Volta ao Algarve 2022 (February 16-20)

[limak_]

His helmet confirms that

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Evenepoel didn't have the legs to win the final sprint. He himself indicated that he still felt the efforts of the time trial. That's why he let it go. So he could celebrate his victory.

Yet we have seen in both Valencia and the Algarve that Evenepoel is not a climber.... and never will be. He can limit the damage on strength and power. Against subtop climbers and pocket climbers. But against riders who combine power, strenght, endurance and explosiveness uphill, he will usually fall short. This concerns types such as Pogacar and Roglic. Maybe Pidcock in one or two years. But Roglic has gradually had his best time and will no longer be a match for Evenepoel in a few years .

So I think that in the future, and only in the Tour de France, Evenepoel will be able to compete for the podium, but it will be very difficult to beat Pogacar (Roglic, Pidcock). And even more difficult in the Giro and the Vuelta where the climbing is harder.

What Evenepoel can do is hit hard on hilly terrain. Of course he takes the risk to pay the bill for it later. Yet if his attack from afar fails. But then riders like Pogacar and Roglic, with their best "domestiques", have to react. Not sure if they always will or can. Also not sure the peloton will also keep their legs still and just watch the favorite or the man in the leader's jersey.
Evenepoel's only chance in a big Tour is to keep attacking on hilly terrain or in the middle mountains.... and hope for enough time trial kilometers.

 

[Andre]

In one year or two Remco will be the best climber in the peloton.

 

[houtdffan]

In one year or two Remco will be the best climber in the peloton.

Possibly on climbs <8%. But he seems to be one who struggles on the very steep climbs.

As I said before, he is basically an Ullrich/Indurain clone. Big time diesel on the climbs. Once he gets his power going, he is tough to beat. However, he will struggle on the very steep climbs (see Ullrich ALWAYS losing big time on ADH)

 

[Big Doopie]

Evenepoel didn't have the legs to win the final sprint. He himself indicated that he still felt the efforts of the time trial. That's why he let it go. So he could celebrate his victory.

Yet we have seen in both Valencia and the Algarve that Evenepoel is not a climber.... and never will be. He can limit the damage on strength and power. Against subtop climbers and pocket climbers. But against riders who combine power, strenght, endurance and explosiveness uphill, he will usually fall short. This concerns types such as Pogacar and Roglic. Maybe Pidcock in one or two years. But Roglic has gradually had his best time and will no longer be a match for Evenepoel in a few years .

So I think that in the future, and only in the Tour de France, Evenepoel will be able to compete for the podium, but it will be very difficult to beat Pogacar (Roglic, Pidcock). And even more difficult in the Giro and the Vuelta where the climbing is harder.

What Evenepoel can do is hit hard on hilly terrain. Of course he takes the risk to pay the bill for it later. Yet if his attack from afar fails. But then riders like Pogacar and Roglic, with their best "domestiques", have to react. Not sure if they always will or can. Also not sure the peloton will also keep their legs still and just watch the favorite or the man in the leader's jersey.
Evenepoel's only chance in a big Tour is to keep attacking on hilly terrain or in the middle mountains.... and hope for enough time trial kilometers.

Even assessment right now. I think.

His ability to rival the better climbers in a GT (or not lose too much time) will depend on his recovery. He would have to become Hinault - never a great climber, but someone who could go on long mountain raids simply because he was the strongest and recovered best. I would have to see that Remco had that quality and then he is up against a Pog who is one if not the best climber in the world and -- apparently -- shows otherworldy recovery in a three week GT.

He benefits in TTs from his amazing CdA. However, that won't help him in the long climbs and his watts/kg may not be top rank there, certainly doesn't look it so far this season.

He is targeting the opening ITT at TA next. But its just 13kms. Even if he does well there, he may only gain a handful of seconds on Pog. How can he possibly defend that? Unless he goes on a hilly raid...but Pog aint bad at that either...

