2019 Giro -- Stage 1 -- 8.3 Km (Uphill) -- 3rd (Lost 0:23 on Roglic)
2019 Giro -- Stage 9 -- 34.7 Km (Flat/uphill finish) -- 4th (Lost 1:05 on Roglic)

No terribly insightful conclusions to draw from this, but a couple of thoughts. In two of his GT wins he did not make the top 10 in an ITT -- 2010 Vuelta and 2016 Giro. In only two of these GT's did he fail to make the podium -- 2011 Vuelta and 2015 Tour. Not too terribly indicative of anything, but he did not make top 10 in ITT's in those GT's. But what is clear is that Nibali does have a decent record of top 10 finishes in ITT's in GT's. In only four of the GT's listed above did he fail to have a top-10 in an ITT. He may not excel in an individual time trial, but his record of good results in ITT's goes back ten years now.

 

[topt]

Re: Re:

Again, as in the first TT in line with the expectations, on track for the fifth GT.

HIs time loss to Rogla was completely expected. So that's fair enough.

But he is a huge winner since Lopez, Landa and especially Yates lost a bunch of time. That obviously means that his big rivals are further back, but maybe more importantly, that they would want to use all the possibilities to put pressure on Rogla. And in the end Nibali could very well benefit from that effort. So with that in mind, it really was a great result.

In order to win a GT everything must fall into place. Actually I considered Yates more dangerous than Roglic in the long run. We all know that Roglic is on fire from the beginning of the year but until now he just did what he was supposed to do, win two TTs tailor made for him.

Until now Nibali was defending and we enter the part of the race where the main stages are tailor made for him. Roglic hasn't shown anything remotely close to what Nibali is capable of in 200km+ multi high mountain stages plus he will be alone very soon. Of course, anything is possible but right now Vincenzo has a good chance to realistically fight for the win.

yes he has, I am sorry to say but you are all dreaming a bit , I will be shocked if he beats Roglic, when was the last time Nibali beat Rogla ?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Again, as in the first TT in line with the expectations, on track for the fifth GT.

HIs time loss to Rogla was completely expected. So that's fair enough.

But he is a huge winner since Lopez, Landa and especially Yates lost a bunch of time. That obviously means that his big rivals are further back, but maybe more importantly, that they would want to use all the possibilities to put pressure on Rogla. And in the end Nibali could very well benefit from that effort. So with that in mind, it really was a great result.

In order to win a GT everything must fall into place. Actually I considered Yates more dangerous than Roglic in the long run. We all know that Roglic is on fire from the beginning of the year but until now he just did what he was supposed to do, win two TTs tailor made for him.

Until now Nibali was defending and we enter the part of the race where the main stages are tailor made for him. Roglic hasn't shown anything remotely close to what Nibali is capable of in 200km+ multi high mountain stages plus he will be alone very soon. Of course, anything is possible but right now Vincenzo has a good chance to realistically fight for the win.

yes he has, I am sorry to say but you are all dreaming a bit , I will be shocked if he beats Roglic, when was the last time Nibali beat Rogla ?

When did Roglic beat Nibali in a race Nibali gave a damn about?

There's not a single indicator of how they match up. In fact Roglic finished s.t. as Nibali in the very stage in which Nibali broke his back.

 

[Climbing]

Let's wait next weekend for a clearer picture.
I wouldn't even be super surprised if neither of them is the better climber in the race, actually.

 

[SafeBet]

What is Roglic best performance in a multi mountain GT stage? Laruns? I don't think that's enough to claim he's better than Nibali on such stages.

Of course Roglic is probably a better rider than last year, and Nibali might not be at his best anymore. But there's really no evidence of Roglic being better than Nibali in high altitude climbing or in endurance.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

What is Roglic best performance in a multi mountain GT stage? Laruns? I don't think that's enough to claim he's better than Nibali on such stages.

Of course Roglic is probably a better rider than last year, and Nibali might not be at his best anymore. But there's really no evidence of Roglic being better than Nibali in high altitude climbing or in endurance.

He was very good at Laruns, pretty good at Alpe but as you say, he is most likely a better version of himself this year. Well, surely overall, high mountain climbing to be determined.

 

[topt]

Re: Re:

Again, as in the first TT in line with the expectations, on track for the fifth GT.

HIs time loss to Rogla was completely expected. So that's fair enough.

But he is a huge winner since Lopez, Landa and especially Yates lost a bunch of time. That obviously means that his big rivals are further back, but maybe more importantly, that they would want to use all the possibilities to put pressure on Rogla. And in the end Nibali could very well benefit from that effort. So with that in mind, it really was a great result.

