Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[AmRacer]

we've already got 2 which can be produced when necessary

Ving's crash in P-N and Pog overracing in the classics.

I don't think either can be used, it has been a long time since so both should be fully rested and prepared by now.

 

[James M]

People in general think Pog has easier win conditions to take the Dauphine vs Evenepoel and Vingegaard, despite both publicly stating that their numbers have never been better at this point (lower odds on the market than Strade).

Don't hate the player, hate the game. Im just being the good guy adding some perspective for you beautiful people, in case some few should get too surprised when the inivitable happen.

 

[Bombarolo]

Pogacar was clearly stronger than ever, but the argument "Vingegaard only beat him because he wasn't at his best... two years in a row" works both ways, of course. Vingegaard very much was not at his best last year, which was quite obvious to everyone but the staunchest Pogi fans. Where he normally should shine, in the third week, was where he even had trouble defending his second spot on GC.

I agree but in 2023 Pogacar wasn't as his usual best back then and he improved massively in his weak points since then.
So let's see how it goes.

 

[hayneplane]

The time to look back should stop now. Rehashing previous years and theoretical performance levels and relative injury impact is fun but ultimately can never deliver a real answer.

They are all claiming to be fit, firing and ready to go with no injury or illness issues and strong numbers in training.

Let’s strap in for the warm up act to round 5 of the greatest duel in Grand Tour GC history.

 

[Extinction]

View: https://youtu.be/Ld5hzf7zpD4?si=tQ22ctHprt4OIoof

 

[Lorzenz08]

View: https://youtu.be/Ld5hzf7zpD4?si=tQ22ctHprt4OIoof

5:43 ...

This means the numbers are probably out of this world but he doesnt want to jinx and say too much

 

[Extinction]

5:43 ...

This means the numbers are probably out of this world but he doesnt want to jinx and say too much

He's ready for sure. Numbers only matter though in six weeks.

 

[Cycling111]

5:43 ...

This means the numbers are probably out of this world but he doesnt want to jinx and say too much

Yeah, but veryone says every year that they are happy with their numbers

 

[kamaveli]

I'm pretty sure that Vingegaard has higher vO2max but Pogacar has higher max power and their ftp is roughly the same. So it all depends on small details like how their teammates are able to save them, how they are able to refuel/-hydrate during stages and how well they recover from efforts and even sleep during the race.
It may not seem like it, but I believe the difference between winning and losing is in small margins.

 

[Boehmand]

Before 2024 an argument could be made that Vingegaard was the rider with better 3rd week recovery, better on long hard climbs and better at altitude. But after following the 2024 Giro (queen stage 15) and the Tour I don't think this meme is still relevant.

But at last we will get a taste of what level both riders are at this week.

I think we should be careful using 2024 as a guide, as Vingegaard was clearly nowhere near his peak level, it may just be Pogacar looked better week 3 and at high altitude because Vingegaard was bad.

But you may also be right, it would definitely be something Pogacar worked on improving after 2023 - just like you can bet your arse Vingegaard has working on being more explosive, so he can stick with Pogacar when he goes.

Also I don't think we get much of a taste this week - I think Pogacar will beat Vingegaard easily because he comes into the race in better condition, while Vingegaard is timing his peak for week 2 at the Tour.

We may even see Visma ride for Jorgenson IMO, to not put too much pressure on Vingegaard to match Pogacar this week.

I hope I am wrong, I want the action - but at this point that is my thinking.

 

[Lorzenz08]

View: https://youtu.be/Ld5hzf7zpD4?si=tQ22ctHprt4OIoof

Pogi also talks about how he must be careful with his mentality of always wanting to win.

And I think he says that especially because Vingegaard has the opposite mentality and is extremely cautious, he only spend energy when necessary.

That is a very important factor if they are very close in level. The fact that Pogi wants to be more calculated is a great thing.

 

[Extinction]

Pogi also talks about how he must be careful with his mentality of always wanting to win.

And I think he says that especially because Vingegaard has the opposite mentality and is extremely cautious, he only spend energy when necessary.

That is a very important factor if they are very close in level. The fact that Pogi wants to be more calculated is a great thing.

Sure, Pog is afraid of blowing up again at the Tour. Last year he was so dominant it didn't matter. But Jonas was back from serious injury. This year Pog knows he'll be up against the Jonas who could destroy him if he's not careful.

 

[fenns]

Last year he broke Vingegaard by repeated attacks early in the race forcing the Dane to respond. His aggression is his great strength.

 

[Gigs_98]

For the love of god please just let these two get through all the flat stages of the Dauphine and the Tour without crashing. This stage already got me so hyped for this battle.

 

[RedheadDane]

For the love of god please just let these two get through all the flat stages of the Dauphine and the Tour without crashing. This stage already got me so hyped for this battle.

Attacking, and thus being ahead of the peloton, is a good way to avoid being caught up in any mass crashes.

 

[fenns]

Great finale to the stage. Obvious both guys have a desire to show who is the boss. Pog getting a little bit of revenge for Ving outsprinting him at Le Lioran last year.

 

[tobydawq]

Great finale to the stage. Obvious both guys have a desire to show who is the boss. Pog getting a little bit of revenge for Ving outsprinting him at Le Lioran last year.

He got 6 Ws the rest of the race, I think he got his revenge all right already there.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The rivalry is back with a bang! And during a stage few expected to deliver. It's not the Tour but I definitely expect an all-in battle in this race. Jonas is eager to race hard: he said it before the race and showed today. And Tadej is Tadej, he won't be holding back either. Good to see this rivalry back after almost 11 months. Should be an interesting summer (hopefully no crashes).

 

[Netserk]

If you want I can send you multiple proof that 2024 Vingegaard was by far the strongest he has ever been and significantly stronger than 2023?

Adjusted for chronic tailwind, Vingegaard was weaker in 2024 than the two previous years.

 

[Red Rick]

Adjusted for chronic tailwind, Vingegaard was weaker in 2024 than the two previous years.

We should make AfCT a thing, really.

 

[Froome]

Adjusted for chronic tailwind, Vingegaard was weaker in 2024 than the two previous years.

I see what you did there, and i agree.

 

[Gratemans]

Just saw a post-race inteview with Jonas, and he looked.. I don't know, excited?
Usually he seems more reluctant in interviews (as are a lot of pro-athletes) but here he came across like he was just chatting to his neighbour or something. Very relaxed and open.

Could also be because he doesn't race much so most of the times we see interviews with him in the Tour, which of course is anything but a relaxed environment.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Just saw a post-race inteview with Jonas, and he looked.. I don't know, excited?
Usually he seems more reluctant in interviews (as are a lot of pro-athletes) but here he came across like he was just chatting to his neighbour or something. Very relaxed and open.

Could also be because he doesn't race much so most of the times we see interviews with him in the Tour, which of course is anything but a relaxed environment.

The old version was utilized. This is a new 2025 model. Enthusiastic, talkative and attacking even on mole hills. Pogi should be afraid, very afraid.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Adjusted for chronic tailwind, Vingegaard was weaker in 2024 than the two previous years.

Yeah, climate change is a real problem in cycling. Increased speed, more crashes. Hopefully the peleton realizes that electric motors won't help in this case...

 

[tobydawq]

The old version was utilized. This is a new 2025 model. Enthusiastic, talkative and attacking even on mole hills. Pogi should be afraid, very afraid.