Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[tobydawq]

In the whole long history of the Tour, it has only happened twice that two riders have occupied the first two spots in two editions on GC but in different order. In 1985/86 with Hinault and Lemond, and in 2021/22 with Vingegaard and Pogačar.

It has only happened twice that two riders have shared the top two three times. Armstrong/Ullrich and Hinault/Zoetemelk but in both cases, the same rider won all three.

No matter how this Tour ends (as long as they don't have an accident), it will be the first time ever that the top two consists of the same two riders three years in a row, and should Pogačar manage to flip the tables and sandwich Vingegaard on the honours list it would be completely unprecedented.

In other words, we have an absolutely epic duel on our hands and I thought it might deserve its own thread (I at least don't think there is one) now that much lesser duels like Remco/Roglič - who only by schedule coincidence have crossed paths a few times - have one.

This is like peak Armstrong/Ullrich except that it's much closer and you actually have the feeling it can go either way without anyone being unlucky.

I don't know exactly what I want with this thread. It's obvious that they are different riders and that Pogačar is much more than a GC rider while Vingegaard is not, but that doesn't take away from their July battles.

May the best rider win.

 

[Poursuivant]

And both are very young and have years left in their careers.

 

[ppanther92]

I am actually baffled that this is so rare. Interesting. Cause one actually remembers the duels - Contador vs. Schleck, Armstrong vs. Ullrich for me. But true, short lived both and with one rider clearly having the upper hand.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I would have guessed that Froome-Quintana were 1-2 three times. I completely forgot that Bardet finished 2nd in 2016. I can't remember a single thing about that Tour. I looked that the GC 2 minutes ago and already forgot who finished 4th. Different times.

 

[topcat]

In the whole long history of the Tour, it has only happened twice that two riders have occupied the first two spots in two editions on GC but in different order. In 1985/86 with Hinault and Lemond, and in 2021/22 with Vingegaard and Pogačar.

It has only happened twice that two riders have shared the top two three times. Armstrong/Ullrich and Hinault/Zoetemelk but in both cases, the same rider won all three.

No matter how this Tour ends (as long as they don't have an accident), it will be the first time ever that the top two consists of the same two riders three years in a row, and should Pogačar manage to flip the tables and sandwich Vingegaard on the honours list it would be completely unprecedented.

In other words, we have an absolutely epic duel on our hands and I thought it might deserve its own thread (I at least don't think there is one) now that much lesser duels like Remco/Roglič - who only by schedule coincidence have crossed paths a few times - have one.

This is like peak Armstrong/Ullrich except that it's much closer and you actually have the feeling it can go either way without anyone being unlucky.

I don't know exactly what I want with this thread. It's obvious that they are different riders and that Pogačar is much more than a GC rider while Vingegaard is not, but that doesn't take away from their July battles.

May the best rider win.

Fine op and I love your enthusiasm. I suppose the main question is Who do you dis more? Pog or Vinnie?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I think everybody is very confused about what is favored by whom right now. What I would like to know is: Who is favored in the Stage 16 ITT? Vingegaard has beaten Pogačar in the third week TT both of the last two years, but this one includes more short climbs. Who benefits from this? I would say that Pogačar has the upper hand (and wrist) right now, but can we really be sure Marie Blanque was just a one-off? It is very weird to claim lack of race sharpness on Stage 5 when the riders had already tackled some tough basque climbs.
What sounds kind of hilarious is that Pogačar seems to have broken through to another level, especially in climbing this year. Vingegaard is doing similarly to last year, yet has already been beaten twice by Pogačar. It does not sound crazy for a 24-year-old to improve, but you‘d have thought Pogačar would hit a physical limit of sorts.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

To highlight how rare repeats of the same top-2 are: there is nobody who Raymond Poulidor, the eternal second place to end all eternal second places, finished second to in the Tour GC on multiple occasions.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Duels between the two in TDF:

TDF 2021:
27 km ITT - advantage Pog, Pog win
Romme/Colombiere - advantage Pog
Tignes - advantage Pog
Ventoux - advantage Vingegaard, neutralized on descent
Col du Portet - even, Pog win
Luz Ardiden - even, Pog win
30 km ITT - advantage Vingegaard

TDF 2022:
La Planche - even, Pog win
Granon - advantage Vingegaard, Vingegaard win
Alpe d' Huez - even
Mur de Peguere - even
Peyragudes - even, Pog win
Hautacam - advantage Vingegaard, Vingegaard win
40 km ITT - advantage Vingegaard

TDF 2023:
Jaizkibel - even
Marie Blanque - Vingegaard advantage
Cauteres Campasque - Pogacar advantage, Pog win
Puy de Dome - Pogacar advantage

 

[Lorzenz08]

As I've already posted yesterday we must only hope no one will suffer an accident, injury, or big tactical mistake.

This is going to be really thrilling.

 

[Nick2413]

To highlight how rare repeats of the same top-2 are: there is nobody who Raymond Poulidor, the eternal second place to end all eternal second places, finished second to in the Tour GC on multiple occasions.

So does legend have it that he was able to break the curse and pass the affliction on to Wout Van Aert, so his grandson could win in eternity?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar is a beast in 20/30 minutes efforts so he will win the TT. Slovenian TT showed how strong he is in these type of efforts.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Pogacar is a beast in 20/30 minutes efforts so he will win the TT. Slovenian TT showed how strong he is in these type of efforts.

Don't jinx it.

 

[Andy schleck]

Orla chennaoui has better legs than Vingegaard and pogacar.

 

[Cookster15]

Thanks for the thread and a great OP. I think we are in for an enthralling contest. Yes, as good maybe even better than those other great duels of history mentioned.

I am probably biased but am starting to get the feeling that by the TT we might see this is a better Pog than we have seen before. Most riders don’t peak until mid / late 20s at least. Pog is two years younger than Vingegaard at just 24. Maybe Marie Blanque came too early but maybe he didn’t lose as much time as JV hoped as they tried again on stage 6 but it backfired?

I don’t buy many of the supposed truths about Vingegaard’s advantages. These are beginning to sound like excuses?

Vingegaard was supposed to have an advantage in the heat - now debunked. I also don’t buy that Pogacar is weaker in the 3rd week. Plus with his interrupted prep due to his LBL crash Pogacar will most likely get stronger towards the 3rd week - but I am not sure Vingegaard will? He was devastating at the Dauphine but so far a little underwhelming.

I think Pogacar looks most likely today. Let’s see what happens on the Grand Colombier on Friday.

 

[gunara]

I like Pog better than most other star cyclists these days, he's like a sunshine. But, as a cycling fan, I also feel that sooner or later it's going to take something out of my enjoyment of watching the sport if Pog keeps beating specialists in their own fields, so all we have will be him and several number two's. That means, Vinge is as interesting as my neighbor's conversational skill, but I hope he gives Pog a really really tough time this time. The duel itself is nice, but I also hope someone else will give them more worries next time.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Great duels for yellow are rare. You usually know halfway the Tour who's going to win, or they're decided by a crash, injury or disease. Poulidor was third more often than second; Zoetemelk was the true eternal second. The eighties had several big duels, often involving Hinault and/or LeMond. In the nineties Pantani vs. Ullrich remains my favorite, because it was a climber vs. a time triallist.

This year is shaping up to be the most exciting duel of this century. Before the Tour I gave Pogacar the edge, because most of the mountain stages seemed to suit him well. When he unexpectedly lost time in stage 5 it looked bad, but since then he's been turning the tide.

After nine days I'm giving Pogacar a 55% chance to win the Tour. The Colombière and the ITT should suit him. The Joux-Plane can be tricky, but with that long, technical descent they might stay together there.