I really hope he can challenge in the future. He is a very exciting rider. But he has to recover better than most and eventually be able to ride competitors off his wheel in the high mountains. Just not sure he will able to do that, tho I hope he can.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This is getting a bit too schizophrenic for my taste. He does great at Picon Blanco, beating Landa, Sosa, Yates, Carapaz... but either we forget about that or it supposedly doesn't matter since "covid/lockdown". But he gets dropped in the first MTF (similar length/slope) stage of the year in early February, losing * gasp * 40 seconds, and losing a few seconds on a short mur-type finish (same as 2 years ago as well, only now he didn't insist) and it's decided that he can't climb. If you guys only just found out he's not a pure or punchy climber, but a tempoclimber, then i don't know what you've been doing / watching (/ smoking) the past 4 years. He turned 22 last month, and already he should forget about his ambitions because there is one guy clearly better at the moment. Maybe he should stop cycling and join his father in constructionwork.

Last year there were similar arguments concerning his ITT, after nationals/Olympics where he didn't deliver. Now after his Algarve TT all of a sudden being a worldbeater at ITT is the best he can hope for with the benefits that may bring in other (smaller) races. Is he physically fullgrown? I don't know, he still looks like a boy. Much more so than for instance a 2 year younger Ayuso. So is it impossible to improve? I think there are plenty of examples of riders that grew into the best version of themselves rather late in their careers. Froome, Thomas, Wiggins, Roglic, Indurain... Indurain cracked his first top 20 in a GT on his 9th try. It took him 13 tries to win one.

I'm just gonna see what happens the rest of the year. And next. He still has plenty of catching up to do in terms of experience in climbing in competition, he's not done a lot of that since turning pro, and he skipped the U23s so didn't do Avenir or Baby Giro either. A ~62kg rider that can push big watts in 95k solos (remember Germany) and is worldclass in long ITT's should also be able to cope with a 1hour effort uphill, considering the length of the effort and w/kg ratio that he can push. Can he do it after a tough stage, can he do it in week 3? Who knows, but i doubt him losing 9 seconds whilst celebrating on Malhao will prove to be the marker that decides his faith.

 

[Nirvana]

You just don't like Remco but you hate all the attention he gets. No need to try to degrade him with name calling. Guess what? Remco is the man (look at today's stage). I have a feeling he's going to break your heart quite a lot.

Yeah, for sure, I'm going to cry in an angle heartbroken everytime he wins something until I can drown myself in alcohol enough to forget.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

This is getting a bit too schizophrenic for my taste. He does great at Picon Blanco, beating Landa, Sosa, Yates, Carapaz... but either we forget about that or it supposedly doesn't matter since "covid/lockdown". But he gets dropped in the first MTF (similar length/slope) stage of the year in early February, losing * gasp * 40 seconds, and losing a few seconds on a short mur-type finish (same as 2 years ago as well, only now he didn't insist) and it's decided that he can't climb. If you guys only just found out he's not a pure or punchy climber, but a tempoclimber, then i don't know what you've been doing / watching (/ smoking) the past 4 years. He turned 22 last month, and already he should forget about his ambitions because there is one guy clearly better at the moment. Maybe he should stop cycling and join his father in constructionwork.

Last year there were similar arguments concerning his ITT, after nationals/Olympics where he didn't deliver. Now after his Algarve TT all of a sudden being a worldbeater at ITT is the best he can hope for with the benefits that may bring in other (smaller) races. Is he physically fullgrown? I don't know, he still looks like a boy. Much more so than for instance a 2 year younger Ayuso. So is it impossible to improve? I think there are plenty of examples of riders that grew into the best version of themselves rather late in their careers. Froome, Thomas, Wiggins, Roglic, Indurain... Indurain cracked his first top 20 in a GT on his 9th try. It took him 13 tries to win one.

