Vuelta 2012, Stage 12: Vilagarcía de Arousa > Mirador de Ézaro (190,5 kms)

[Miburo]

Tbh Contador is very capable on this type of finish possibly better than anyone in the peloton asides from one or two riders, but Purito is basically untouchable...

Well Evans and Gilbert beat him on the Muur and this is even harder.

Purito is a genius on this, no doubt. But the few times we've seen Contador do this he was always with the best and he wasn't even in top shape.

If one guy can beat purito tomorrow it's Contador, that easy.

Valverde showed many times that he's not great at this, too steep for him. Gilbert is getting good but he needs 2011-shape for this and I doubt he has that right now. A bit too steep for him.

 

[cineteq]

Purito
Phil +6"
Piti +12"
Froome +17"
Alberto s.t.

Purito needs the bonus seconds badly, and Katusha will control the break closely. This is a must win.

Rodriguez
Valverde, Contador, Moreno +9
Froome, Gesink +22

 

[DominicDecoco]

What is amazing is that this stage finishes on a climb with an average of 13.10% and yet is rated a flat stage

They are only categorizing the stages as either TT, plain or mountainous.

Now, it wouldn't be right to call this a mountain stage, would it? I wouldn't call it hilly either if they actually had a cat for that. A plain stage is what it is.

 

[Califootman]

I'm probably wrong, but to me this just looks too steep for Purito. I do agree that he will be super motivated to get the win and bonus seconds here, though... so perhaps he can pull it off.

I would actually favor Contador on this slope if he were at full strength and motivated... but I think he might be wanting to conserve effort (both his and his team's) for the tough stages ahead this weekend, so I'm not sure he'll throw it all out there in an effort to claim the stage or the red jersey on Thursday.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Makes my legs hurt just thinking about it. I guess I can sleep in a little tomorrow since all of the action will be in the last 5 KM.

The only thing scarier than riding up that 'THING' at the end is descending it. Are those buildings at the bottom and top churches, hospitals? Why only 2? They need a cemetery at the bottom. 29% .... wtf....

 

[Descender]

I'm probably wrong, but to me this just looks too steep for Purito. I do agree that he will be super motivated to get the win and bonus seconds here, though... so perhaps he can pull it off.

I would actually favor Contador on this slope if he were at full strength and motivated... but I think he might be wanting to conserve effort (both his and his team's) for the tough stages ahead this weekend, so I'm not sure he'll throw it all out there in an effort to claim the stage or the red jersey on Thursday.

There is nothing "too steep for Purito".

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Another factor that should be considered is Gilbert, I may be too optimistic but he seems to be close too 2011 form currently and in that form this stage would have been easy pickings even against Purito.

nahh too long and too steep for Gilbert.

Just looking at the statistics; this is 500 meters longer and on average almost 4% steeper. When it's this steep, there's just nothing that can beat Purito.

He might do okay, but if he wins a stage finishing on a 1800m climb with an average of over 13% against Rodriguez......

I really just can't see past Purito for this climb.

 

[maltiv]

There's no way Katusha will let a breakaway go when there are bonus seconds up for grabs, which Purito almost certainly will win.

I think Froome will lose 20-30 seconds.

 

[Red Rick]

If you blow up with 500m to go you're gonna lose tens of seconds here, i think the gc favourites are gonna be very cautious with attacking here

 

[jsem94]

Purito wins as long as he doesn't get caught up in a crash or crosswinds.

 

[Froome19]

nahh too long and too steep for Gilbert.

Just looking at the statistics; this is 500 meters longer and on average almost 4% steeper. When it's this steep, there's just nothing that can beat Purito.

He might do okay, but if he wins a stage finishing on a 1800m climb with an average of over 13% against Rodriguez......

I really just can't see past Purito for this climb.

The Mur is slightly easier, but when in full flight Gilbert totally dominated that climb. If he can do that he can do it here...

 

[airstream]

Having a look at Contador on Zoncolan, I caught myself thinking he likes continuous large steepness not very much, though he could save himself on that day surely. On the other hand, Alejandro doesn't like long ramps even more. So Alberto shouldn't have big problems with getting the second, if Alex won't surprise us again. Froome is an uncertain figure, but this man never gives up.

 

[No_Balls]

Purito must have serious connections with Unipublic. Another day in red past this. More bonus seconds and a stage win again. Still happy for the lad. He fought tooth and nails today.

 

[Panda Claws]

I cannot imagine Gilbert being a factor here.

 

[will10]

So Katusha control all day long, Purito 1st, Moreno 3rd, all GC guys within 30 seconds.

 

[hrotha]

My prediction: we'll get about 5 minutes of action, and then people will talk about how awesome and exciting the Vuelta is.

 

[roundabout]

I think the climb is heavy enough so we will get a whole 7 minutes.

 

[Panda Claws]

My prediction: we'll get about 5 minutes of action, and then people will talk about how awesome and exciting the Vuelta is.

Well, it IS a full 3 minutes more excitement than the Tour.

 

[webvan]

Is this a case of being too steep for any gaps to open?

 

[roundabout]

What do you mean? 20%, no draft, most w/kg easily wins as long as the gearing is right and he doesn't start in a bad position.

 

[seaby71]

I think the break will stay away tomorrow, no other team will work with katusha to pull it back. They all know what will happen if the break is pulled back. i dont think katusha will have the power to pull it back alone. i imagine a big break away of about 10 - 15 riders and they will make it to the end. Jrod will be better to save his energies and his team for the harder days to come and not cook his team for the bonus seconds. He can still attack at the end of the stage anyway

 

[Panda Claws]

1. Rodriguez
2. Valverde op 4"
3. Contador op 9"
4. Froome op 17"
...
16. Gilbert op 49"

 

[hrotha]

Well, it IS a full 3 minutes more excitement than the Tour.

I disagree entirely.

 

[ferryman]

I think the break will stay away tomorrow, no other team will work with katusha to pull it back. They all know what will happen if the break is pulled back. i dont think katusha will have the power to pull it back alone. i imagine a big break away of about 10 - 15 riders and they will make it to the end. Jrod will be better to save his energies and his team for the harder days to come and not cook his team for the bonus seconds. He can still attack at the end of the stage anyway

WOT no Sky train? I don't compute, I don't compute

 

[Eyeballs Out]

One danger on this stage is that it the 3 km rule won't apply so fingers crossed there are no crashes in the km of chaos before the climb starts