Yowzer, plenty to get through!
Hitch You say the only GC contenders to not take the other GTs seriously are the Schlecks. Then two paragraphs down you highlight how Di Luca bet a very young Andy Schleck in 2007 (before Schleck's natural peak). It’d be better if you picked an example where a proven TdF podium contender (preferably a confirmed cheat and in their prime) took a year to instead focus on the Vuelta or Giro and got thumped by the contenders there. But you’d need more than one isolated example to present a case that the Giro/Vuelta are as ultimately competitive as the TdF.
In no way am I completely discounting non-TdF results or trying to be disrespectful to the Vuelta or Giro. I am saying, for the ultimate benchmark of the ultimate atheletes involved in GTs, the TdF has to be where you look – it’s the daddy in terms of the names that enter it and the prestige. There are so many cyclists, like Nibali (who I am a fan of), who clearly decide they can’t compete in the TdF, so they should look elsewhere. In 2009 he didn’t go to the Giro, focussed on the TdF and could only muster 7th. We haven’t seen him at the TdF since.
Its part of the reason why I am tipping an underprepared & recently injured Van den Broeck to beat the defending Vuelta champion in this contest. In my opinion, VdB’s 5th (only 6mins off the victory) in last years TdF was at least comparable to Nibali’s Vuelta victory (I actually think it was a stronger performance). Again, all subjective and I’m sure some of you would disagree (but it sounds like Nibali was destined for second until Anton crashed out).
Being less mountainous and attracting less pure climbers, I’d imagine the TdF suits Menchov more than the Giro, so him doing better in the TdF in 2008 is not necessarily a sign of that being weaker (although the 2008 edition of the TdF was incredibly weak, which is why we should not be surprised by Sastre winning it). On the flip side, Menchov has perhaps managed to have the ultimate Vuelta & Giro success and disappoint at the TdF, because of the calibre of opposition.
I will bow to others opinions of Mancebo & Heras standards, many of you will have seen them perform more than I have. I was merely contesting the claim that they were in any way markedly superior to Sastre (even assuming Sastre was doping at the same level as them). A comparison of their career GT achievements shows them to be fairly even in my personal opinion. Heras does considerably better in the Vuelta, Sastre does considerably better in the TdF, Mancebo does consistently good in both. I'd argue that none of the three is considered a truly elite athelete. Heras was happy to be a domestique for a time (despite cheating), Mancebo never won a GT (despite cheating) and I’d argue Sastre is very talented, consistent and intelligent rather than an elite athelete (he may even concede the same himself).
ultimobici
ultimobici said:
What you are overlooking time and again is the context for a rider's results in a race.
1. I don’t think that is a fair reflection. What you are overlooking is the occasions above when I have gone into detail about specific tours and specific stages (admittedly primarily 2008 TdF, but also a stage in the 2003 TdF when Sastre bet USPostal on the climb. You’ll note I acknowledged it was a very good example, before I realised one explanation would be that, in not seeing Sastre as a threat, Ullrich & Armstrong marked each other instead and let him run off.
I’ve asked for people to pick apart specific rebuttles I’ve made (rather than largely ignore them and instead make up a new example). The one time I was queried there, I conceded I may have been wrong. It has subsequently turned out I might have been right after all and that Sastre did give his only main attack/effort on the Alpe rather than respond to Ricco’s attack. I honestly can’t remember either way and its not a major point at all. What it is though, is evidence I’m not ignoring is the context of a rider’s result in a race.
Besides, it appears someone like Roundabout has a greater knowledge than me, and is so better placed to respond to your “context within a race” (thanks for that). What I’d add to that is that Sastre was only 26 when he left ONCE wasn’t he? Again, he was not as his peak, so its understandable he might not have been a clear GC prospect in his youth. Who can say how a 26 year will perform as a GC contender when they are 29/30? For every Andy Schleck there is a Robert Gessink.
Sastre was not considered a GT contender by any DS until his move to CSC. Even then he was more of a loose cannon looking for stage wins in the mountains, getting into the top 10 was almost a byproduct.
2. I don't think it’s a remotely valid point to suggest Sastre's massive string of GT top 10s was because he raced for stage wins rather than the overall. I can't think of anybody else who was stage win focussed that then "inadvertantly" got almost a dozen top ten GT finishes as an accidental by product. Perhaps someone can correct me though. But that argument actually undermines the case for Sastre doping. If you are saying his high GT finishes were due to him being ignored by leading GC contenders then you are undermining the argument that he only did so well in GTs because he was doping.
Pointing out his squeaky cleanliness is fraught with problems too. Kelme, ONCE & CSC have some of the murkiest histories in the sport. He must have gone around the team hotel in a blindfold with is iPod on full volume to avoid accidentally witnessing nefarious activity!
3. I have not pointed out Sastre’s squeaky cleanliness, as I’ve said repeatedly, its impossible to prove that he (or anyone else on the planet) has never taken EPO. What I have said is that I remain unconvinced by any argument in this thread (or elsewhere) that there is clear evidence of Sastre doping, or even justifiable overwhelming suspicion. I maintain he is still very much in the No Case To Answer column and therefore fit for me to cheer on during this Vuelta.
4. The example of Moncoutie shows it may well be entirely possible for a clean rider to stay in a team and not stick their nose into what their teammates are sticking into their arms. Being in the same team in no way means you all behave the same or cheat the same.
To deride Heras's Tour record is, as has been mentioned, ignoring his role at Postal. He was a Domestique Deluxe for Armstrong, effectively removing a rival in the process.
5. I did not deride Heras’ TdF record.
We remain in this thread in the position where 8 of the 9 riders in the Vuelta prediction poll haven’t previously tested positive or have extremely murky past performances that clearly point to doping. I think that is brilliant and far better than I expected (I don’t know much about Menchov, Anton, Rodriguez and Nibali’s performances outwith the TdF so I was fearing there would be many examples of them making ridiculously aggressive performances or having been the subject of extremely strong and incriminating first hand testimony or corroborated testimony. Actually, I only just twigged that ultimobici included Kloden as a confirmed cheat, so it may only be 7 out of the 9 contenders. Still much better than I thought and besides Kloden is no longer a contender in this Vuelta, so I’m not too bothered anyway. I don't like him as a rider as he has shown a lack of ambition throughout his entire career which I find very disappointing.)