Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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I kinda sorta agree with the people who say it's not over yet. Like, two years ago Froome was in a similar position and ended up winning the giro and then two years further away Nibali himself was in a similar position and ended up winning too. That's the thing with those sort of guys, that you can be certain they won't just suck wheels for a week but will instead go on the attack and if the stars align everything is possible. It's just that that's super improbable and I don't want to hype myself up pretending a repeat of 2016 is a likely scenario. It isn't.

One thing I will say though, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kelderman indeed cracks next week. It's still Wilco freakin Kelderman, not some young guy we've never seen racing before like Almeida. We know his strengths and being consistent over a three week gt sure as hell is not one of them. It's just that if Nibali doesn't improve drastically there are about 10 riders who need to crack badly for him to win the giro and that's not gonna happen.
 
I kinda sorta agree with the people who say it's not over yet. Like, two years ago Froome was in a similar position and ended up winning the giro and then two years further away Nibali himself was in a similar position and ended up winning too. That's the thing with those sort of guys, that you can be certain they won't just suck wheels for a week but will instead go on the attack and if the stars align everything is possible. It's just that that's super improbable and I don't want to hype myself up pretending a repeat of 2016 is a likely scenario. It isn't.

One thing I will say though, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kelderman indeed cracks next week. It's still Wilco freakin Kelderman, not some young guy we've never seen racing before like Almeida. We know his strengths and being consistent over a three week gt sure as hell is not one of them. It's just that if Nibali doesn't improve drastically there are about 10 riders who need to crack badly for him to win the giro and that's not gonna happen.
Dunno, wearing pink does wonders for shape/morale. We might see the best Wilco of his career.

The big problem with Nibali is that the rider who is capable of making such great comebacks is probably gone. I am sure 2020 would have been one last good GC season if not for the change of schedule that messed up Slongo's magical prep. Right now I just don't see him coming into form.

But I'm not calling it. It's the Giro and anything can happen, so forza Vincenzo!

P.S. If Vincenzo is over then I will feel better rooting for Almeida. The dude has shown great spirit, he reminds me of JA 2019 clinging to the jersey with all his might. Even if he doesn't succeed (which is the most likely outcome IMO) he still earned my admiration.
 
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Oct 8, 2020
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He did not have the legs yesterday in the tt he didn't today as well, so I consider it a single bad day. But still Almeida and Kelderman are unknown quantity at the very top. Almeida for example has shown his inexperience today when he buried himself to keep the pink jersey but he could well have saved lots of energy choosing to wait for masnada anf knox not so far behind. Also now Ineos will become a factor at the gc floor, so another variable to consider. So we still might live to see some exciting comebacks
 
Kelderman may have weaker days next week, but what makes this day different is that Nibali could not follow the pace of the 3rd Sunweb in the day's hierarchy which is different to his usual attempts to follow actual team leaders.
Yet he was the last to hang on from the group of seasoned grand tour riders destroyed by three Sunweb, Tao, Almeida and another DQS. Next level generation.
 
One thing we must remember when we move to the 3rd week is that the route has not yet gone high at any point. Yes, there has been some tough slopes to tackle but come Thursday & Saturday, the air will be 1000 meters thinner to breathe and these young guns have no form to speak of about going on those conditions. Some will likely thrive, but some are just as likely to collapse.
 
Yet he was the last to hang on from the group of seasoned grand tour riders destroyed by three Sunweb, Tao, Almeida and another DQS. Next level generation.
Penultimate. Majka was the last (depending on one's definition of seasoned grand tour riders).

I think at this point Nibali would need allies to come back. Maybe even Fuglsang can be the one and Pozzo another. Waiting for Almeida and Kelderman to crack without applying a lot of pressure may not be a viable scenario.
 
Reactions: Forever The Best
Penultimate. Majka was the last (depending on one's definition of seasoned grand tour riders).

I think at this point Nibali would need allies to come back. Maybe even Fuglsang can be the one and Pozzo another. Waiting for Almeida and Kelderman to crack without applying a lot of pressure may not be a viable scenario.
I have this, but of course things changed later and Majka overtook him.



By the way of Wilco, I think he was on the limit in Hindley's wheel.
 
I kinda sorta agree with the people who say it's not over yet. Like, two years ago Froome was in a similar position and ended up winning the giro and then two years further away Nibali himself was in a similar position and ended up winning too. That's the thing with those sort of guys, that you can be certain they won't just suck wheels for a week but will instead go on the attack and if the stars align everything is possible. It's just that that's super improbable and I don't want to hype myself up pretending a repeat of 2016 is a likely scenario. It isn't.

