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Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

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It really is remarkable that we are seeing such a close duel for the 2nd (3rd if you want) year in a row. I stay wary on how this rivalry will develop just because two riders dueling each other for years with nobody having a clear upper hand would go so much against the history of cycling. Right now I'm really not able to call who of the two will end up the more succesful gc rider and I can see both of them fighting for Tour wins for years to come, but as written in the OP, that would be completely unprecedented.

As for this Tour, I want to remain cautious. I think you shouldn't overreact to a rider gaining 8 seconds, but I have to really remind myself on that. You just cannot help but notice that the momentum swung from a rider who dominated a preparation race a month ago to a guy who came into the Tour with practically 0 racing in over 2 months. You would expect the momentum of those riders to kinda swing from the former to the latter. The fact this has already happened in week one cannot be a good sign for Vingegaard.

But then again, it was 8 seconds. Vingegaard only needs to have a good TT and stick to Pogacar's wheel for the remaining race and he wins. Stages 6 and 9 can easily be put down to him needlessly emptying himself on the Tourmalet and slightly bad legs yesterday. Do I actually believe that's what happened? I don't know, but I simply cannot ignore just how badly Pogacar got demolished on stage 5 as if it never happened. I have never seen the momentum swing from that kind of dominance to the other rider being straight up better within one day. I cannot get that out of my mind.
 
Yep, Froome up the Zoncolan in 2018 was an eye opener. Recovering from a crash for 2 weeks then wham! Winning on the Zoncolan. Has a certain panache about it but was just the prelude to "the dash for glory".
I mean if we make the comparison to Froome 2018, the only big performance swing within one day was from winning on the Zoncolan on stage 14 to being nowhere on stage 15. While that didn't make any sense to me either (and still doesn't today) it was very different to Vingegaard and Pogacar this Tour who were way ahead of their competition on both days but had a completely different power dynamic within their duel. It's not like one was great one day but nowhere the other, like Froome in 2018 (or Landis in 2006 for that matter).
 
I mean if we make the comparison to Froome 2018, the only big performance swing within one day was from winning on the Zoncolan on stage 14 to being nowhere on stage 15. While that didn't make any sense to me either (and still doesn't today) it was very different to Vingegaard and Pogacar this Tour who were way ahead of their competition on both days but had a completely different power dynamic within their duel. It's not like one was great one day but nowhere the other, like Froome in 2018 (or Landis in 2006 for that matter).
Yeah, it not exactly the same. Now we have 2 guys who are head and shoulders above the rest and fighting it out. Pogacar's turn around from stages 5 to 6 is certainly unusual - from dropping time, to going up the Tourmalet in record speed then still having enough fuel left to attack and win on the last climb. I wonder if we will ever learn what happened on stage 5.
 
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Here's what I expect for the rest of the (GC) race:

I expect Pogacar to win stage 13 (Grand Colombier) with 30 seconds to Vingegaard, + 4 bonus seconds, putting him in yellow by 17 seconds.

On stage 14 I expect Vingegaard to drop Pogacar on the descent from Joux Plane, and take back 5 seconds, leaving his deficit to Pogacar at 12, as a break will have taken the bonus seconds on the line.

On stage 15 (Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc) I expect Pogacar to win the stage with Vingegaard in his wheel, increasing his gap to 16 seconds.

On stage 16 (ITT) I expect Vingegaard to beat Pogacar by 10 seconds, decreasing the gap to 6 seconds.

On stage 17 (Courchevel) I expect Vingegaard to drop Pogacar above 2.000 meters altitude on De La Loze, and win the stage by 50 seconds, putting him in yellow by 48 seconds (incl. bonus seconds).

On stage 20 (Fellering) I expect Pogacar to attack desperately up both Petit Ballon and Platzerwasel, and eventually he is able to create a gap, but only takes back 20+4 seconds on the line.

Vingegaard wins the Tour by 24 seconds :)
 
As I've already posted yesterday we must only hope no one will suffer an accident, injury, or big tactical mistake.

This is going to be really thrilling.
Well I'm fine with someone making a big tactical mistake (wrong side of split, napping when echelons form, napping on an ambush stage, etc), that's just racing. Crash/injury/opi-omi, I'm totally with you.

Thrilling could be an understatement!!
 
I expect Pog to win but I hope it stays in the balance till stage 20 just to maximise the crushing disappointment for Jumbo.
This is so fascinating, the hate Jumbo gets when for two Tours in a row they're making the race to try and win against a richer team and an (on paper) better rider. What are they to do? Just let Pogacar win?

I can understand people rooting for the underdog, or against a team that makes the race really boring, but neither of them is true in this case.
 
