Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[Cookster15]

IMO Pogacar is the rider who has superior anaerobic reserves. Vingegaard's strength is aerobic which manifests itself on long, high climbs and TTs. But the shorter the effort the greater the anaerobic component. This is why Vingegaard doesn't win as much as Pogacar.

Before 2024 an argument could be made that Vingegaard was the rider with better 3rd week recovery, better on long hard climbs and better at altitude. But after following the 2024 Giro (queen stage 15) and the Tour I don't think this meme is still relevant.

But at last we will get a taste of what level both riders are at this week.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

IMO Pogacar is the rider who has superior anaerobic reserves. Vingegaard's strength is aerobic which manifests itself on long, high climbs and TTs. But the shorter the effort the greater the anaerobic component. This is why Vingegaard doesn't win as much as Pogacar.

Before 2024 an argument could be made that Vingegaard was the rider with better 3rd week recovery, better on long hard climbs and better at altitude. But after following the 2024 Giro (queen stage 15) and the Tour I don't think this meme is still relevant.

But at last we will get a taste of what level both riders are at this week.

Pogacar has great anaerobic power/capacity for a GC guy and thats why his attacks are explosive and his finish fast. Vingo is an aerobic monster but so is Pog. Cant wait to see their battles and hopefully no crashes to spoil the party!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

But at last we will get a taste of what level both riders are at this week.

This forum also seems to also have the good sensations. I've definitely seen a marked increase in the back-and-forth between the Pog-Vingo-Remco-Rog camps. Looks like the fan bases have timed their peaks nicely. We'll see where everyone is next week, but I expect a good show.

 

[Gratemans]

How the Cyclingnews board will be watching the duel every mountain stage in this year's TdF

I love this gif 🤣

 

[red_flanders]

This forum also seems to also have the good sensations. I've definitely seen a marked increase in the back-and-forth between the Pog-Vingo-Remco-Rog camps. Looks like the fan bases have timed their peaks nicely. We'll see where everyone is next week, but I expect a good show.

I hope the other mods' sensations are strong. Not sure I'm up for a WWF cage-match!

 

[HashRouge]

Pogacar hate? Just a conservative estimate but I think a popularity poll among the general public would result in 90% for Pogacar vs. 10% for Vingegaard

Maybe not in Denmark though.

I think Vingegaard is becoming more popular. It's a side effect of Pogacar being so dominant in 2024 - some people don't like dominance, so they will then shift their support to the challenger. I think we saw the same thing in 2022 - Pog had won the previous two tours, and 2021 wasn't especially exciting, so lots of people were hoping Visma/ Jonas would manage to beat him. But then after 2022, when Pogacar was beaten quite heavily but was still fun to watch and kept animating stages, quite a bit of support swung back towards him. I'm not sure he'll ever have quite such warm public support as he did during the 2023 Tour - I remember Geraint Thomas and Luke Rowe saying something like "Jonas is winning the Tour, Pog is winning hearts and minds".

 

[Peyroteo94]

I love these mind games.

Confident Vingegaard before Dauphiné: 'I have the edge over Pogacar in one area' | Flashscore.com

Even though UAE's Tadej Pogacar has looked almost unbeatable for most of the season, Team Visma's Jonas Vingegaard is convinced that he can beat the Slovenian favorite at the Tour de France later in the year.

www.flashscore.com

 

[Froome]

I love these mind games.

Confident Vingegaard before Dauphiné: 'I have the edge over Pogacar in one area' | Flashscore.com

Even though UAE's Tadej Pogacar has looked almost unbeatable for most of the season, Team Visma's Jonas Vingegaard is convinced that he can beat the Slovenian favorite at the Tour de France later in the year.

www.flashscore.com

W/kg.

 

[fenns]

With Pogacar there is evidence he was a much better rider in 2024 than previous years - and has continued that form into 2025.