The queen stage over the Col de la Loze will probably be decisive. Whoever secures the yellow there should be able to defend it until Paris, although stage 20 is inviting for one last attempt. Hopefully it remains a great duel, not ruined by a crash or other kind of bad luck.

 

[dacooley]

Vingegaard has conducted a very smart race thus far. He realizes pointlessness of competing in sheer explosiveness against Pogacar, as the only rider able to contest Pogacar's explosiveness is Philipsen and it's merely about pancake flat stages accelerations. Let's see what the Alpine stages bring.

 

[Aimar16]

There are still a lot of stages to go before Paris. They won't go all the way at such a high level. I have no idea which one, but I think one of them will crack, badly.

 

[Bolder]

The interesting topic to me is whether Pogacar lost on Granon last year because of Jumbo tactics, Vingegaard's strength, or his own weakness after spending precious energy chasing Roglic and mugging for the cameras. I've favored the last explanation, and if he comes back to win this year it should be another point in favor of it.

I also think Loze will be decisive but if I were Pogacar I would think about looking to gain time on the Colombier stage.

 

[Netserk]

I think everybody is very confused about what is favored by whom right now. What I would like to know is: Who is favored in the Stage 16 ITT? Vingegaard has beaten Pogačar in the third week TT both of the last two years, but this one includes more short climbs. Who benefits from this? I would say that Pogačar has the upper hand (and wrist) right now, but can we really be sure Marie Blanque was just a one-off? It is very weird to claim lack of race sharpness on Stage 5 when the riders had already tackled some tough basque climbs.
What sounds kind of hilarious is that Pogačar seems to have broken through to another level, especially in climbing this year. Vingegaard is doing similarly to last year, yet has already been beaten twice by Pogačar. It does not sound crazy for a 24-year-old to improve, but you‘d have thought Pogačar would hit a physical limit of sorts.

From the spring, it seems Vingegaard has put greater focus on the 5'-20' minutes efforts this year. So I think the only clear difference is short hills and sprints where Pogi dominates. After that, I think it's mostly a question of form and freshness. ITTs likewise, but with the added twist of equipment.

Maybe the different preps this year are what will decide, and that freshness will show to triumph. I don't think Vingegaard will make a repeat of his show in Dauphiné next year.

 

[scapewalker]

This is duel is epic to say the least.

But it's giving me a headache not knowing who to root for.

I like Pogi he gives the sport such a positive vibe but on the hand i really despise sportswashing and dislike UAE.
Vingegaard is a hard to root for seeing is abit bland and i'm a Rogla stan.

Still having a blast this tour.

 

[gregrowlerson]

The interesting topic to me is whether Pogacar lost on Granon last year because of Jumbo tactics, Vingegaard's strength, or his own weakness after spending precious energy chasing Roglic and mugging for the cameras. I've favored the last explanation, and if he comes back to win this year it should be another point in favor of it.

I also think Loze will be decisive but if I were Pogacar I would think about looking to gain time on the Colombier stage.

You might be right about Pogacar being a little weak in 2022 (by Teddy standards), but perhaps still the Roglic influence is a little exaggerated. What if Pogacar just wasn't quite as strong full stop compared to 2021 and 2023? Covid went through UAE, highly possible he caught it and suffered a little. Even before Granon he barely beat Vingegaard on PDBF, and that climb should really suit Tadej, eh?

Vingegaard seems at least as strong to me in 2023 as 2022, so Pogacar has raised his game again (so far) in this race.

 

[Salvarani]

Great duels for yellow are rare. You usually know halfway the Tour who's going to win, or they're decided by a crash, injury or disease. Poulidor was third more often than second; Zoetemelk was the true eternal second. The eighties had several big duels, often involving Hinault and/or LeMond. In the nineties Pantani vs. Ullrich remains my favorite, because it was a climber vs. a time triallist.

