Vuelta 2018 Stage 4:Vélez-Málaga - La Alfaguara 161.4km

[Midnightfright]

I think this is for the break. Not sure Movistar will be interested in chasing for Valverde.

With 50km of flat to start the stage it's hard to predict, but someone from BMC will be there (Demarchi and/or Tuens, most likely, especially since they both dropped time on Stage 3) and Benoot, who knows this area well.

Teuns and Demarchi are both excellent shouts. Now that BMC are essentially stage hunting they could see this as an ideal stage for Teuns

 

[Blanco]

I think Sky and Movistar will control the stage and keep the break on the short leash. On the final climb I expect Sky to set the tempo for Kwiatkowski, not very high though... But from town of Alfacar where the road becomes narrow and ramps get steeper, Movistar could put the pressure on. They could try something similar to what MS did at the Etna stage, with Quintana attacking on the steep ramps and Valverde following. Of course it depends on Quintana, if he's willing to take that risk.

 

[Red Rick]

If there's one problem for Valverde to win this stage it might be that the climb is a little too hard to control without Quintana having to work for him.

The alternative is that Quintana actually attacks and Valverde gets to laugh at people while sitting on wheels

 

[DFA123]

Re:

If there's one problem for Valverde to win this stage it might be that the climb is a little too hard to control without Quintana having to work for him.

The alternative is that Quintana actually attacks and Valverde gets to laugh at people while sitting on wheels

I think this would definitely seem to be Movistar's best strategy. But history suggests they will just sit and let the break take it, and hope they have enough to win the race on Lagos and in Andorra.

Perhaps its too hot for Quintana though, and he will just try to keep in a solid position until they head north.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

If there's one problem for Valverde to win this stage it might be that the climb is a little too hard to control without Quintana having to work for him.

The alternative is that Quintana actually attacks and Valverde gets to laugh at people while sitting on wheels

I think this would definitely seem to be Movistar's best strategy. But history suggests they will just sit and let the break take it, and hope they have enough to win the race on Lagos and in Andorra.

Perhaps its too hot for Quintana though, and he will just try to keep in a solid position until they head north.

I don't think they'll wait that long. I looked at the profile of La Covatilla yesterday and that climb is perfectly suited for Quintana. It has a very hard stretch in the middle.

 

[RattaKuningas]

I think that Quintana will be in leaders jersey after today's stage.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I fear Movi will try to control as much as they can so Bala can do his thing at the end..
how many times have we seen this?? even if Nairo have the legs...

If Nairo has the legs and wants to attack, I really doubt Valverde or Unzue can stop him from doing that

 

[MrTea1976]

Kwiatkowski could hold red here. I think Yates and EF will go well today.

 

[Arked]

Too many big names will be interested in winning this stage (Movistar - Valverde and Quintana, UAE - Martin, Bora - Majka, EF - Uran etc, M-S - one of the Yates, dunno which). No chance for weak brake to hold off such force chasing them.

 

[42x16ss]

All I know is that it’s too early for Porte and Nibali to start playing joker for stages. We won’t know who’s going to win the Vuelta this stage but I think we’re going to find out who can’t.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Kwiatkowski could hold red here. I think Yates and EF will go well today.

So, you're mentioning 10 riders who could potentially do well?

 

[Robert5091]

Luis Angel Mate to get KOM points at La Cabra, then Sky to let loose their newest climbing sensation!

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski could hold red here. I think Yates and EF will go well today.

So, you're mentioning 10 riders who could potentially do well?

There's probably more then that!

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The final climb is more like a Cat 2 than a Cat 1. The real GC contenders should wait for a proper MTF

 

[barmaher]

There's a whole bunch of guys who need to show themselves if they want to be podium material - Pinot, Zakarin, Bennett, Martin, Aru etc.

Martin won't be going for a podium.

He was in a group of soft pedallers yesterday, along with Adam Yates, Hirt and Theuns. I expect these lads to be in breakaways in the later mountain stages.

 

[search]

There's a whole bunch of guys who need to show themselves if they want to be podium material - Pinot, Zakarin, Bennett, Martin, Aru etc.

Martin won't be going for a podium.

He was in a group of soft pedallers yesterday, along with Adam Yates, Hirt and Theuns. I expect these lads to be in breakaways in the later mountain stages.

Hirt had all kind of issues over the summer, and (the way I understood it) there's about nothing to be expected from him in this Vuelta

 

[ice&fire]

There's a whole bunch of guys who need to show themselves if they want to be podium material - Pinot, Zakarin, Bennett, Martin, Aru etc.

Martin won't be going for a podium.

He was in a group of soft pedallers yesterday, along with Adam Yates, Hirt and Theuns. I expect these lads to be in breakaways in the later mountain stages.

Martin's wife is expected to give birth to a baby in the coming days. According to Matxín he will be allowed to leave the race as soon as he considers it necessary. He's only for stage wins.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Break of the day:

Ben Gastauer (AG2R), Nikita Stalnov (Astana), Jelle Wallays (Lotto Soudal), Ben King (Dimension Data), Pierre Rolland (EF-Drapac), Lars Boom (LottoNL-Jumbo), Oscar Cabedo (Burgos-BH), Luis Angel Maté (Cofidis), Aritz Bagües (Euskadi-Murias)

 

[The Chicken]

INB4 Porte climbs off.

 

[SafeBet]

Wilco to outsprint Valverde and get his first win in 3 years.
First of many.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Wilco to outsprint Valverde and get his first win in 3 years.
First of many.

I doubt this would be possible even if Valverde sprints backwards

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Mark Padun will win this stage.

Edit: OK, I guess he won't I'll go with the more obvious Valverde then.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

INB4 Porte climbs off.

DNF?

 

[markene2]

If the break goes in i am betting on Stalnov, if not then Yates

 

[The Chicken]

Re: Re:

INB4 Porte climbs off.

DNF?

Yeh, that's what I'm expecting anyway.