With Vingegaard we need to take it on faith that for 2024 Tour he was not as good as previous 2 years - despite beating Remco by 3 minutes - and the rest of the field by 15 minutes.

Of course he might have improved since 2022-24 - but at the moment it's just talk.

I would say that if either of Pog or Ving can win the Dauphine by a minute they will go on to with the Tour.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I agree. But people can also be cajoled into actions that aren't in their best interest, and trying to make that happen isn't necessarily a bad tactic. Remco does a lot of that, probably to his detriment. Roglic isn't going to give in to badgering, for example, but language, body language, etc. are all valid bike racing tools, IMO.

As Roglic fan, I didn't like this. I do think Pogacar was trying to manipulate Remco into liking him, viewing him as the leader, etc., but I could be wrong. Remco definitely should be afraid of Roglic.

A Roglic fan here too. Apart from that...to me it's just Netflix gossip stuff. I'm more interested in the core cycling itself. Ofcourse Slaying the Badger is different; well-crafted portrayals of characters, including the documentary, so I'm a little more into that (also due to that year was my first among the crowds at the roads)
Nevertheless, I do not see those puns making Pogi slower or faster compared to Vinge.

 

[theyoungest]

I would say that if either of Pog or Ving can win the Dauphine by a minute they will go on to with the Tour.

The final week of the Tour is in 7 weeks, plus this is a one week race. I expect Pogi to win this Dauphiné, and of course he's the favourite for the Tour, but in a one week race he almost certainly has the edge over Vingegaard.

 

[theyoungest]

A Roglic fan here too. Apart from that...to me it's just Netflix gossip stuff. I'm more interested in the core cycling itself. Ofcourse Slaying the Badger is different; well-crafted portrayals of characters, including the documentary, so I'm a little more into that (also due to that year was my first among the crowds at the roads)
Nevertheless, I do not see those puns making Pogi slower or faster compared to Vinge.

Netflix creates story lines. It's not really about the actual sport, it's cycling for dummies with some gossip and drama added on top. It worked in Drive to Survive, in terms of viewing numbers, but I think there could actually be a market for a cycling series with a little more depth and truth to it. After all the documentaries created by teams themselves which you can watch on Youtube are often better than the Netflix series, and they have decent viewing numbers (which the Netflix series does not).

 

[P4rthen0n]

With Pogacar there is evidence he was a much better rider in 2024 than previous years - and has continued that form into 2025.

With Vingegaard we need to take it on faith that for 2024 Tour he was not as good as previous 2 years - despite beating Remco by 3 minutes - and the rest of the field by 15 minutes.

Of course he might have improved since 2022-24 - but at the moment it's just talk.

I would say that if either of Pog or Ving can win the Dauphine by a minute they will go on to with the Tour.

Are we sure Vingegaard wasn't putting up better numbers in 2024 Tour than previous years?
To me it seemed like Vingegaard was super strong, but Pogacar 2024 had a massive jump in performance compared to 2023, and that was the deciding factor.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I love these mind games.

Confident Vingegaard before Dauphiné: 'I have the edge over Pogacar in one area' | Flashscore.com

Even though UAE's Tadej Pogacar has looked almost unbeatable for most of the season, Team Visma's Jonas Vingegaard is convinced that he can beat the Slovenian favorite at the Tour de France later in the year.

www.flashscore.com

Good that the suspence is rising. Hopefully the actual racing will deliver.

 

[fenns]

Are we sure Vingegaard wasn't putting up better numbers in 2024 Tour than previous years?
To me it seemed like Vingegaard was super strong, but Pogacar 2024 had a massive jump in performance compared to 2023, and that was the deciding factor.

yes it's possible 2024 Ving was better than the 2023 version - even with the Spring crash. - hence his crushing of the field other than Pog and Remco

 

[Potomac]

Script writing 101 tells us that the winner of the Dauphine duel will look unbeatable for the tour and the loser should hang up his gloves.