One thing I will say though, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kelderman indeed cracks next week. It's still Wilco freakin Kelderman, not some young guy we've never seen racing before like Almeida. We know his strengths and being consistent over a three week gt sure as hell is not one of them. It's just that if Nibali doesn't improve drastically there are about 10 riders who need to crack badly for him to win the giro and that's not gonna happen.
Thing is in 2018 nor 2016 there weren't guys doing the fastest climbing times in well over a decade. In 2016, Kruijswijk was just strong, but not unbeatable at all and still needed to crash to lose it. In 2018 Froome had already won the Zoncolan and there had been the insanity that was the Finestre stage. Both raids were also backed up by the strongest team in the race at the most critical stages of the race.

Riders were talking about record numbers all the way through the Tour, I thought it was obvious the same would happen in the Giro, in absolute terms, and it seems all the usual suspects missed the memo. Nibali isn't even that trash compared to the guys he's mostly been beating for the better part of a decade, especially if you account hanging on for too long cause only winning matters (Contador speçial). Sure there's an argument today didn't suit him, but there is a stratospheric gap between where Nibali was now and where he'd need to be to have a shot at winning. I think the top 4 of today are all out of reach. With that, a stage might also be out of reach. All that's left is maybe cause some mayhem and a good show and go down swinging this Giro, but to really go down swinging is much easier if you just had a random trash day but the form is otherwise up there, i.e. Contador 2011 Tour/2017 Vuelta and stuff like that.
 
I have this, but of course things changed later and Majka overtook him.



By the way of Wilco, I think he was on the limit in Hindley's wheel.
He was. Hindly easily the strongest climber today. Sad to no end he's on the same team as Kelderman.

But then maybe they'll just troll and send him up the road and it's the novel method for Kelderman losing ***. Kelderman is leaving the team after all.
 
Reactions: Rollthedice
To be honest, I don't expect anything so I will not get the dissapointment of today. On top I'll be busy on the Stelvio stage which in turn reminds me of the Agnello stage in 2016 when I was busy having a workshop with a Dutch guy. I broke him the news of Kruijswik's encounter with the snow bank.
 
Reactions: Red Rick
To be honest, I don't expect anything so I will not get the dissapointment of today. On top I'll be busy on the Stelvio stage which in turn reminds me of the Agnello stage in 2016 when I was busy having a workshop with a Dutch guy. I broke him the news of Kruijswik's encounter with the snow bank.
Agnello stage 2016 I convinced a buddy of mine to watch cycling with me for the first time.

He was like "that's not supposed to happen right"
 
Reactions: Rollthedice
Waiting for Vincenzo's reactions here's what Martinelli, former DS Pantani, Nibali and now Bird:

"It's a Giro for the young people. They have more strength, they are more fighters, there is little to do. They have more power in their legs, they are brave, they don't even look at the numbers on the computer. They push as hard as they can. Cycling is changing."

"Fuglsang and Nibali are in a very similar situation, when these young people change pace they just can't keep up. We tried to push Jakub, but he just couldn't go any faster. Overturning the Giro? It takes legs, especially in this Giro, tactics counts so far".
 
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2014 Giro at second rest day: Quintana was 5th, 2:40 behind the leader.
2016 Giro at second rest day: Nibali was 3rd, 2:51 behind the leader.
2018 Giro at second rest day: Froome was in 7th, 4:52 behind the leader.

All three of them ended up winning the race.

Today, Nibali is 3:29 down, in 7th place. Victory is by no means out of the question.
 
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"It was a hard stage that I raced without sparing myself. Sunweb on the last climb imposed a very strong rhythm, we saw it in the race and the numbers confirm it. For me and many other riders it was difficult to sustain. I defended myself and I limited the delay, because at the end of the Giro there is still a week to go and the stakes are still high. Kelderman confirmed the impressions I already had and Almeida is very solid every day that passes. This is the reality of the facts, it must be accepted but also faced with determination and grinta in the stages to come"

Slongo:

"Vincenzo has reached his usual values, which in the past allowed him to win important races. There are simply some riders who are going faster at the moment and we have to take note of this. It is part of the sport. Vincenzo has always made regularity his strength and while the others were beginning to be tired he emerged. However, we do not give up and we will try to do something in the coming days".
 
Reactions: Oliver and Carols

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