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Teddy and Skeletor are very likely (barring crash, illness or clinical stuff) to finish in top2 of the 3rd consecutive Tour - a feat no pair of riders have ever done. This is Armstrong vs Ullrich like consistency. The rivalry is already legendary and those guys are still only 24 and 26 yo (so not necessarily done soon). Remco should finally snap the streak next year...or he will choose the Giro instead.
 
I mean if we make the comparison to Froome 2018, the only big performance swing within one day was from winning on the Zoncolan on stage 14 to being nowhere on stage 15. While that didn't make any sense to me either (and still doesn't today) it was very different to Vingegaard and Pogacar this Tour who were way ahead of their competition on both days but had a completely different power dynamic within their duel. It's not like one was great one day but nowhere the other, like Froome in 2018 (or Landis in 2006 for that matter).
But Froome was dropped by 20 riders in a 1-2 km climb to win Zoncolan 2 or 3 days after. And after Zoncolan, he dropped 1.30 minutes, being worse again than 20 riders. In the last week, we all know what happened. A discussion we already had in another part of the forum but without a doubt one of the most awkward performance by a gt rider.
 
Teddy and Skeletor are very likely (barring crash, illness or clinical stuff) to finish in top2 of the 3rd consecutive Tour - a feat no pair of riders have ever done. This is Armstrong vs Ullrich like consistency. The rivalry is already legendary and those guys are still only 24 and 26 yo (so not necessarily done soon). Remco should finally snap the streak next year...or he will choose the Giro instead.
Problem for Pogacar somehow is, the world notices his performances indeed, but still anyone talks about Ayuso and Christen.

So, „OK, Pogacar is good, but Ayuso will be better, and Christen will be better than Ayuso“… Kind of disturbs the pleasure we could get out of Pog‘s performances.
 
Here's what I expect for the rest of the (GC) race:

I expect Pogacar to win stage 13 (Grand Colombier) with 30 seconds to Vingegaard, + 4 bonus seconds, putting him in yellow by 17 seconds.

On stage 14 I expect Vingegaard to drop Pogacar on the descent from Joux Plane, and take back 5 seconds, leaving his deficit to Pogacar at 12, as a break will have taken the bonus seconds on the line.

On stage 15 (Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc) I expect Pogacar to win the stage with Vingegaard in his wheel, increasing his gap to 16 seconds.

On stage 16 (ITT) I expect Vingegaard to beat Pogacar by 10 seconds, decreasing the gap to 6 seconds.

On stage 17 (Courchevel) I expect Vingegaard to drop Pogacar above 2.000 meters altitude on De La Loze, and win the stage by 50 seconds, putting him in yellow by 48 seconds (incl. bonus seconds).

On stage 20 (Fellering) I expect Pogacar to attack desperately up both Petit Ballon and Platzerwasel, and eventually he is able to create a gap, but only takes back 20+4 seconds on the line.

Vingegaard wins the Tour by 24 seconds :)
No spoiler alert? :)
Seriously, if Jumbo push Pogacar on stage 12 which has bonifications and is like a short one day classic, it might help Vingegaard on stage 13 up Grand Colombier. Weather is forecast to be cooler for stage 12 and hot again Friday and the weekend.
 
No spoiler alert? :)
Seriously, if Jumbo push Pogacar on stage 12 which has bonifications and is like a short one day classic, it might help Vingegaard on stage 13 up Grand Colombier. Weather is forecast to be cooler for stage 12 and hot again Friday and the weekend.
Given that classics terrain (perhaps even a short one) is a proper Pogacar territory, I think that by pushing on this stage they will hurt Vingegaard (and themselves) more.
 
No spoiler alert? :)
Seriously, if Jumbo push Pogacar on stage 12 which has bonifications and is like a short one day classic, it might help Vingegaard on stage 13 up Grand Colombier. Weather is forecast to be cooler for stage 12 and hot again Friday and the weekend.

I don't think any of the GC teams are interested in spending significant energy on stage 12, with tough mountain stages coming up the next 3 days... I view it as a certain break away stage for the puncheurs.
 
Given that classics terrain (perhaps even a short one) is a proper Pogacar territory, I think that by pushing on this stage they will hurt Vingegaard (and themselves) more.

Not gonna happen IMO.

Sure some secondary GC captain out of top 10 may try something on stage 12 (as long as it is not a frenchman, they want to win stage 13), but there is no way Jumbo or UAE will - I don't even think WvA or Trentin get leeway to go for the stage.

The teams want to keep their powder dry for the next 3 days.
 
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No spoiler alert? :)
Seriously, if Jumbo push Pogacar on stage 12 which has bonifications and is like a short one day classic, it might help Vingegaard on stage 13 up Grand Colombier. Weather is forecast to be cooler for stage 12 and hot again Friday and the weekend.