Then we will be amazed at the never say die comeback of the Dauphine loser when they win the Tour with a heroic attack up the slopes of the Montmartre on the final day.

Point is....Vingo and Pog should do everything to finish behind each other at Dauphine.

 

[AmRacer]

yes it's possible 2024 Ving was better than the 2023 version - even with the Spring crash. - hence his crushing of the field other than Pog and Remco

Jonas crushed Remco

 

[theyoungest]

Are we sure Vingegaard wasn't putting up better numbers in 2024 Tour than previous years?
To me it seemed like Vingegaard was super strong, but Pogacar 2024 had a massive jump in performance compared to 2023, and that was the deciding factor.

We're sure. He had lost muscle mass after his crash in Pais Vasco and subsequent hospitalisation. He was significantly lighter and couldn't push the same absolute power as the years before. There were one or two climbs where his relative power (W/kg) actually was pretty good, simply because he was so light, but overall his performance was just significantly worse. Remember just the year before he nearly caught Pogacar in the time trial.

It's somehow quite fashionable to underestimate Vingegaard's two Tour wins, but he mainly won them by being very strong indeed. And very consistent, something he wasn't last year.

 

[Bombarolo]

We're sure. He had lost muscle mass after his crash in Pais Vasco and subsequent hospitalisation. He was significantly lighter and couldn't push the same absolute power as the years before. There were one or two climbs where his relative power (W/kg) actually was pretty good, simply because he was so light, but overall his performance was just significantly worse. Remember just the year before he nearly caught Pogacar in the time trial.

It's somehow quite fashionable to underestimate Vingegaard's two Tour wins, but he mainly won them by being very strong indeed. And very consistent, something he wasn't last year.

This is true but post 2023 Pogacar is a completely different cyclist. You shouldn't use his previous years as a reference because again he is in a different level.

 

[theyoungest]

This is true but post 2023 Pogacar is a completely different cyclist. You shouldn't use his previous years as a reference because again he is in a different level.

Pogacar was clearly stronger than ever, but the argument "Vingegaard only beat him because he wasn't at his best... two years in a row" works both ways, of course. Vingegaard very much was not at his best last year, which was quite obvious to everyone but the staunchest Pogi fans. Where he normally should shine, in the third week, was where he even had trouble defending his second spot on GC.

 

[Rou]

Pogacar was clearly stronger than ever, but the argument "Vingegaard only beat him because he wasn't at his best... two years in a row" works both ways, of course. Vingegaard very much was not at his best last year, which was quite obvious to everyone but the staunchest Pogi fans. Where he normally should shine, in the third week, was where he even had trouble defending his second spot on GC.

If you want I can send you multiple proof that 2024 Vingegaard was by far the strongest he has ever been and significantly stronger than 2023?

 

[Extinction]

If you want I can send you multiple proof that 2024 Vingegaard was by far the strongest he has ever been and significantly stronger than 2023?

On the comeback from serious injury, however. If he was at his very best then, what does it say about his potential now? I fear a hydrogen bomb is about to explode.

 

[Rou]

On the comeback from serious injury, however. If he was at his very best then, what does it say for his potential now? I fear a hydrogen bomb is about to exploded.

I agree. The argument was that 2024 Vingegaard was weaker than 2023 which is objectively false. I am sure that without a crash he could have been closer to Pogacar.

 

[theyoungest]

If you want I can send you multiple proof that 2024 Vingegaard was by far the strongest he has ever been and significantly stronger than 2023?

I said, there are one or two climbs where he posted very good W/kg numbers, but given that his absolute power was lower, that's not the whole story. If you really believe that he was at his strongest ever last year, I'm sorry, but it's so obvious he was not. He was hanging by a thread in the final week. And it's also perfectly logical, with just 6 weeks or so of training.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I agree. The argument was that 2024 Vingegaard was weaker than 2023 which is objectively false. I am sure that without a crash he could have been closer to Pogacar.

This!