Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2024 (March 18-24)

[Froome]

Tourmalet from Gripp (top with 47 km to go in the Tour last year) has similar altitude, but is a bit longer. Tourmalet (2115 m), last 12.37 km at 8.83 %, Vingegaard and Pogi: 36'54", VAM: 1775 m/h, 6.16 W/kg [Dr.F].

If it rains tomorrow, they won't go sub-30'. ~29'30" should be doable in good conditions.

Vingegaard did 6.2 w/kg in the last 33 minutes of La loze, and the conditions of that perfomance were worse than the conditions of tomorrow, it's a unipuerto stage.
La loze was more long, after 16 days and a hard TT, high altitude than Vallter 2000 (2350 m, Vallter 2150), and the stage was more harder.

I don't think 6.4 w/kg is difficult to achieve.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Oh well, a lost opportunity. I guess thats 3 stages then and around 2 minutes in GC?

I had him winning stages 2, 3, 6, and 7 before the start.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not directly, but plenty of indicators to me that it's easily possible on easy stage.

Ok, I admit that freshness of riders (start of the race, not too difficult stage) is a factor that can help Pog clock 29 minutes. Last year they did some ridiculous VAM here in Catalunya on an easy stage ending with a low elevation climb.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Original result shows him at 3:47 back.

That's tough break.

 

[Netserk]

Vallter 2000 often has a tailwind. They will have cross/tail tomorrow too, but most likely also rain, which is why I don't think they will go super fast.

 

[Brullnux]

Was there 3km rule cause otherwise this race really is over.

Small question – in cases like these, where some people obviously gap others, doesn't it not make more sense to use 3km rule re peloton rather than the winning group? Especially when the split was in no way caused by the crash.

 

[Netserk]

Small question – in cases like these, where some people obviously gap others, doesn't it not make more sense to use 3km rule re peloton rather than the winning group? Especially when the split was in no way caused by the crash.

Afaik, the 3 seconds-rule was also in effect, so there was no real gap in the front.

 

[roundabout]

Small question – in cases like these, where some people obviously gap others, doesn't it not make more sense to use 3km rule re peloton rather than the winning group? Especially when the split was in no way caused by the crash.

If you mean people getting the time of Schultz despite there being a gap, it was because of a sprinter stage protocol being applied.

Which is I think is a bit iffy for a stage ending uphill, but maybe it was also because of the run-in.

Edit:

7.2 STAGES EXPECTED TO FINISH IN BUNCH SPRINT The following stages have been identified as « expected to finish in bunch sprint »:- Stage 1, 4 and 5 During these stages, the protocol of calculation of time gaps for stages “expected to finish in bunch sprints” published on the UCI website in the Regulations section will be applied.

https://storage-aso.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_vcc/reglament-volta-a-catalunya-2024.pdf

 

[Brullnux]

Yeah also meant in the case of a sprint stage, and someone attacks 1.5km out and wins by 5s, it feels wrong that they are then put s/t by an unconnected crash in the peloton that had no bearing on their win or gap.

So would I be right in saying in the hypothetical situation, the winner wouldn't be s/t because of the 3s gap rule?

 

[topcat]

Kuss to win tomorrow (I've seen his data).

 

[roundabout]

Yeah also meant in the case of a sprint stage, and someone attacks 1.5km out and wins by 5s, it feels wrong that they are then put s/t by an unconnected crash in the peloton that had no bearing on their win or gap.

So would I be right in saying in the hypothetical situation, the winner wouldn't be s/t because of the 3s gap rule?

I think so, yes.

 

[dobrien]

Kuss to win tomorrow (I've seen his data).

I would love to see that!!

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Kuss to win tomorrow (I've seen his data).

Pogi is shaking in his boots right now

 

[Froome]

Kuss to win tomorrow (I've seen his data).

What is the FTP of Kuss? Higher than 6.63 w/kg?

 

[Nick2413]

I don’t get the vibe they’re going for records tomorrow. Pog may want to test out the engine in the high mountains though.

 

[jmdirt]

GREAT finish! rail down a mountain, carve through town, attack early and hold on!

 

[Cookster15]

I don’t get the vibe they’re going for records tomorrow. Pog may want to test out the engine in the high mountains though.

Agree. Unless it’s changed in recent years the “big guys” usually only used these races to test their progress towards the level they wanted in grand tours.

Having said this Vingegaard was very impressive in winning O Gran Camino and T/A. Pog might also want to deliberately measure his efforts in his first stage race of the season as he wants to give himself a good shot at attempting the unthinkable - the double.

 

[Rob5091]

Chapeau Schultz for hanging on, but a shame for the guys in the crashes. Todays a big day for seeing who's in form.

 

[yaco]

So Yates actually lost a minute? What happened to him? He's been missing since his team hoed him out to the sponsors.

He is recovering from illness which forced him to miss PN - He will be in shape for Basque Country.

 

[Rob5091]

Yeah also meant in the case of a sprint stage, and someone attacks 1.5km out and wins by 5s, it feels wrong that they are then put s/t by an unconnected crash in the peloton that had no bearing on their win or gap.

So would I be right in saying in the hypothetical situation, the winner wouldn't be s/t because of the 3s gap rule?

I think that is why it's normal with the 10 second bonus for the winner so the winner is rewarded for being first over the line, regardless of whta happens behind him/her.

 

[Elos Anjos]

It's not easy to beat such a record by over a minute considering the names that participated in the past. 29 minutes would mean 1775 m/h of VAM on a 7.6% climb (circa 6.4 w/kg). Normally it's plausible but this elevation can hamper performance by like 0.2 w/kg compared to a climb 1000 m lower. My guess is around 29'30''.

Those times seem to be highly dependant on the pace of the peloton or a team train before a rider attacking.

 

[search]

Jay Vine is a DNS with stomach problems

 

[Netserk]

Jay Vine is a DNS with stomach problems

If it's always up to UAE to chase, maybe the breakaway will make it in one of those stages that suit Pogi.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Vine is a completely useless rider. Even if he was clearly only recruited as a PR ploy to promote the UAE's Zwift rival, that signing is a disaster.

 

[shadowrider]

Terrible tactics from UAE. Again. Smoke their own riders too early. As we have already seen several times this season. Also Saturday in Milano-San Remo. And Almeida who again proved not to be very smart. After the descent, there was no one from UAE to be seen outside Pogacar. He then started his final rush much too late on the sloping finish. It is clear that Pogacar now looks frustrated and irritated. Third in San-Remo. Second yesterday due to his own fault. But that's bad news for the opponents. I am sure that today on the final climb he will not ride like wheel sucker Roglic normally does. By attacking or jumping only the last few hundred meters. Pogacar will attack relatively early on the final climb and not only win but also gain a lot of time on the opponents. Good for the spectacle !