In order to win a GT everything must fall into place. Actually I considered Yates more dangerous than Roglic in the long run. We all know that Roglic is on fire from the beginning of the year but until now he just did what he was supposed to do, win two TTs tailor made for him.

Until now Nibali was defending and we enter the part of the race where the main stages are tailor made for him. Roglic hasn't shown anything remotely close to what Nibali is capable of in 200km+ multi high mountain stages plus he will be alone very soon. Of course, anything is possible but right now Vincenzo has a good chance to realistically fight for the win.

yes he has, I am sorry to say but you are all dreaming a bit , I will be shocked if he beats Roglic, when was the last time Nibali beat Rogla ?

When did Roglic beat Nibali in a race Nibali gave a damn about?

There's not a single indicator of how they match up. In fact Roglic finished s.t. as Nibali in the very stage in which Nibali broke his back.

oh yes i forgot about that, voodoo is a ***

 

[tobydawq]

He also beat him at Lombardia.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Let's wait next weekend for a clearer picture.
I wouldn't even be super surprised if neither of them is the better climber in the race, actually.

In order to win, one has to be better than the other in this particular race. The best climber? Not important, mano a mano on this parcours neither will be able to gain 2+ minutes on Nibs even if he has one lesser day. Only a catastrophic miscalculation or a PSM repeat, both unlikely to happen, can do that. He has to deal with Roglic but he is not alone in this, Roglic is.

 

[Gigs_98]

Obviously there isn't a big sample size for any kind of mountain stages when it comes to Roglic, but I really wouldn't be worried about how he deals with long stages and altitude. He won the really hard and over 200 k long laruns stage last season and the high altitude and also pretty long briancon stage the year before.
Doesn't mean he is better on long stages than on short ones but it proves he copes with 200 kilometers and altitude

 

[Red Rick]

Obviously there isn't a big sample size for any kind of mountain stages when it comes to Roglic, but I really wouldn't be worried about how he deals with long stages and altitude. He won the really hard and over 200 k long laruns stage last season and the high altitude and also pretty long briancon stage the year before.
Doesn't mean he is better on long stages than on short ones but it proves he copes with 200 kilometers and altitude

Both stages you mentioned were barely over 5 hours. I don't see a reason why altitude would be a specific problem, but then Nibali probably does relatively better at higher altitude than lower altitude.

More interesting question for me is how he copes with consecutive big mountain stages and stages that are raced further from the finish. He wasn't good in the 2nd and 3rd Alpine stage last year and there was a flat stage inbetween the Pyrenees block, with the 2nd consecutive Pyrenees stage being only 65km. And in Il Lombardia he was clearly the 3rd strongest on the Muro di Sormano before being completely empty at the base of the Civiglio

 

[yaco]

A.Yates did drop Roglic on the most difficult day in Tirreno Adriatico.

 

[Cookster15]

Obviously there isn't a big sample size for any kind of mountain stages when it comes to Roglic, but I really wouldn't be worried about how he deals with long stages and altitude. He won the really hard and over 200 k long laruns stage last season and the high altitude and also pretty long briancon stage the year before.
Doesn't mean he is better on long stages than on short ones but it proves he copes with 200 kilometers and altitude

Both stages you mentioned were barely over 5 hours. I don't see a reason why altitude would be a specific problem, but then Nibali probably does relatively better at higher altitude than lower altitude.

More interesting question for me is how he copes with consecutive big mountain stages and stages that are raced further from the finish. He wasn't good in the 2nd and 3rd Alpine stage last year and there was a flat stage inbetween the Pyrenees block, with the 2nd consecutive Pyrenees stage being only 65km. And in Il Lombardia he was clearly the 3rd strongest on the Muro di Sormano before being completely empty at the base of the Civiglio

I am thinking Roglic could be stronger now than the 2nd and 3rd Alpine stage last year. 29 years old, one year stronger, and still only quite new to the sport. But then again we are only guessing.

 

[pink_jersey]

Re:

A.Yates did drop Roglic on the most difficult day in Tirreno Adriatico.

Yates was Purito-like in that stage. Nibali can't do that. Actually, Roglic is much more explosive than him. I'm not sure that even Simon can do that. He doesn't seem as punchy as Adam to me.
If Roglic keeps his cool, he has this in the bag.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

A.Yates did drop Roglic on the most difficult day in Tirreno Adriatico.

Yates was Purito-like in that stage. Nibali can't do that. Actually, Roglic is much more explosive than him. I'm not sure that even Simon can do that. He doesn't seem as punchy as Adam to me.
If Roglic keeps his cool, he has this in the bag.

Except this is not T-A. Why are we even talking about who's who and what did he do on punchy climbs? We have no real comparison standard on proper mountains between Roglic and Nibali, all we can do is speculate based on brokeback mountain and Lombardia.