I agree with YavorD, how do they push Pogacar without pushing Vingegaard even more? They have noone to attack him with bar Vingegaar himself, and he surely won't want to try to go for all out war on hilly terrain against Pogacar of all people.
 
After years of underwhelming GT fights is really good to have a proper rivalry once again between two super talented GT riders and given Pogačar and Vingegård's age I think we will have 4 or 5 more years of this, though I expect few more riders entering into the mix during the next years like Ayuso, possibly Remco and perhaps someone that we don't even know about.

I do think that its important to make a distinction between the two though, Vingegård is a stage racer that actually needs to win Grand Tours in order to achieve a legendary status while Pogačar is an all-round beast that is on track to become this century most successful monument rider so he is becoming a legend one away or the other.
 
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It really is remarkable that we are seeing such a close duel for the 2nd (3rd if you want) year in a row. I stay wary on how this rivalry will develop just because two riders dueling each other for years with nobody having a clear upper hand would go so much against the history of cycling. Right now I'm really not able to call who of the two will end up the more succesful gc rider and I can see both of them fighting for Tour wins for years to come, but as written in the OP, that would be completely unprecedented.

As for this Tour, I want to remain cautious. I think you shouldn't overreact to a rider gaining 8 seconds, but I have to really remind myself on that. You just cannot help but notice that the momentum swung from a rider who dominated a preparation race a month ago to a guy who came into the Tour with practically 0 racing in over 2 months. You would expect the momentum of those riders to kinda swing from the former to the latter. The fact this has already happened in week one cannot be a good sign for Vingegaard.

But then again, it was 8 seconds. Vingegaard only needs to have a good TT and stick to Pogacar's wheel for the remaining race and he wins. Stages 6 and 9 can easily be put down to him needlessly emptying himself on the Tourmalet and slightly bad legs yesterday. Do I actually believe that's what happened? I don't know, but I simply cannot ignore just how badly Pogacar got demolished on stage 5 as if it never happened. I have never seen the momentum swing from that kind of dominance to the other rider being straight up better within one day. I cannot get that out of my mind.
2006 Vuelta?
 
"The" sportswashing team? Surely there's more than one. Political/national sportswashing teams: UAE. AlUla (Saudi). Bahrain. Israel. Astana. Noxious industries: Ineos. Total Energies. Maybe Uno-X depedending on your point of view. Surely there's more. One quickly runs out of riders to root for, and with Jumbo looking to exit, perhaps that team will soon find themselves in sportswashing mode too.
Yes, Pog is riding for the sportswashing team. That there are many of them in all sports doesn't change that fact. The discussion is Pog vs Vingo. So for me... Vingo FTW!
 
I follow cycling since the 98, and this is probably the mightiest duel I've seen.
Other contenders would be (with pros and cons) :

ProsCons
Armstrong vs Ulrich 2003Field scene
ITT and Tourmalet
Could Armstrong lose ?
Bianchi
I loved Jan and disliked Armstrong because he was always winning (I am french therefore I must only like losers)
Ulrich sick in the Alps
Beloki :'(
(god damn Luz Ardiden, how can you be so strong all of a sudden ?)
Rain and fall
Contador vs Schleck 2010Contador attacking style
Andy youth and strength (also new contender approaching, and loser from last year therefore I rooted for him)
Stop waiting your brother for the love of god
Chain controversy
Schelck TT being horrendous
Froome vs Quintana 2015Moviestar tactics
Can someone beat sky please ?
Movistar tactics
Having to watch Froome climbing style
Sky train
Duel felt doomed
Roglic vs Pogacar 2020Many sprints on top of climbs where Roglic was beatable for once
This kid is something else
Jumbo' faces on the ITT
Was not a duel at first because we were "sure" Roglic would win.

Sad for my boy Roglic
Pogacar vs Vingegaard 2022Pog taking everything first week
Cobbles war
Granon masterclass from Jumbo (almost first time a 1-2 is correctly done)
Pogacar attacking EVERY single climb (even going in the breakaway on a flat stage when Sagan challenged him to)
Lots of punchy attacks to watch
Seing G crawling back after all of those attacks
Vingegaard is OP (Hautacam)
I supported Pog (I now consider myself citizen of the world therefore I can support winners)
Vingegaard vs Pogacar 2023Pog directly in white so I don't have to see that UAE National champ jersey.
Pog IS stronger than ever
Vingegaard feels stronger than in 2022
Every stage is raced as we dreamt of. (who would have bet money on Vingegaard attacking on Tourmalet, seriously)
Pog coming for revenge
Vingegaard not looking afraid in ITW
I am told there are still 12 stages ?
They make other pros look like amateurs.