I'm just gonna see what happens the rest of the year. And next. He still has plenty of catching up to do in terms of experience in climbing in competition, he's not done a lot of that since turning pro, and he skipped the U23s so didn't do Avenir or Baby Giro either. A ~62kg rider that can push big watts in 95k solos (remember Germany) and is worldclass in long ITT's should also be able to cope with a 1hour effort uphill, considering the length of the effort and w/kg ratio that he can push. Can he do it after a tough stage, can he do it in week 3? Who knows, but i doubt him losing 9 seconds whilst celebrating on Malhao will prove to be the marker that decides his faith.

He is not a pure climber. More a tempo climber. But even then, I'm not sure he has the same qualities of a Hinault or an Indurain in tempo climbing. I also have the impression that the pace climbing is slightly less than two years ago. His serious injury will have something to do with that, and maybe for the rest of his career. Like with Van der poel.

I'm a bit concerned now that I've heard Tom Steels state that Evenepoel's time trial position was being worked on, because he still has back problems after his fall. And the back is the most important thing when you have to cycle briskly uphill. So I fear more and more that Evenepoel will not become the "grand tour" rider we all hoped for two to three years ago.

 

[greyclouds]

He didn't have the legs to beat any of the other WT class B climbers, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, or a sign that he can't climb. He will probably never become a monster climber, but that's not to say that he can't improve - see Almeida, who in 2020 was getting beaten by Hindley and TGH at the Giro, and in 2021 was pretty much-climbing neck and neck in the high mountain with the top climbers.

A few weeks ago I said that Remco's biggest challenge was consistency, but that was really not correct, as he is actually pretty consistent. His biggest challenge for the next step in his career is to target and prioritise the races he goes. There's no need for him to empty himself in the Coppa Bernochis and Baloise Tours; nor Algarves - what he needs, especially as he set himself for a very long season this year, is to peak and prioritise what's key for him to win, and how to win it. On that respect his performance in Algarve was the smartest he could be: arrive with the best in Fóia; do the best ITT he could, in order to secure the GC; control the tempo in Malhao, in order to avoid loosing much time. This way he grabbed another stage race win without emptying himself, and that's what clever riders do, as it also allows you to mask when you are not in such good form - think Tadej not caring so much about Milano-Torino or Tre Valli, with his eyes set in Lombardia. No one will remember Roglic's wins in Emilia and Milano-Torino, but everyone will know about Tadej's 2 monument victories in 2021.

 

[johnymax]

He didn't have the legs to beat any of the other WT class B climbers, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, or a sign that he can't climb. He will probably never become a monster climber, but that's not to say that he can't improve - see Almeida, who in 2020 was getting beaten by Hindley and TGH at the Giro, and in 2021 was pretty much-climbing neck and neck in the high mountain with the top climbers.

A few weeks ago I said that Remco's biggest challenge was consistency, but that was really not correct, as he is actually pretty consistent. His biggest challenge for the next step in his career is to target and prioritise the races he goes. There's no need for him to empty himself in the Coppa Bernochis and Baloise Tours; nor Algarves - what he needs, especially as he set himself for a very long season this year, is to peak and prioritise what's key for him to win, and how to win it. On that respect his performance in Algarve was the smartest he could be: arrive with the best in Fóia; do the best ITT he could, in order to secure the GC; control the tempo in Malhao, in order to avoid loosing much time. This way he grabbed another stage race win without emptying himself, and that's what clever riders do, as it also allows you to mask when you are not in such good form - think Tadej not caring so much about Milano-Torino or Tre Valli, with his eyes set in Lombardia. No one will remember Roglic's wins in Emilia and Milano-Torino, but everyone will know about Tadej's 2 monument victories in 2021.

I will remember Roglic's wins in Emilia and Milano-Torino. They were great. And probably you will remember them too, I'm guessing.

But I get what you are saying. It's just that...Remco is barely 22. It's not a bad thing for him to grab some small victories in the process and gradually improve. Not everyone is a Pogačar. But yeah, he's become too good to target them. From now on Remco should target bigger races. His next goal should be winning one week WT races. In other words, he should become the next Simon Špilak first, then start looking ahead towards other goals.