Vuelta a España Vuelta 2025, stage 20: Robledo de Chavela - Bola del Mundo - Puerto de Navacerrada (164.8 km)

[Red Rick]

That's ~0.5 W/kg? For the 30 minutes before a 13 minute effort (and Vine went hard the last few km of it), that should count for a lot.

Obviously. Ofcourse the riders are way better than in 2012. And Navacerrada is much closer to 20 minutes than 30.

The only reason I point out the Bola del Mundo time is that I think it's harder to get the power down on a *** surface with those gradients, and that tired riders in those conditions don't create big gaps at all. Somehow, instead of riders making gaps while being 1% better due to the gradient, they just cluster together a bit until they leave it all out in the final 100m.

 

[Netserk]

Obviously. Ofcourse the riders are way better than in 2012. And Navacerrada is much closer to 20 minutes than 30.

The only reason I point out the Bola del Mundo time is that I think it's harder to get the power down on a *** surface with those gradients, and that tired riders in those conditions don't create big gaps at all. Somehow, instead of riders making gaps while being 1% better due to the gradient, they just cluster together a bit until they leave it all out in the final 100m.

D'oh.

Say they did ~5.5 for 22 minutes in 2012 steadily and ~6.1 for 20 minutes yesterday with a split of 10' @5.9 + 10' @6.3.

And both years end with 13' @6.5.

Is that totally off do you think?

There may be some compression at the front from more uneven pacing, where especially Riccitello and somewhat also Pidcock went more steady, while Almeida went over what he could sustain. Big differences come when it's the weaker riders who pace unevenly, as they go over their limit to start with.

 

[Red Rick]

D'oh.

Say they did ~5.5 for 22 minutes in 2012 steadily and ~6.1 for 20 minutes yesterday with a split of 10' @5.9 + 10' @6.3.

And both years end with 13' @6.5.

Is that totally off do you think?

There may be some compression at the front from more uneven pacing, where especially Riccitello and somewhat also Pidcock went more steady, while Almeida went over what he could sustain. Big differences come when it's the weaker riders who pace unevenly, as they go over their limit to start with.

I don't know if the split is 5.9 and then 6.3 per se I'd guess there's slightly more variablity just depending on gradient, so if I'm UAE I want Vine to hit that 9.5% km of Navacerrada at 6.5 or higher.

But yeah the compression at the front is the real issue with this climb, it's not hard enough to force a perfect pacing strategy for the best riders, and so you naturally get ideal pacing for like the 10th best rider maybe, and as a result it's the gaps behind that that blow up.

Still, gaps today were uncharacteristically small compared to 2012 and even 2010, but in those years gaps within the top 5 were bigger than yesterday. Vingegaards' superiority even yesterday wasn't that great if you ask me, I've never seen him pull faces like he did in the final km.

Cuitu Negru very much has the same issue, with the very long easier part of the climb artifically bringing the pace down on that section, and then having an even more annoying bit of recovery before they hit the ski slopes. Riders that are put over the limit collapse, but gaps on the steep section among those that have energy left in reserve are fairly limited. Tre Cime di Lavaredo has the same problem IMO

Contrast that with Angliru where the base is only like 13 minutes, and steep enough to just smash domestiques in, and you get the opposite effect. Riders are pretty much dying on Les Cabanes already.

The other big issue for me is that it's just not nearly long enough to be a true attrition climb, which does work with Col de la Loze, which is where riders will just get dropped from the back at some point doing under 5.5 W/kg, and where 6W/kg in the front for the last 30 minutes actually does make huge gaps.

 

[Charlyghoul]

How many times have three Americans finished in the top ten of a vuelta? Or any grand tour?

 

[ice&fire]

How many times have three Americans finished in the top ten of a vuelta? Or any grand tour?

Armstrong, Leipheimer, Landis, TDF 2005. Would that be a valid answer?

 

[Rob5091]

Hats off to The Man to Watch coming in 20th (in front of Bernal etc) on the stage - Chumil!

 

[Charlyghoul]

Armstrong, Leipheimer, Landis, TDF 2005. Would that be a valid answer?

I guess it can’t be…
I asked AI and it said it hadn’t happened before. But I asked if it had happened that two Americans had done so and it was wrong about that saying no, so I don’t know the real answer.

 

[Sciatic]

Interesting finish results that indicated what a grind those last 3 kms were: the first 27 riders all had separate finish times. And in the first 99 riders across the line there were no "groups" bigger than two riders together.

 

[Red Rick]

Interesting finish results that indicated what a grind those last 3 kms were: the first 27 riders all had separate finish times. And in the first 99 riders across the line there were no "groups" bigger than two riders together.

that's a specific feature of the final 100m being super steep

 

[KoopaCycling]

why did wva go to canada?

 

[RedheadDane]

why did wva go to canada?

To avoid Bola del Mundo?

 

[ice&fire]

To avoid Bola del Mundo?

I have avoided Bola del Mundo too without going to Canada

 

[CyclistAbi]

Proper stage and fight for sealing te overall.