Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[VayaVayaVaya]

I might have missed the discussion; what’s the consensus on 2024 level vs 2025 level?

Reasons to believe 2024 level was higher:

• PdBF - best Pantana by 3 or 4 minutes
• Pogacar to Vingegaard gap was 6 minutes vs 4
• Gap to 5th was bigger (20 minutes vs 17)
• Influencer watts calculations are higher overall
• Final 2025 stages were underwhelming with no devastating attacks of watt bombs

Reasons to believe 2025 level was higher:

• Pogacar didn’t do the Giro first and Vingegaard didn’t crash horribly a couple months before, so logically they should have been in better shape
• Vingegaard said he was in the shape of his life
• Gap to 3rd was bigger (11 minutes vs 9)
• Gap to 10th was bigger (32 minutes vs 27)
• 2025 was raced much harder overall average speed of 43kph vs 41kph)
• The Tour was so hard Pogacar got depressed
• Ventoux record smashed

 

[SHAD0W93]

Did he talk or write about that? Or is that your interpretation of what caused his problems?

Ullrich has talked about it being hard losing to Armstrong by a lot, especially when he felt like he was in amazing shape in either 2000 or 2001. In addition to his other issues and the environment he was brought up in.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@VayaVayaVaya I would say Pogacar's first two weeks of the Tour were around peak 2024 level: the flat TT, Hautacam (demolition in tough weather conditions, even if not PdB numbers) and Peyreguades. Ventoux was great by both Pogi and Vingo. The Alps MTF performances were undewhelming (fatigue felt by both but probably also due to tactical reasons). OTOH Pogi's first half of Tour 2024 wasn't as thermonuclear as the second half either. All in all I would say Pogi slightly below 2024 (he had better level at the end last year) while Vingo similar (despite strong mountain performances he underperformed in two stages so that's why I can't say he was better this year).

 

[snipeheem]

@VayaVayaVaya I would say Pogacar's first two weeks of the Tour were around peak 2024 level: the flat TT, Hautacam (demolition in tough weather conditions, even if not PdB numbers) and Peyreguades. Ventoux was great by both Pogi and Vingo. The Alps MTF performances were undewhelming (fatigue felt by both but probably also due to tactical reasons). OTOH Pogi's first half of Tour 2024 wasn't as thermonuclear as the second half either. All in all I would say Pogi slightly below 2024 (he had better level at the end last year) while Vingo similar (despite strong mountain performances he underperformed in two stages so that's why I can't say he was better this year).

How far was pogi on Hautacam? Compared to PdB

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Vingo's quote sums up it pretty well:

I think that for me, and maybe also for Tadej, the Tour de France is so big that the teams that have a candidate for victory want them to be there even if we didn't want to go.

"We have to be there even if we didn't want to go": Jonas Vingegaard confirms just how important is Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar wasn't really challenged by anyone for his last two Tour de France titles. Thus the Slovenian is already at 4 yellow jerseys, and the number could've been much higher if it wasn't for Jo...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'm sure I've heard something similar from Tadej recently. The Tour is a must for them, even if they don't want to go.

6th consecutive Pogigaard/Vingecar top2 at the Tour: loading in progress...
BTW it's unbelievable that during the next Tour they still will be only 27 and 29 yo.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingo's quote sums up it pretty well:

I think that for me, and maybe also for Tadej, the Tour de France is so big that the teams that have a candidate for victory want them to be there even if we didn't want to go.

"We have to be there even if we didn't want to go": Jonas Vingegaard confirms just how important is Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar wasn't really challenged by anyone for his last two Tour de France titles. Thus the Slovenian is already at 4 yellow jerseys, and the number could've been much higher if it wasn't for Jo...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'm sure I've heard something similar from Tadej recently. The Tour is a must for them, even if they don't want to go.

6th consecutive Pogigaard/Vingecar top2 at the Tour: loading in progress...
BTW it's unbelievable that during the next Tour they still will be only 27 and 29 yo.

It seems both will race the TdF again. Let's see if Vingegaard will try Giro-Tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling/hate-to-write-riders-off-but-jonas-vingegaard-has-reached-his-ceiling-french-ex-pros-claim-tadej-pogacar-is-without-clear-rival-heading-into-2026

 

[Netserk]

While I hope that 2026 won't be like 2025, I do think it's a fair assessment after this year.

 

[Peyroteo94]

While I hope that 2026 won't be like 2025, I do think it's a fair assessment after this year.

Despite being a huge Pogacar fan, I like Vingegaard (a lot) but I think his days as a future TdF winner (for the third time) are gone. He is clearly the top rider I see thinking more about retirement and probably will not race after 2028. It's obviously just a feeling but I think Trine will not let him race much more time.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It seems both will race the TdF again. Let's see if Vingegaard will try Giro-Tour.

He likely will so Giro+Tour for Vingo in 2026. He wants to get the GT set and then less pressure at the Tour ( but also harder to reach top shape, depending on Giro competition).

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Vingegaard is not good enough to be a consistant rival of Pogacar but he is good enough to always be a threat to him. We cannot disregard that on the majority of mountain stages last year Pogacar was not able to drop Vingegaard and as long as thats the case Pogacar will always be in danger of losing yellow due to a crash/a bad day/etc. while not being capable of easily regaining the lead. As long as this is true Pogacar vs Vingegaard will remain a major talking point and rightfully so.

 

[Extinction]

I think Vingegaard is not good enough to be a consistant rival of Pogacar but he is good enough to always be a threat to him. We cannot disregard that on the majority of mountain stages last year Pogacar was not able to drop Vingegaard and as long as thats the case Pogacar will always be in danger of losing yellow due to a crash/a bad day/etc. while not being capable of easily regaining the lead. As long as this is true Pogacar vs Vingegaard will remain a major talking point and rightfully so.

But, as we saw, and according to the gurus who are inside, when the others are on the limit, he is still in his training mode. Then ...

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think Vingegaard is not good enough to be a consistant rival of Pogacar but he is good enough to always be a threat to him. We cannot disregard that on the majority of mountain stages last year Pogacar was not able to drop Vingegaard and as long as thats the case Pogacar will always be in danger of losing yellow due to a crash/a bad day/etc. while not being capable of easily regaining the lead. As long as this is true Pogacar vs Vingegaard will remain a major talking point and rightfully so.

I still think the gap to Pogacar is getting and bigger and bigger so next year, I don't even think Vingegaard will be able to follow Pogacar on short hills like he did in 2024 (San Luca) and 2025