This year is shaping up to be the most exciting duel of this century. Before the Tour I gave Pogacar the edge, because most of the mountain stages seemed to suit him well. When he unexpectedly lost time in stage 5 it looked bad, but since then he's been turning the tide.

After nine days I'm giving Pogacar a 55% chance to win the Tour. The Colombière and the ITT should suit him. The Joux-Plane can be tricky, but with that long, technical descent they might stay together there.

The queen stage over the Col de la Loze will probably be decisive. Whoever secures the yellow there should be able to defend it until Paris, although stage 20 is inviting for one last attempt. Hopefully it remains a great duel, not ruined by a crash or other kind of bad luck.

Zoetemelk finished second six times in the Tour, but he did win one time though and had one win the Vuelta. Poulidor also won one Vuelta.

Poulidor finished second three times in the Tour and five times third!

I guess why people refer to Poulidor as the eternal second... is because he was just a few years ahead of Zoetemelk, even though Zoetemelk has his own argument as well for the title.

Maybe because Poulidor was also French and in the shadow of Anquetil, even though Poulidor was probably more liked by fans. He became endearing to a lot of people. They rooted for him.

 

[Ulle97]

Thanks for the thread and a great OP. I think we are in for an enthralling contest. Yes, as good maybe even better than those other great duels of history mentioned.

I am probably biased but am starting to get the feeling that by the TT we might see this is a better Pog than we have seen before. Most riders don’t peak until mid / late 20s at least. Pog is two years younger than Vingegaard at just 24. Maybe Marie Blanque came too early but maybe he didn’t lose as much time as JV hoped as they tried again on stage 6 but it backfired?

I don’t buy many of the supposed truths about Vingegaard’s advantages. These are beginning to sound like excuses?

Vingegaard was supposed to have an advantage in the heat - now debunked. I also don’t buy that Pogacar is weaker in the 3rd week. Plus with his interrupted prep due to his LBL crash Pogacar will most likely get stronger towards the 3rd week - but I am not sure Vingegaard will? He was devastating at the Dauphine but so far a little underwhelming.

I think Pogacar looks most likely today. Let’s see what happens on the Grand Colombier on Friday.

The whole rhetoric of Pogacar struggling in the heat has been a bit inconclusive to me. I understand on Granon and Hautacam he struggled which happened to be on very hot days.
There is sufficient evidence to say that he likes the hot weather as he has delivered amazing performances in such weather also.

I think it's more plausible to believe that he didn't ride efficiently in the first half of the 2022 Tour and got worked over repeatedly by Vingegaard and a very strong Jumbo team.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Thanks for the thread and a great OP. I think we are in for an enthralling contest. Yes, as good maybe even better than those other great duels of history mentioned.

I am probably biased but am starting to get the feeling that by the TT we might see this is a better Pog than we have seen before. Most riders don’t peak until mid / late 20s at least. Pog is two years younger than Vingegaard at just 24. Maybe Marie Blanque came too early but maybe he didn’t lose as much time as JV hoped as they tried again on stage 6 but it backfired?

I don’t buy many of the supposed truths about Vingegaard’s advantages. These are beginning to sound like excuses?

Vingegaard was supposed to have an advantage in the heat - now debunked. I also don’t buy that Pogacar is weaker in the 3rd week. Plus with his interrupted prep due to his LBL crash Pogacar will most likely get stronger towards the 3rd week - but I am not sure Vingegaard will? He was devastating at the Dauphine but so far a little underwhelming.

I think Pogacar looks most likely today. Let’s see what happens on the Grand Colombier on Friday.

I agree with anything except one thing. By no means, Vingegaard has been underwhelming this Tour. What he did to Yates and company in Dauphiné, it is the same he is doing in the Tour. When Vingegaard attacks, he has shown he can put easily 1 minute in a distance of 1/2 km to the "humans". The only difference in the Tour compared to Dauphiné is Pogacar (as we all know, his only rival).